My worst nightmare, Reform win the next election

 I had a terrible nightmare last night. Sir Keir Starmer had called a snap general election and Reform UK had won with 450 seats. The Labour Party was reduced to 9 seats. The Lib Dems were the second biggest Party with 130 seats. The Tories had also done rather badly. I was watching the coverage of Nigel Farage at the plinth outside number ten, doing all of the things that Farage does that makes me dislike him intensely. As I was watching, my whatsapp was pinging with gloating messages from my Reform supporting friends and acquaintances.

Now the thing about democracy is that it does mean that you spend much of your life with people running the country who you can't stand, but at least they get booted out occasionally. We have seen what happens to people in China this week, who disagree with unelected despots. People like Farage are the downside (for me), but whoever replaces Starmer, whenever they come in and whatever party they represent, they will just be transient residents of No 10. The saving grace of my  nightmare is that Farage would be just as transient as Boris, Keir, May and Truss. 

The real horror of the dream though wasn't Farage himself. If Reform win, whatever you may or may not think of Farage, it will be a personal mandate, in a way that no other British Prime Minister  has had. No one voted for Keir for his charisma or personality. They voted Labour, for the party, Starmer was always just the bloke at the top. If Reform win, then we have to acknowledge that Farage has a mandate. However the problem is that Reform has no one in its ranks with experience of government. The only people who have real political experience of doing top jobs are Tory defectors, who by and large were mostly booted out for being either useless or a bit dodgy. Farage has got very sparse cupboard to choose from, when it comes to appointments. There is an argument that a new broom is needed, but anyone who has ever dealt with civil servants, knows they will run rings about inexperienced ministers. 

There is a bit of me that is curious as to how Farage would get on with Trump if he became tomorrow. If, as is more likely, the election is 2029, Farage may find himself having to deal with a Democrat, who would be none to impressed with Farage and his links to Trump. 

In my nightmare, I was thinking about what to say in a blog. The absolute bottom line is that both Labour and The Tories deserve to be decimated at the polls. Starmer's judgement has been appalling. He came out yesterday saying "I've won every fight I've been in". I've watched a lot of boxers make similar claims. Then they get their head knocked off, because they've not really been in a proper fight. I cannot see any scenario where Starmer can regain his credibility. Usually the Captain goes down with the sinking ship, but it is rare for the Captain to ram an Iceberg first. Any sane person would have known how the Mandelson appointment would play out. Starmer lost his chief of staff, but if he couldn't see the advice was flawed, he's an idiot. 

Then there are the Tories. Kemi Badenoch has had a good two weeks, but she has been given a massive open goal. No one could miss from where she was at PMQ's last week. The sad truth is that one good PMQ in nearly two years is an appalling record. What really shocks me is that Badenoch has no strategy to counter Farage.  She seems to be pushing the party into the right wing fringes. This is suicide. Farage has already claimed that space. He's nicked most of the high profile hard right big hitters already. The Tories tend to win when they are percieved as a sane, centre right party. It is the sensible centre right voters who are moving to the Lib Dems who she needs, but she seems intent on alienating them.

In my dream, Sir Ed Davey and the Lib Dems became the official opposition. With Starmer being useless, Badenoch fighting a war for the hard right with Reform, no one has asked the question "could the Lib Dems actually win?", which puzzles me. They have experience in government, with the coalition. Davey has played a blinder on the Mandelson issue. He is criticised for being a lightweight clown, but he is a decent man. The Lib Dems showed they could function as a party of government in the coalition. It is really not to my taste, but I could see a scenario where the Lib Dems and either Labour or the Tories have enough seats to form a government. If the Tories had the choice between a coalition with Reform or the Lib Dems, which way would they jump? It is clear to me that Labour would happily ditch Starmer and hook up with the Lib Dems. 

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 30% (=)
LAB: 23% (+2)
CON: 21% (+1)
LDM: 12% (-2)
GRN: 10% (=)
SNP: 2% (-1)

Via @Moreincommon_, 6-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan - 2 Feb.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) February 11, 2026

....

The polls tell a very interesting story. The latest poll today shows Reform with a 7% lead over Labour. I cannot imagine that there would be a worse time to be the Labour Party or possibly a better time to be Reform. But they are only on 30%. There is an argument that the right wing voters make up over 50% of the electors, but I suspect that the 21% who are still Tories are not going to switch to Reform. As for Reform's 30%, I also suspect that 10% of them are disgruntled Labour supporters. 

What this poll doesn't say is how any of these voters would vote tactically. The Lib Dems are masters of getting people to lend them votes. Both Tory and Labour voters can stomach a Lib Dem vote if they percieve it will keep a party they don't like out. My prediction is that the election will be in 2029 and the result will be a hung parliament. I genuinely have no idea how that will break down or whether it will end up with a Tory/DUP/Reform government ( I suspect that would be Badenoch's choice), a Tory/Lib Dem alliance (likely if Badenoch goes and someone like Jeremy Hunt takes over), or a Labour/Lib Dem alliance (Wes Streeting might go for this). I genuionely believe that Reform will not be 7 points ahead by 2029, despite the best efforts of Starme and Badenoch to make them look like a feasable choice. 

Anyway, I must say that I was glad to wake up. I know there are a few people in Barnet who wished I hadn't but hey ho..