One of the benefits of getting old is that you tend to have seen it all before. Through my life, every ten/fifteen years there are major outbreaks of civil unrest. The last time was 2010, when it seemed like just about every high street had a riot. A warehouse was burned to the ground in Croydon and for a few days it felt like the new Tory government and the police had lost control. There was a general sense of panic in the air and the news coverage was clearly a tad nervous. This time, it all seems a bit odd, a bit strange. Much of the footage seems to show far smaller groups of rioters than previous riots, with far smaller groups of police trying (or not) to control them. There is no talk of the army on the street, no regualar breifings from COBRA meetings, no Prime Minister emergency broadcasts.
I have always found that when something doesn't look right, it probably isn't. I follow a huge range of accounts on various social media platforms, as it helps me form a balanced view of what is going on. A lot of extreme right wing accounts are getting very excited, bleiving 'there time has come'. I hate to upset such groups, but it is pretty clear to me that it hasn't. Firstly, the groups storming hotels and libraries are small groups of people, I see more police at Manchester City when I go to football than I've seen on the coverage. The Police seem to me to generally be taking the view that protestors can shout and jump up and down all they like. The arrests are in the hundreds, in a population of 60 million a tiny percentage.
Most people seem more than happy to sit at home and watch the Olympics. The BBC haven't interrupted their Olympic coverage. When I watched the horrific scene of the attack on the hotel, it seemed to me that the Police were very passive and their numbers were totally inadequate. The more I watched it, the more something seemed to not a up. Why on earth are we in a sitaution where pictures are broadcast across the globe that asylum seekers, coming to the UK for refuge aren't safe? I am 100% sure that the UK Police have more than enough resources to absolutely crush these small groups, if they were ordered to by the Home Secretary. So why haven't they? The horrible thought then occurred to me that maybe this could quite suit Sir Keir Starmer. If you were an asylum seeker in Calais and watching the news, maybe you'd think twice before coming to the UK right now.
Starmer has always struck me a both highly intelligent and highly duplicitous. Ask any Jeremy Corbyn fan what they think of him and they will tell you of his scheming and betrayal of Corbyn. He was happy to drink from the same cup as Corbyn, but as soon as he could, he shafted Corbyn and all his former left wing mates. So what is the biggest threat at the moment to Starmers political power. He doesn't seem too bothered about the Tories, who have decided to engage in a lengthy period of navel gazing, as they try and select a replacement for Rishi Sunak. I get the feeling that Starmer would be more than happy to cut a deal with the Lib Dems, who generally only take Tory seats, if his support wanes.
The one area that could turn nasty is Reform. There is a suspicion that the red wall, which turned Tory in 2019 and returned in 2024 is an area that Reform see as ripe for harvesting. It is clear that the government is keen to brand the rioters as 'Far Right'. There is no doubt that if this sticks it will severely damage the Reform brand and Nigel Farage. When arsonists start burning down hotels where they think asylum seekers may be staying, it is puts Farage, who has made a career out of demonising such people, in a difficult place. It seems strangely ironic that all of the hard right thungs at the heart of all of this may simply ensuring that Keir Starmer's two biggest domestic problems are dealt with. Could it be that he realises that this will damage Reform and so falling in line with Sunak's line is a pretty shrewd move.
I would be amazed if we don't see a massive fall off in numbers of boats crossing the channel. In a few months time, the riots will be largely forgotten by most of us, but when the annual figures for small boats are released, it will look like Starmer has got a grip on the issue. It is interesting to see that Rishi Sunak is not putting the boot in to the new government.
Now of course I have no inside info. What I write is pure supposition, but one thing I've learned over my nearly 62 years is that when odd things happen and the person making the decision is a huge beneficiary of what is going on, things become a lot easier to understand. So if you are a right wing extremist and you think burning down hotels is giving Sir Keir Starmer a problem, think again. You might just be doing him a massive favour. Oh and don't forget that when this is done and dusted, Starmer will probably pass new laws, allowing him to tap your phone, hack your facebook account and lock you up. Don't say I didn't tell you in five years time when Starmer starts his next term, whilst you are banged up, for breaking some yet to be passed law.
As for me, I'll just sit back, crack open a beer and watch the Olympics. It is pretty clear to me what is going on, but then again, I love a good conspiracy theory. One thing I have learned is that whatever happens, the politcal classes always win in the end.
Updated 5/8/2024 - It seems I’m not the only one puzzled by the lack of energy in Keir Starmers response. Tory Leadership hopefully Tom Tugendhat said this in the Express today. He is ex military so his views have a degree of gravitas
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