tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9215006984353817373.post8593282568068117128..comments2024-03-23T12:56:50.209+00:00Comments on 99% is ....... The Barnet Eye: Times up for the Barnet ToriesRog Thttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08139705078907584931noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9215006984353817373.post-9678387009404243922012-06-01T17:18:42.497+01:002012-06-01T17:18:42.497+01:00Roger,i said that the Barnet tories were out of to...Roger,i said that the Barnet tories were out of touch in 2010, and also i`ve always backed my good friend Mark Shooter for leader of Barnet council if not standing against Offord for selection as a PPC ...APMLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10223668842019540117noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9215006984353817373.post-1286905032988225282012-06-01T14:26:33.220+01:002012-06-01T14:26:33.220+01:00It is perhaps also worth noting that the Conservat...It is perhaps also worth noting that the Conservatives arguably selected the wrong candidate for this ward, and unquestionably ran the most stupid election campaign in recent memory.Don't Call Me Davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13602899129846028170noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9215006984353817373.post-6119603041746577472012-06-01T14:22:14.209+01:002012-06-01T14:22:14.209+01:00@baarnett
It is, of course, possible that Conserv...@baarnett<br /><br />It is, of course, possible that Conservative voters will repeat their protest in 2014, but history shows that voters traditionally make a protest mid-term and then return to the fold at the next full election. When push comes to shove, voters will have the choice between an admittedly discredited Conservative council or Labour. For many Conservative voters, they will stick to the devil they know. For Labour to win, they need the LibDems to roll over as they did yesterday.<br /><br />@Rog<br /><br />I agree that Tory voters stayed at home, but Labour voters did as well. It was the LibDems who won it for Labour. The turnout figures show that 70% of people do not think the council is as important as political activists do. Or, more likely, they simply don’t care who holds the seat because it makes no difference to anything.<br /><br />The GLA elections proved that people could be motivated to vote if the reason was good enough - i.e. the removal of Brian Coleman. But they could not be persuaded to vote in massive numbers yesterday. It is for this reason that I think your suggestion that time is up for the Tories is premature. I still believe there will be a change of leadership before 2014, and that will be a game changer.Don't Call Me Davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13602899129846028170noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9215006984353817373.post-43589080336228510802012-06-01T13:18:09.542+01:002012-06-01T13:18:09.542+01:00If the Barnet Conservatives don't have a massi...If the Barnet Conservatives don't have a massive rethink, they will be out on their ear in 2014. Whether you want to call what happened yesterday a protest or not is up to you, but it is crystal clear that Tory voters were inclined to stay at home and anti Tory voters were inclined to turn out.<br /><br />If I was Richard Cornelius I would be very worriedRog Thttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08139705078907584931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9215006984353817373.post-76840469598991275162012-06-01T13:12:12.731+01:002012-06-01T13:12:12.731+01:00DCMD says "This was a classic protest vote sc...DCMD says "This was a classic protest vote scenario." <br /><br />That's obviously true, but it's possible the same sentiment will still be in the public's mind in 2014. <br /><br />And it is also possible that single, targeted protest candidates, as independent conservatives, might suceeed. Just one of them might do well in Totteridge ward, for instance.baarnetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12301292285255035403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9215006984353817373.post-15347555913608748452012-06-01T13:10:09.152+01:002012-06-01T13:10:09.152+01:00Ron
Do you genuinely think that a 29% turnout is...Ron <br /><br />Do you genuinely think that a 29% turnout is “massive”? It is a pathetic turnout, notwithstanding that by-elections are never as high as full elections.<br /><br />In 2010 Lynne Hillan polled 3,010 votes. Shaheen Mahmood polled only 1,598. That is a massive collapse, as I have already acknowledged above. <br /><br />But this was supposed to be a high profile Labour campaign against an allegedly unpopular Tory Administration. The Barnet Alliance claim to have leafleted every house in the ward - quite an achievement. But despite everything that has been written about the Conservatives, Labour simply did not get their vote out.<br /><br />In 2010, the 3 Labour candidates polled 1758, 1937 and 1994 votes - an average of 1,896. The Lib Dems polled 1066, 1217 and 1289 - an average of 1190 votes.<br /><br />Tory voters stayed away en masse - that is quite clear. They were sending a protest message to their own party. But the results show clearly that Labour had to rely on the LibDems to prop up their vote. Given the amount of negative press coverage the Conservatives have received recently, you would have expected Labour to have at least got out their core vote and then added the LibDem sympathisers to win by a margin of at least 500 votes.<br /><br />The GLA elections proved that, in Barnet, people will still vote Conservative. Boris beat Ken by a clear margin and the vote for the London List held up reasonably well given the national swing to Labour. Coleman lost by a big margin, but that was personal against him. This is a bad result for the Conservatives, of that there is no doubt, but to suggest that it is the beginning of the end for the Tories in Barnet is well wide of the mark.Don't Call Me Davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13602899129846028170noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9215006984353817373.post-26075571772629459642012-06-01T12:04:32.642+01:002012-06-01T12:04:32.642+01:00I would suggest that some commentators are forgett...I would suggest that some commentators are forgetting - or choosing to forget - that the 2010 council elections in London boroughs were on the same day as the general election. This factor alone would have seen something like twice as many people voting in the council elections than is normal. And byelections are traditionally lower turnout than normal.Morris Hickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14099635989949105753noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9215006984353817373.post-56544368436465848532012-06-01T11:44:49.325+01:002012-06-01T11:44:49.325+01:00Don't call me completely missed the plot. cons...Don't call me completely missed the plot. considering by-elections, this was a massive turnout. have a look at the other by elections from yesterday.<br />in Redhill and Northbourne the tories won with 675 votes. In Fosseridge with 397, in Meads, 1783. The issue here is not the turnout but who didn't turn out. The tories voters avoided the ballot box to demonstrate their objection to the tory council policies. This is the issue, this is the politics.Ronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10650599998897942111noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9215006984353817373.post-28285883977857833072012-06-01T11:21:57.461+01:002012-06-01T11:21:57.461+01:00With such a poor turnout, the swing figures are al...With such a poor turnout, the swing figures are almost meaningless. The LibDems clearly voted tactically and the Tory vote collapsed, but the Labour vote also dropped slightly (based on the average from 2010), despite all the negative publicity the Conservatives have received this year. On this showing, Labour will not win the full elections in 2014. This was a classic protest vote scenario.<br /><br />The real winner of the election was apathy. 7 out of 10 voters thought that none of the parties/candidates were worth voting for. It is in just such an environment that support for extremist fringe parties starts to grow.Don't Call Me Davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13602899129846028170noreply@blogger.com