Tomorrow the people of Barnet go to the polls to elect a new council. Just a little history recap. Between 1994 and 2002, Barnet was governed by a Labour/Lib Dem coalition. In 2002, the Conservatives got in and held power until 2022. Labour have governed since 2022. Apart from 2010, council elections have not taken place at the same time as general elections. This is interesting to me, because what we see is that people have used the council elections to punish unpopular national governments. When the Lab/Lib Dem coalition got in in 1994, the Tories thought Barnet was blue through and through. However John Major's government was at a low point and Barnet fell. In 1997, Labour won and the Blair government were still in a honeymoon period in 1998. Labour got in. In 2002, Labour were unpopular and the Tories got in. Labour were even more unpolular in 2006 and 2010. In 2014, Labour were in chaos, as they were in 2018. Barnet being an area with a large Jewish community did poorly, during the Momentum era locally. By 2022, The Tories had shown themselves nationally to be useless, they were in Freefall and got hammered.
And on to 2026. Tomorrow. If we followed the normal convention, Labour are hugely unpopular. History dictates that the Tories should romp home. But, no one had forgiven them for their incompetence. Barnet has always been a key indicator council. However, this time, it is an outlier. Nationally the rise of Reform has been a massive factor. They will make huge gains. As have the Green party. However Barnet is a strongly Remain area. Furthermore, the local Jewish population is very unimpressed with the Greens and their stance on anti semitism and support for the Jewish community.
So my prediction is that despite everything, the Tories will be back in. I think that if the Lib Dems had run a serious campaign, they may have taken some wards, but as I think the Greens and Reform may find out, a lack of trust in the Jewish community makes it very hard to win in Barnet.
I jist re-read the blog I posted before the last elections. I was a candidate, so I felt constrained as to what I could say. One interesting statement though was this - "I vowed that in future, I'd give my support to the party I had the best chance of delivering what I wanted to see a government or council do. Someone asked me if this meant I could ever support the Conservative Party. I thought long and hard and I realised that yes, in some circumstances I might. If it was a choice between them and the BNP I would. I hope I never have to make such a choice, but many people in France, who would never support a figure like Macron in normal times did just that. It is a grown up and sensible decision."
I have come to the conclusion that Reform are as bad as the BNP, given Nigel Farages statement about opening up concentration camps in Green voting areas.
If you vote Reform you will not have an illegal migrant deportation facility in your area.
— Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage) May 4, 2026
We will hold migrants awaiting deportation in constituencies that vote Green instead.
You get what you vote for. pic.twitter.com/voDsRi6uh8
I read this and thought to myself, what will they do with the concentration camps, designed to "process illegal immigrants" when they've all been sent home? Rather handy that they are in areas that don't like Farage. I was reminded of this
First They Came by Pastor Martin Niemöller
First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist
Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist
Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist
Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me
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