A personal message to people considering voting for Nigel Farage

My reasons for supporting Remain are not entirely different the reason many people support Leave. I believe in democracy and I would have accepted the Referendum result if the govt had embarked on the process of leaving in a coherent and rational fashion. The first thing they should done was to set up a Royal Commission to work out a roadmap to a successful rather than a chaotic Brexit. They should have identified all of the benefits of EU membership and then worked out mitigations for all of them, in a clear and concise manner. To this day, there is no clear and concise definition of these are and what the mitigations are The whole process of negotiations has been botched. May's deal is the worst of all worlds,  associate membership of the EU with no say on how things are run. Whatever the reasons people gave to vote leave, I do not believe it was to achieve this sort of a deal. 

My reasons for voting remain was based on the fact that whatever happens the EU will be our biggest trading partner for the foreseeable future. My belief is that Europe (not the EU) needs Britain to be a member and we should have worked with the smaller nations and taken leadership to reform what is a very corrupt club. The reason we never did that is because the EU doles out massive grants to the smaller countries to keep them sweet. Cameron was a very poor negotiator and the 'new deal' he tried to sell the UK electorate was nothing of the sort. When he failed he made up a cock and bull story to pretend he'd done a great deal and everyone ceased to trust him.

Once the UK departs the EU, the smaller countries are at the mercy of a monolithic bureaucracy with overbearing German and the French interests driving forward with no credible major force to challenge them. I believe that is dangerous. At least whilst we were in the club, we could use the fact it cost us an arm and a leg to reign them in. The reason that the Germans and the French are so keen on their deal is that it gives them complete control of the agenda, whilst also emasculating the UK's political agenda. The likes of Farage are trying to force a no deal exit. Whilst on the face of it, this may deal with the issue of the emasculation of UK's political influence, consider what that does to our smaller European allies. They have long looked to the UK for leadership and the safety blanket that offers. We did not fight two world wars to throw our friends, who have backed us for centuries, to the wolves. That is not what the UK does and it will damage our standing and influence. Countries such as Poland, Portugal, The Czech Republic etc, have long looked to the UK to watch their backs. We sacrificed millions of men in two world wars for this principle. We cannot walk away from our friends, just because the EU bureaucracy has proven difficult and inefficient. I believe that this may light a powder keg in mainland Europe and anyone who thinks that would be good for the UK simply hasn't read the history of the 20th century in Europe. 

As to the financial side of Brexit. As I mentioned in the first paragraph, any move to a no deal Brexit should have been a proper study of what this meant, a detailed plan to minimise the downside risks of the process. Had the government started planning on a proper basis for an orderly Brexit in 2016, we may have been near a position where we could manage the process. As it is, we are completely unprepared. Whilst well off people with MEP pensions such as Nigel Farage will be alright, a responsible politician would ensure that any process does not damage the standard of living of the ordinary working people of the UK. Platitudes from the likes of Farage are not enough. Dismissing any discussion of risks of job losses and economic damage as 'project fear' is not a rational way for grown up politicians to proceed. Brexit was sold to many as an opportunity to open the UK up to the world. If this does not happen, then whatever you call the process, it is not Brexit. The UK government has made no serious effort to negotiate pre agreement protocols with other major markets, so the will of the 17.4 million people has been ignored. Given that we'd been in the EU for over forty years (in all its incarnations), the leave side should have been honest and set an expectation that an orderly withdrawal would take a full parliamentary term and that the first three years would be a planning and discussion phase. Only when a proper plan was put together, should the government have enacted Article 50. I had a discussion about this with a leaver recently, who claimed that delaying serving Article 50 would have been a betrayal. I pointed out that by serving it too early and then having to apply for extensions, we have done something far worse from a leaver perspective. The Government has shown that the Article 50 process is meaningless. It would only ever have worked, if the UK was fully prepared, which it has never been. 

The architect of this chaos was David Cameron. He should have been honest with the UK electorate and said that the EU as an institution is fundamentally corrupt. He should have committed us to a guerrilla process of stopping everything until it reformed and became fit for purpose and spelled out that having lost millions in two world wars to protect the smaller countries of Europe we couldn't throw them to the wolves. There are many Europeans, even in France and Germany, who would have supported this strategy. Margaret Thatcher showed that you could get a better deal if you held your ground. Cameron called the referendum purely because he was terrified of his own right wing (the ERG mob) and the rise of UKIP. If he'd stood up and said "The EU is a broken organisation. The UK is going to forge an alliance of nations to fix it and it is going to take a long time and be very difficult, but we have shown over the centuries that we can prevail". He would have silenced those forces (assuming he'd actually done what he said). This would have made us very unpopular in the corridors of power in Brussels as we blocked budgets and stalled political change and federalist forces. But once the EU got the message that we were serious, they would have accommodated us and Europe would have benefitted from reform. It would not have been perfect, there would have been many compromises, as that is what grown ups do, but if we'd stuck to our guns for transparency, an end to corruption and proper democratic processes, eventually we would have got there. The truth is that David Cameron would never have done that, as I really don't believe it is what he wanted. I believe he was quite happy with the status quo and believed that the electorate were stupid. Theresa May is no better. I don't see any major politicians with any backbone at all. If you look at the calibre of politician the UK used to produce, people who won wars, created the NHS, abolished slavery, created the Open University etc, you soon realise that something has gone wrong with our parties. I enjoy reading historical biographies. I can't imagine anyone finding anything of worth reading David Cameron's autobiography. As to Theresa May, I look forward to her on Celebrity Pop Idol singing My Way "Regrets, I've had a few, But then again, too few to mention, I did what I had to do, they saw through me,  without exemption" would certainly bring me to tears. 

But we are where we are. Much as we may despise the politicians we have, that is like getting dealt a five high in three card brag. You can still win, if you play it right. You just need the balls to do it and a poker face. The Euro elections offer a chance to send the major parties a message. If, like me, you are a remainer, it is clear what parties you should vote for. The Lib Dems and the Greens have a consistent position. Even if you dislike the parties, neither will form a government if you vote for them, but a strong vote will send a message of disapproval to the government. But what about those on the Brexit side? Given the absolutely despicable opaqueness of both the Tory and Labour position, what should you do? The newly formed Brexit party, lead by Nigel Farage has issued no manifesto and is basically Farage and a bunch of washed up chancers, hoping to hop on the EU gravy train. If I was a Brexiteer. I would run a mile from him. Giving Farage a blank cheque is crazy. He will do what he's always done and whatever he sets up will fall apart leaving a mess and a lot of people feeling very betrayed. So what should you do? I am amazed that no one on the Brexit side has advocated this, especially ERG Tories. The answer is simple If you are a Tory or Labour, you should spoil your ballot paper and write in large letters "Deliver Brexit" on it. That way, no one will hop on the Gravy Train. If say 30% of ballot papers were spoiled in this way, this would send a signal out far louder than voting for charlatans ever can. I would be tempted to write on the back "Labour/Tory (delete as appropriate) voter for Brexit". 

The bottom line is that if you don't believe in the EU, why would you want to send someone there to hop on the gravy train?