For a bit of fun, at the start of the year, I make a month by month set of predictions for the year. Last year I gave myself an 8/10. This year if I get 1/10 I'll be doing well. I predicted that the Tories would sack Rishi Sunak would resign in July, and be replaced by a resurgent Boris Johnson. As for October
Five days before the election, Dominic Cummings releases his memoirs. This is a horror show for Boris. A soft pack between the Lib Dems and Labour see's the Lib Dems take 30 seats from the Tories in the South of England. Labour achieve an 85 seat majority, which Boris claims is a victory for him. Many Tory MP's breath a sigh of relief that they still have a job and it wasn't as bad as seemed likely when Sunak was in charge. Jeremy Hunt is knighted and Boris resigns. We are faced with yet another Tory Leadership contest although no one really seems that bothered.
One way or another we have to have one by January 2025. It is unlikely that this would happen. If we had the election in January, there is a change that snow/bad weather may affect it. Whilst it may be a fitting end to this Parliament, to have an election where everyone was snowed in and couldn't vote, I doubt that even Rishi Sunak would think that was a good idea. The most likely dates for it would be May or November. May would have the advantage that the Tories could do a big giveaway budget, to try and shore up their vote. They could set a few traps for Labour, with populist giveaway tax breaks, that would damage the economy, but be popular. Labour would be faced with the dilemma ofreversing them and losing votes or being hamstrung with policies they don't like that circumvent policies they do like.
Then there are other polices that the Tories belieeve are popular. The problem they have with policies on things like immigration is that they've been in power for 13 years, so big announcements will be met with cynicism, and they just demonstrate that they've failed. I believe that Suella Braverman believes that if a couple of dozen people are sent to Rwanda before the election, it will give them a poll boost. I doubt that the public will fall for this. The public see all of these stunt based politics for what they are.
|The next Tory Leader with his best mate?