There is no Covid crisis - This is all going to plan!

 So you are alarmed by the huge rises in covid cases and are wondering why Boris has not taken action? This was the question troubling me until yesterday. However in my job I am lucky. Our customers come in all shapes and sizes and some have day jobs where they do very important things in very important places. I was chatting with one such customer yesterday, who nipped in to buy a plectrum. He gave me a unique insight into the thinking at the heart of government. 

The UK is taking a very different direction to the rest of Europe. We are seeing a much higher death rate and huge rate of infections. You may think that this would have Boris Johnson in a panic. Quite the opposite. Whilst this may, on the face of it, seem reckless, there is a logic. Lets consider a few facts, Firstly just about every vulnerable person, who is prepared to be vaccinated has been. Those who are vulnerable and haven't been jabbed have made a positive personal decision to not be vaccinated. In the eyes of the UK government, they have made a decision that puts them at risk, so it is their business and not the business of government to protect them and further damage the economy. Secondly, the vast majority of those who have not been vaccinated are in a demographic that covid is very unlikely to cause lasting harm to. They may feel rotten for a few days, but that will be the sum of it for most. The third factor is that we are now starting to see the protection from the vaccines starting to reduce. If we are going to have another wave, it is best to have it when the vulnerable are protected and those who are not at risk are less likely to pass it on and kill them or put them in hospital. The fourth factor is that hospitals are not overrun. This is the absolute key for Boris. 

In short, Boris Johnson and his govenrment believe that the way out of covid is herd immunity. They will not say this, because they screwed up royally in March 2020 by deciding this was the way to go, but now, with vaccines, they believe it will work. The government believes that a dose of covid when vaccinated is actually the best things for many people, as it will give their immune system a huge boost whilst they have a degree of protection. Boris Johnson is betting the house on this. His view is that the UK will have the best economic outcome of any G7 country, if we rely on vaccinations to mitigate the worst effects of the pandemic and we stay open. His view is that sooner or later, we have to open up and the best time to do it is when the population has a reasonable degree of vaccine induced immunity.

If this all sounds sensible to you and you are wondering why the government is not saying this, the reason is threefold. The first is that covid will cause thousands of deaths. Not as many, by a long shot, as if we'd not vaccinated, but no Prime Minister wants to take the blame for thousands of deaths. The second is that if he mentions herd immunity, everyone will remember what happened last time he said it. And the third reason is that it is a huge gamble. If he hasn't broadcast the reason we are following this path and it all goes horribly wrong, he can deny it was a deliberate policy, if he's not stated that's what he is doing. In short, the UK is conducting an experiment, one that most of the rest of the world thinks is dangerous and reckless. In short, the government wants as many people as possible to become infected now, while immunity levels are high, so long as hospitals are not swamped. They believe that this will mean that the UK will be the first country to see the back of covid. I asked my customer whether he thought this was the right strategy. His answer "To be honest, for many of us, it's squeaky bum time, no scientists or doctors will openly advocate it, although economists will. Boris believes it is the only real exit strategy for covid in a society where not everyone will get vaccinated". I asked if it was likely to change. The answer "The pandemic has shown that things can change very quickly, once people start to panic, so who knows".

So there you go.