Spotlight on Hendon Constituency - Shocking revelation from local Conservative big wig

I met one of our local Conservative bigwigs for a chat about the forthcoming election. Whilst they were more than happy for me to blog this, they did so on the basis of strict anonymity. We had a nice cup of tea and a chat, and they gave me a very interesting, if very disturbing insight into what is going on in the minds of sensible Tories up and down the country. They started by saying "I'm sure all of my colleagues will guess who briefed you, but I'll just deny it". One thing I've learned over the last sixteen years of writing this blog is that the Torys will give you stories in the way that Labour never do. Labour are far more controlled in their interaction with local bloggers. 

So what did they have to say? Well first of all, they told me that the Tories have no hope at all of retaining Hendon. They said that whilst this was mostly down to the national mood, there are three local factors that have scuppered them completely.

1. Incumbent Matthew Offord  has stepped down. Despite having a reputation of not being too busy on the casework, Offord has built a strong personal following amongst several local religious communities, that his views on same sex marriage etc appeal to. They have been very staunch in support of these communities in regional issues that are prime concerns of members of these faith groups. They have bolstered Offords vote a previous elections, taking him from having London's most marginal seat, to having a previously unassailable looking majority. With Offord gone, his replacement Ameet Jogia has been trying to butter up these groups, but seemingly this has not been quite as successful as Offord and many are not really sure where they stand. 

2. Offords replacement Ameet Jogia was not a Barnet councillor previously and was unknown to most people in the constituency. His leaflets painting him as "The Local Candidate" have baffled many, who's response has been "If you are local, why have I never heard of you and why were you a councillor in Harrow?". 

3. Ameet Jogia has been working for No 10, and is close to Rishi Sunak. As Sunak's star has fallen, the expected stardust that was supposed to have rubbed off on Jogia when he was selected has disappeared. The expected visits from Rishi to massed crowds have not materialised 

When I last spoke to my Tory friend, just after the election was called, they were baffled by the timing but still planning to "do their bit". Apparently this has changed and they are not the only Tory who has  decided to stay in and watch the Footy rather than knock on doors (that's a figure of speech BTW). 

We got on to discussing the state of the Conservative party. This is when I got a shocking insight into how local Tories really feel. "Rishi Sunak is destroying the party and the election can't come soon enough" They added "Many of our local supporters are either not voting, voting Reform or even voting Labour". We are not talking about random members of the general public, we are talking about committed Conservative supporters. I asked for a percentage. The response? "Maybe 5% are switching to Labour, 10% to reform and another 15% are simply not bothering to vote" We are talking about people who turn out rain or shine. I suspect many may change their mind on the day as does my confidant, but if you are losing 30% of your absolute core vote, then you really are in trouble. 

What has caused this? There are three main reasons.

1) Many think that the party has simply lost the plot and needs to regroup in opposition. Of the non voters, many are ashamed to say they won't vote, believing in the democratic process, but cannot support another party and cannot support Sunak's Tories. 

2) The betting scandal and the snub to veterans persuaded many wavering Tories that the party has lost the plot and is no longer representing Conservative values.

3) The candidate is appalling. Even staunch Tories such as Brian Coleman have criticised his campaign. Coleman put the boot in recently on Twitter of Jogia's promise to try and abolish ULEZ. Coleman correctly pointed out that this is not in an MP's remit and the matter was decided conclusively at the Mayoral Election. 

Then we got around to my confidant's own vote.  Their position was that they were finding it very hard to commit to voting for Jogia and supporting Sunak. Sunak has nearly destroyed the party. The Parliamentary party looks set to become a rump of MP's in ultra safe seats. Many of these have been around for years, which will prevent any real prospects of the party addressing the issues besetting it and becoming relevant again. Would they be voting Reform? No chance. Like me, they see Farage's support for Putin and saying the way Putin had consolidated power was admirable was simply beyond the pale for someone who was supposed to lead a democratic party. A Lib Dem was a wasted vote in Hendon, in their opinion. The only real reason to vote Tory was to try and keep Reform in their box and keep the Tories as the only choice to beat Labour. If Reform starts to come second in seats, then they may well threaten the Tories position as the party of the Centre Right in the UK. The doorstep conversations on the doorstep with formerly loyal Tories is emphasising this. If Reform comes second in more than a dozen or so seats, this election may well be the beginning of an extinction even for the Tories. 

Now we get to the real dilemma for decent Tories. Do they move to the right to try and win back Reform waverers or do they move to the centre to head off the Yellow peril from the Lib Dems. This decision will be taken after the election, by whoever replaces Sunak. They will be able to see just how dangerous (or not) Reform and The Lib Dems are. 

We got on to the betting scandal. Who would they be betting on, if they were to do such a thing. Their prediction. Labour to get a 4-5000 majority in Hendon, which is nearly 10,000 shifting from Tories to Labour. They predict this will be on a much lower turnout than in 2019. I asked for some sort of evidence to back this up. "Have you seen any evidence of Conservatives doing any real work to win in Hendon". The answer is no. I've had a few rather shoddy leaflets though the door. That is about it.

And my friend, that is just about it. The election no one wants has eight days left. The odds at Paddy Power are as follows:-

Most Seats 

Labour 1/200

Reform UK  66/1

Conservative 80/1

Liberal Democrat 200/1

Greens 500/1

Although this may just mean that Reform supporters gamble more than Tories or Lib Dems, it does rather back up what my friend seemed to be saying. Labour are 1/16 to win at Hendon at BET365