Who are the Brexit winners?

 A serious question. Are there any companies or individuals out there who are demontrably better off as a result of Brexit? I'm not talking about people who have a nice warm feeling inside, as they have thrown off the yolk of EU oppression. I am talking about people or companies who can say "Yes, our profits/turnover/budgets have demonstrably improved as a result of Brexit". We have a large group of right wing newspapers who are still solidly supportive of the Brexit project, but I can't remember any examples in any of them where they actually could point to anyone who was doing better? 

I was chatting with a Brexit supporting friend a week or so ago and his take on it is that Brexit was right but it was implemented by an incompetent Tory government, who let the Remain supporting civil service run rings around them to scupper the whole thing. Despite still believing in the project, they were completely unable to point to any real benefits. The excuse was that "We've been robbed of a real Brexit", but the bottom line is that we no longer are part of the EU, we've got our blue passports back, we have to get a stamp to go to EU countries and EU citizens have no right to work in the UK. If we want to buy or seel products in the EU zone, it is a bureaucratic nightmare. I know all about this. One of my businesses is a small music instrument retail business. We have given up selling to EU customers. It is simply not worth the hassle, some of our suppliers have gone bust as a result of the economic situation, which Brexit has been a large part of, meaning that there are all sorts of things we can no longer source. Our main business is a rehearsal and recording studio. Prior to Brexit, many third and fourth tier bands would be busily rehearsing now for Spring tours of the EU. It is such a minefield now that most are simply not bothering.  Of the very few musicians I know of who supported Brexit, Roger Daltrey of The Who told the Independent last summer 

Daltrey also complained about the difficulties currently facing musicians who wish to tour around Europe, as they face costly delays caused by red tape and the ongoing lorry queues at Dover.

“They’re making life hard for us, I don’t disagree,” he said. “It doesn’t need to be. One truck goes into Europe full of equipment with a carnet, it’s not hard to get visas, is it? It shouldn’t be. We used to do it regularly in the Sixties and Seventies.”

Bear in mind that a huge operation like The Who, plaing large venues, can afford to employ the accountants and lawyers to smooth things through. Third and fourth tier bands playing to 2-400 people and just about getting by before Brexit on sales of merchandising, have been completely scuppered. I can only really comment on the sector I work in. Are there sectors where there has been a benefit. It is telling that there is now a vacant ministerial seat at the Office for Brexit Opportunities. 

People like Tim Martin, the Wetherspoons boss, another ardent Brexit supporter almost immediately started moaning about the lack of cheap EU labour to work in his pubs, once  Brexit was signed into law. 

According to an article in Investopia, the only obvious winners are US Bankers as it gives them a bit of an advantage over UK bankers. If this is true then it really is most unfortunate.

There has been another big winner, the Elephant in the room. In March 2016, before the Referendum I wrote the following in a blog

 The concept that Putins Russia will see a Brexit as anything other than a massive opportunity is very naive in the extreme. There is a view that this isn't our problem. But a fragmented Europe on our doorstep cannot be anything other than a risk.

For many of us raised in the 60's and 70's, the USSR seemed like a permanent feature, a fact of life. What replaced it? Look at the situation in the Ukraine and in Georgia. Stability has been replaced by war. I doubt whether anyone anticipated this when the Berlin wall came down. I doubt too many thought the USSR would dissolve in the way it did, almost overnight. In the EU, should the UK go, many countries will be forced to re-evaluate their membership and put their narrow naional interests first. Whilst for rich, stable countries such as Germany and France, this is likely to not be a problem, the poorer nations that are relying on the EU to help them build prosperity, that couild be devastating. Who knows what sort of regimes will thrive in such circumstances. Wheras we now have economic migrants from Poland and other Eastern states, we may well find we get a wholly different sort of migrant, ones who need massive financial assistance.

What we are seeing in Ukraine is exactly what I thought the worst outcome of Brexit would be. I dare say no Brexiteer would agree with my view, but it was clarly one of the biggest risks of the whole Brexit process. As we are no longer at the top table of the EU, we simply don't have the clout to get Germany to give the Ukrainians the hardware they need. I am not naive enough to think it would all be fine and dandy if Brexit hadn't happened, but we would be at the EU meetings, making the case for the smaller nations and those under threat. 

So what is the way forward? Unlike Dallas, Remainers will never wake up to find it has all just been a bad dream and we never left. In fact, the term Remainer is redundant, as we have left. If that was how you described yourself previously, you should now call yourself a Rejoiner. Brexit is now the status quo and your job is to out the tangible benefits of rejoining and demonstrate that it is indisputably in our best interests to join. I do not believe any scheme to rejoin without another referendum is viable, so it would need to be a robust case. Then there is the question of whether the EU would have us back and on what terms. Contrary to Brexiteer myth, Margaret Thatcher was never a Brexiteer. She was a Euro sceptic, which is a different thing entirely. She knew she'd done an amazing deal with the EU and should we ever get back in, it won't be on those terms again. I suspect that the EU will make it a condition that we don't bugger off again, should we rejoin and I suspect we'll have some sort of rather unpalatable 'associate' status for an extended period before we take our seat at the table.

Putin and US bankers. It is a sad irony that they have been the biggest beneficiaries of the votes of some of the most patriotic Englishmen. I was sixty last year, I am starting to wonder if I'll live long enough to see this all play out to it's logical conclusion, even if I live until I'm 100. But in the meantime, if you can demonstrate a tangible benefit of Brexit, please leave a comment as we need a grown up debate about this. Sadly we have a Conservative government that cannot even have a grown up debate about whether it is OK to dodge taxes or bully your staff, so there is no chance of a sensible debate about the future for Brexit. As for Sir Keir Starmer, his whole strategy for Brexit is to say nothing at all. Does he have a cunning plan for the day after he's elected? Something up his sleeve other than his arm? It's a nice idea, but to be quite honest with you, it wouldn't surprise me if he's just as useless and Truss and Rishi, when push comes to shove.