Thursday 27 June 2019

Exclusive - The insiders guide to how Boris Johnson will save the world

In my day job, I meet all manner of interesting and well connected people. You would be quite surprised how music brings us together. Whilst most of our customers are better known for their musical prowess, many people simply play instruments for pleasure and many more have children that are talented and have time to while away, whilst they have lessons etc. As they have time on their hands, many have a chat about life, the universe and everything. A few are involved in politics and some take an interest in the blog. I was fascinated to learn a few weeks ago that one of my customers has a role in the team helping Boris in his bid to become PM. This came to light recently in a conversation about the Mayor of London Sadik Khan and his polices towards live music. I made an off the cuff observation that he had been a massive disappointment and that Amy Lame had also been absolutely useless as a Night Time Tsar for the Mayor. There are real issues that could easily be addressed. I outlined many of the ideas of the #SaveLondonMusic campaign. My customer said "What about Boris?". I replied that he was even worse and had no interest at all in promoting live music when he was London Mayor. He was quite disappointed with my view of Mayor Johnson, but couldn't cite anything to support his contention that Boris was good for the London night time economy and live music scene.

On the next visit, some homework had been done. A few examples of initiatives under Boris were cited, but these were too little, too late. The London nightime commission, set up a few months before the end of his eight year reign being the main. At this point, my new friend explained their key role in Team Boris and his plans to become PM. I was pleased to learn that in the event of Boris becoming PM, I will be getting an invite to No 10 to discuss ways to improve the Live music scene (to be honest I'll believe it when I see it). 

I was more interested in what Boris will do if he becomes PM. The #Brexit problem is, in my opinion, not something within the remit of any PM to resolve. I expressed this view. My newfound friend smiled and said "Do you really think that Boris doesn't have a plan?". This fascinated me, Boris never really struck me as someone who had a plan for anything. "We'll he doesn't do detail, but he is great with strategy, that's why he beat Ken to become Mayor, when no one gave him a chance". So I asked what is his plan. The problem Boris has is that the October deadline is fixed and whoever wins has no majority, with a large number of Remain supporting MP's and the ERG. That is a circle that can't be squared. 

My new friend, to my amazement said "Boris isn't Theresa May, he knows that Parliament won't support any specific outcome." So how can he deliver? Well that is actually quite simple. He is not associated with the mess that Theresa May has cooked up. Once he has his feet under the desk, he will declare that things are far worse than he imagined now he has the full facts. He will declare that an emergency budget is required to prepare the economy for the shock of a hard Brexit and he will instruct the civil service to prepare immediately for a hard Brexit with no deal. He will hope that this will spook the EU into being more amenable. The emergency budget will effectively be a giveaway, which will put money in people's pockets. If the opinion polls react favourably, Boris will then call a general election in September or October, specifically stating that it is the only way to deliver a Brexit. Boris and his team believe that they can achieve a majority and that unlike Theresa May, they have a plan to thwart Jeremy Corbyn. Boris also knows that he has only a short honeymoon to do this. If Parliament thwarts his plans, he will go the way of Theresa May, only more quickly. Once Boris has a majority, he can then do what he likes, knowing that he has five years to pick up the pieces. His deal? He wants us to be in the Customs Union, but not in name, he wants all the MP's to come home and he wants to pay less than the £39 million divorce bill (even if it costs more in the long run) so that he can say he's got us a better deal. If he could trim it to £35 billion, he can claim that's £4 billion for the NHS. 

It all makes perfect sense to me. Of course this is just the view of one person on the team. I've no real idea if it is 'Plan Boris', but it sounds far more credible and sensible than anything either Mr Hunt or Mr Johnson has publicly uttered. Out of good manners, I asked if I could blog this. So long as it's unattributed was the answer. It seems that Tory MP's are not universally keen on the idea of snap election after the May debacle. This may also be misinformation, spread to unbalance the opposition. I can only speculate, but as a blogger, it would be remiss not to share it. Don't bother asking for any more details as they won't be forthcoming.  

And my views? I think Boris will romp the members vote, unless he falls under a bus, cardboard or otherwise. I suspect that we will still be in the EU on1st November. I suspect that Boris knows this as well. But he will only be able to say this when he has his feet under the desk and can say "Due to the previous administration, there have been no preparations and so we are moving the deadline to 25th December as a Christmas present to the British public". Leaving during a holiday when there are low traffic volumes etc would be a very smart move. It will give the ports etc time to prepare. Is Boris the best man for the job? Well personally I wouldn't choose either. I think Jeremy Hunt was an unmitigated disaster as health secretary and is dangerously right wing. I actually think that Boris is far more of a centre right character than he pretends. His term as Mayor demonstrated some clear One Nation tendencies, that his followers on the right have seemingly completely missed. I think Boris gets infrastructure. I suspect that on the plus side, he'll make sure London gets Crossrail 2 and will probably cancel Heathrow expansion and build Boris Island if he gets a 100 seat majority. 

As he is extremely crafty and duplicitous, I suspect that he'll neuter Farage by saying he needs a majority for a Hard Brexit and then when he's in power, Farage will discover how Boris's ex wives feel about him. Boris thinks he'll be the next Churchill. I agree, but sadly I think that Brexit will be the Boris Gallipoli moment. Whether we will get the D-Day moment when he's in his 70's and drinking a bottle of brandy a day, I really don't know. 

No comments: