It looks like Matthew Offord has been shafted in the Boundary commission carve up of Barnet. The three existing constituencies are being consolidated into two smaller ones. Here are the details.
As you can see, Hendon has been carved up.It looks as if this could have some rather interesting effects on the relations between our three MP's. My understanding is that usually the one with the biggest chunk of the cionstituency gets to keep it. Assuming that the Lib Dem vote doesn't collapse, Chipping Barnet looks to me as if it may become a three way marginal - very interesting. Edgware looks like it is going to be safe Labour. Finchley & Hendon - Tory / Lab (although the Lib Dem stronghold may add some spice in Childs Hill), Southgate & East Barnet looks like a Tory/Lab fight.
Theresa Villiers may have an interesting time as a nearly half the ward don't know her. She won't be nearly as comfy, especially if the electorate have tired of the Tories. Freer keeps 75% of his old stomping ground and he's dumped the Labour stronghold of Woodhouse. Gaining a Tory Stronghold in Hendon and the Lab held ward of West Hendon.
Oh well Matthew, good luck in your new job !
As you can see, Hendon has been carved up.It looks as if this could have some rather interesting effects on the relations between our three MP's. My understanding is that usually the one with the biggest chunk of the cionstituency gets to keep it. Assuming that the Lib Dem vote doesn't collapse, Chipping Barnet looks to me as if it may become a three way marginal - very interesting. Edgware looks like it is going to be safe Labour. Finchley & Hendon - Tory / Lab (although the Lib Dem stronghold may add some spice in Childs Hill), Southgate & East Barnet looks like a Tory/Lab fight.
Theresa Villiers may have an interesting time as a nearly half the ward don't know her. She won't be nearly as comfy, especially if the electorate have tired of the Tories. Freer keeps 75% of his old stomping ground and he's dumped the Labour stronghold of Woodhouse. Gaining a Tory Stronghold in Hendon and the Lab held ward of West Hendon.
Oh well Matthew, good luck in your new job !
Oh no !!!! what is Hendon going to do without it,s famous soup waiter.
ReplyDeleteSo how much has Manuels 106 majority been cut down to now ?
Sorry to say this but this isn't the Boundary Commission, but an attempt by Democratic Audit to guess what the Boundary Commission will propose. We'll find out about the actual proposals in September and they don't get finalised until autumn 2013.
ReplyDelete“Assuming the LibDem vote doesn’t collapse”
ReplyDeleteYou having a laugh Rog? Of course it will collapse. The LibDems will be annihilated at the next General Election.
Enfield Southgate seems to have the same wards as in Barnet, Roger.
ReplyDeleteI didn't mean it was your mistake.
ReplyDeleteDCMD
ReplyDeleteA week is a long time in politics, so I wouldn't assume too much if I were you.
Baarnet & David Boothroyd,
I think you'll agree it's an interesting piece of information even if there are mistakes. My information is that (barring mistakes) this is likely to be how things look, but then my info may be wrong. Apologies if the health warning wasn't given.
Never mind eh Manuel!!,you can always apply for your job back at the BBC,and it will all be nice and cosy again with the rest of your Consocialist chums !!!!....
ReplyDelete@baarnett - I've emailed them about 'Southgate and East Barnet' and they've replied saying are getting back to me with correction.
ReplyDeleteDH: I've kept an eye on the original web file.
ReplyDeleteThey changed the file (perhaps they read Barnet Eye!), but they introduced a new mistake. They have now reverted to the (wrong) original!
Hopefully your email will galvanise them to correct it properly.
I see their constituency suggestions are based on grouping certain boroughs together. So if the Boundary Commission chooses different groups, presumably the end result will be very different, and the Soup Waiter will still be in with a (slight) chance.
I think it's a shame if the Boundary Commission insists that no constituency can be arranged across the Thames. Obviously in east London it is a different matter, because of the lack of bridges.
ReplyDeleteAnd the same rule seems to apply with the A5, where a parliamentary constituency that united the two halves of Cricklewood would please the locals. The Pinkham Way blogs also complain that their North Circular area is split between three boroughs.
Without changing the boroughs, bridging split communities with MP's constituencies ought to be a consideration.