What do the Edgware and Totterdige byelection results tell us

Reading the local press coverage of the Edgware and Totteridge council byelection results, made depressing reading for a Labour supporter such as myself at first glance. Both Tory candidates had much improved majorities on their predecessors. Departing Councillor Richard Weider notes in his blog that Darrel Yawitch is the most popular councillor in the borough ! Whilst Darrel may put this down to the fact that he's a much better looking guy than poor old Richard, I suspect that the performance of David Cameron is probably a more valid explanation. Since the departure of Tony Blair, Prime Ministers Questions have turned into a weekly bear bating session. Whilst even at his lowest, Blair could always be relied on to put in a good performance, Gordon Brown's only conceivable strategy I can discerne is to go for the sympathy vote. Ministers resign, back benchers queue up to stick the knife in. Every Conservative friend I have and I have quite a lot, were in a state of pre-orgasmic delight at the posibilty of voting. I knew that the Tories would get a big vote. Even those who are, shall we say, not too keen on the local Barnet party, felt duty bound to "send Gordon a message".

Darrel Yawitch and Alison Cornelius did very well. I should imagine they could sit back last night and have a glass or two of bubbly and think "job done". From what I've been told, as Tories candidates go, they are both decent and hard working. I doubt that this time next year, after the full elections, they will be back down to the jobcentre, especially as they are in extremely safe wards. They are both safe pairs of hands and I'm sure they will do a good job.

What can we deduce about the Labour vote? As both seats were firmly Tory with no prospect whatsoever of a Labour victory, especially in the current political climate, I fully expected a catastrophic slump in both seats. I had contacted both the Labour and Lib Dem leader on behalf of the Barnet Community Campaign to ask them to stand asside so that we could have put up a single issue "anti sheltered housing warden cut" candidate. Both refused, saying that it was party policy to stand a candidate. I may be wrong, but I honestly believe that such a candidate would have given both Alison and Darrel a run for their money. One thing I know for certain is that there would have been a willing flood of volunteers canvassing. As it is, friends tell me that virtually no leaflets were dropped in Totteridge or Edgware. It was a shamefully missed opportunity. Oh and if you were wondering, I was strongly asked to stand, but being a councillor really isn't my thing.

As the Lab/Lib's wouldn't stand aside, we took the view that their was no prospect of success, therefore it would damage the campaign. If the anti warden cut vote had a three way split, we'd fail and I would not sanction such a monumental effort being totally wasted.

Which takes us on to the Labour and Lib Dem vote. As I said I expected a collapse. As it was they did better in Totteridge than at the last election and about the same in Edgware. The same is true of the Lib Dems. I expected them to be wiped out. Given the state of the party nationally, the fact that the seats were safe and the low level of canvassing, I had no expectation whatsoever of anything other than abject failure. Why did so many turn out for such a hopeless cause? As far as I am concerned, it is because of the hated scheme to scrap wardens. This will never derail a Tory in a safe seat, but I suspect that had either seat been a marginal, we may have seen some rather different results.

In hindsight, I honestly wish that the Barnet Community Campaign had persuaded Vicki Morris to stand as candidate in Edgware. We will never know, but we could have then compared the results of Edgware with Totteridge and really know how well supported we were. As it was there was no real candidate of protest.