I don't agree with Reform's politics at all, but I didn't write this blog to criticise their policies. I assume anyone reading the Barnet Eye is perfectly capable of making their own minds up. I know a few Reform voters read the blog and we often have interesting chats over a pint at our local pubs. It is fair to say that they are more excited and animated than at any stage since the Brexit referendum. So what is this blog about?
I actually spoke to someone who voted Reform using a postal vote on Friday. I was surprised as they were not someone I'd expect to touch Reform with a bargepoll. What they said was quite illuminating. The truth is that Sunak has comprehensively lost the team. I asked if the Tories had canvassed them, as they are a registered postal voter and a former supporter. The answer was no. The Tories locally are usually brilliant at this. I can only assume that they've given up on Hendon and are putting their full efforts into seats that they think they can win. I think Reform will poll better in Hendon as a result and the Tories a lot worse. But it won't translate into winning the seat. This is why I think the rally was a huge tactical and strategic mistake by Reform.
The first mistake was holding a rally like this on the last Sunday of campaigning. I have to assume that Reform packed the hall with 5,000 of their best activists. These are the people who go out and knock on doors and change people's minds. Today is a Sunny day, people are in good moods and many will be at home getting ready for the football. I've done a lot of campaigning and canvassing and the last weekend before the election is the one where you put every last ounce of energy into turning those few voters who may win you aa seat. Except the activists were all at Birmingham. You may say "Well far more will watch Sky News than could ever be knocked up". This is, of course, true but one of the main purposes of canvassing is to identify your supporters, so you can get them out on election day. We all know what Nigel Farage looks like. We all know he's a more dynamic speaker than Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, then again my goldfish is. Most people do not watch long speeches by party leaders, unless they are already converted. However if those 5,000 supporters had been put into, say the 50 most likely target seats, that would be a 100 door knockers in each. If each knocked on 100 doors today, that would be 10,000 engagements in key marginals. If they could turn, say 2,500 Tory waiverers, that would be the difference between winning and coming second. Whatever effect the TV coverage of the rally has had, the butter is spread thin and not targetted. By my estimates, every seat that Reform miss by less than 400 votes on Thursday, they would probably had won if they'd had the 5,000 out there knocking on doors rather than having a love in with Nigel.
Which brings us onto the third thing that I think Farage got horribly wrong. Again it went down well with the home audience, but I suspect it will play badly with the wider voting public. It seems that every mishap was the fault of someone else and a conspiracy by the Liberal Elite. Hostile questions from the audience? That was because the BBC picked an audience of Reform haters. Racism from his campaign team? That was the fault of Channel four emplying dodgy actors to wind people up. Then there was his rant about the governor of the Bank of England. Clearly a baddy, although I doubt too many of the 5,000 really had a clue why he'd earned Nigel's ire. I may be stupid and naive and know nothing of politics, but having a rant about someone 90% of your audience have never heard of, about something they don't have a clue about, just makes you look like you are going off on one.
Another mistake is that Farage has done this in the period after most people have done their postal votes. Most people receive them and do the more or less immediately. This sort of political TV evangelism is ideal for postal voters, but most have been done. Now we are into the in person voters. That is why door knocking is important.
The final point which I think they got horribly wrong is the timing. Farage and Reform were clearly hoping that the rally would be the top story on the news tonight. That surely is the point. This shows how clueless they are. The story will be England v Slovakia. By the time News at Ten is on, everyone's memory of Nigels massive rally will be a dim memory. Planning a keynote event before the biggest football match this year was bonkers. If he'd had it on Scotland or Wales, he may have got a better reception.
It is pretty clear to me that Reform will do well in terms of numbers of votes. I know plenty of people who will be voting for them. Most are disgruntled Tories. What is much less clear is whether this will transform into actual seats. If they under perform, I predict that Farage will blame everyone, without looking at how naively he marshalled his resources the weekend before the election. Where the Tories are really fighting Reform, they will have people out walking the streets, cajoling waiverers to keep the faith. I'm really not sure that Farage wants to be the Prime Minister. He's seen how quickly the public fell out of love with Boris when the promises evapourated and his true character was exposed. I think Farage knows his limitations. He's a great orator, he is a showman, as he claimed he has charisma. He claimed this was necessary for dealing with ISIS and Putin. Sadly I don't think this is true. What you need is someone who understands the problem and understands what the UK can and can't do. If Farage really believes, as he claims, that Charisma is the key, then I suspect like the result on Thursday, he will never really be given the platform to put things to the test.
But then again, what do I know. Over the last ten years I've woken up after votes to shocks on serveral occasions and voters are a fickle lot. But if I''m right, I think this blog may tell you why.
