Too many 'what if's' in the world today....

 I was having a chat about 'what if's' with a mate of mine recently. He's a bit of a Tory, but as we like beer and football we enjoy a good chinwag. He said to me "You know I think whoever had been in charge of the UK during the pandemic was on a hiding to nothing, as it devastated the UK economy". I actually think that is a decent point. For a second though, imagine a scenario where Jeremy Corbyn had won the general election in 2019, rather than Boris Johnson. By the time the pandemic struck, he'd have been in power for four months. No time at all to pass any new laws or materially change anything. Maybe John McDonell would have passed an emergency budget in January or maybe he'd have waited until May, as Chancellors usually do. There are many what if's. But lets assume for a second that Corbyn had done nothing by early March when the pandemic struck. Lets just suppose that he was having bills drawn up to enact the various things in the 2019 Labour manifesto. And then, the world would have descended into lockdown. Lets assume for a moment that, just as Rishi Sunak did, he asked the civil service to draw up plans to keep the UK population safe and the UK economy afloat. What would they have come up with? Probably something rather like the schemes that Boris and the Tories did. In fact, right wing commentators of the day were suggesting that the Furlough scheme was Marxist and Corbynite, so it is not too unlikely to think that exactly the same things would have happened. Maybe, Corbyn would have locked down earlier and eased restrictions later, who knows. Lets assume he wouldn't and we had similar economic policies and similar death rates. All big what if's. My Labour readers will probably think Corbyn would have done far better, whilst the Tories would think Corbyn would done far worse. So for arguments sake, lets assume that the civil service gave both the same advice and their policies were the same. What would the press have said? What would the Tory opposition have said?

Well first of all, the country ran up massive debts. They would have said "Labour has bankrupted Britain". What about the death rate? They would have said Corbyn murdered a quarter of a million people. They would have said he was too slow to lock down and too fast to lift restrictions. They would have said that the Furlough was a disaster that had bankrupted the country. We'd be hearing about this for decades. How can I say that? Think of the credit crunch in 2008/9. It nearly wiped out the worlds banking system. By all accounts of economists I know, Gordon Brown played a blinder, but when the tab had to be picked up, he was crucified for it. Had the Tories have won in 2005 and done exactly the same thing, they would have been hailed for their sensible policies, saving the UK banks, the one area of business we do well. Rishi Sunak became PM on the basis that the Furlough saved the country's economy. Had John McDonnell splashed the cash in the same way, there is no way that Boris and Rishi would have praised his common sense. 

I have no idea whether Corbyn would have handled the pandemic better or worse than Boris. My suspicion is that he'd have done a better job saving lives, there would have been no corruption and partys at No 10. He wouldn't' have reignited the pandemic with eat out to help out, before there was a vaccine. I think Boris was far more gung ho than Corbyn would have been rolling the vaccine out early and so we'd have had longer lockdowns and more economic damage as a result. But all of that is supposition. What I can say for certain is that I 100% believe that whoever was the PM when the virus hit was on a hiding to nothing. It seems to me that Sir Keir Starmer is the luckiest politician around. The obvious Labour PM's in waiting, David Milliband and Andy Burnham departed Westminster, Boris imploded, Rishi was useless. I am almost tempted to put a fiver on Donald Trump winning, as I suspect that it will give Starmer a unique opportunity to assume a far more important role on the world stage than if Harris wins. My Tory mate said "Trump would be a disaster for Starmer". I beg to differ. Starmer is a lawyer and he's used to dealing with such people. I suspect that many Europeans will seek to use Starmer as a conduit as they find Trump unfathomable. 

But then again, this is all just what if's.....