Every so often, I write a blog, usually spending ages on it, then I realise it is as dull as dishwater and if someone else had written it, I'd think "How could anyone write such drivel". I know some of my readers (Hi Brian Coleman), think all of my blogs are drivel, but I get nice feedback on enough of them to think most must be OK. I don't actually mind when people tell me I've written a load of old cobblers because they disagree with me. I have strong views and share them freely, so that is part of the job, but occasionally people pull me for simply writing a duff blog and on occasion I have to agree.
Generally, the blogs I wrote about Barnet Council didn't fall into the complete drivel category. The reason was simple, I'd see something that no sane person would think was OK and lay the facts out. A reader may disagree with my analysis, but I cannot recall a single occasion where I was called out for having written simething stupid about Barnet Council. When I write about more subjective things, it is easier to waffle and talk complete nonsense, if not careful. On a few occasions, readers have taken such exception that they've written and complained. The best example was when a reader, Andrew Evans, who was an atheist, took exception to my views about Richard Dawkins. My response was simple. Write a guest blog as a response and I'll share it. Andrew did and I was really pleased with his response. I thought it was a pretty intelligent exchange of views and the world is a better place when we do share our opinions in a civilised way.
Although I am sure Andrew would categorise the blog he responded to as not one of my best, I thought it was actually pretty good. I tend to like provoking such a response, so it has to be classified as OK. The blog I wrote yesterday and didn't publish was not OK. I suspect that if Andrew had seen it and responded, he'd have conclusively given me a verbal kicking. I try and write blogs that people who hold diametrically opposed views will find interesting and challenging. Sometimes this is easy. Some of the blogs I wrote during the Brexit referendum campaign, I thought were very good and even staunch Brexiteers conceded I may have a point. One recently told me that he was dismayed to realise that I'd been right about the effects on Eastern Europe. But one thing I've learned is it is always the unexpected consequences that are most interesting, when the dust settles. A good example is that now Trump is in the White House, Brexit does have an upside no one, especially those in the Leave camp predicted. Having said that, I suspect that the early promise of a better deal for Britain is a pipedream, as all Trump really wants is a better deal for America. What really worries me is that Trump can kick us harder than Europe, because they are bigger. We will just have to see how that will play out and I genuinely think that Mystic Meg has as much chance of predicting Trumps next action as any other commentator.
The one thing I know for certain is that if Mystic Meg could accurately predict Trumps next action, she'd be a rich lady as she'd be able to make a fortune shorting the latest stock market sector Trump has shafted. But for poor, humble, ill informed bloggers like me, Trump presents a real dilemma. The problem is that there is almost nothing interesting to say about him. He's Mr Marmite, those that love him and think he's a genius are convinced, those that think the opposite equally so. I suspect that Trumps saving grace is that no one knows what he will do next, so everyone is terrified of upsetting him. I think that the recent, outrageous missile attacks on Ukraine are Putin seeing how far he can push his luck. Unlike Trump, I think Putin is wholly predictable. The problem for every country with the exception of perhaps the USA and China is that we can do very little. What we do know is that Putin wants to decouple the USA from NATO. He wants this for one simple reason, if he acheives this, he can push Europe around. Whatever you may or may not think of Trump, Putin or any other world leader, in twenty years time, neither are likely to be around. Putin will be 92 and Trump 98. But I suspect that the legacy of their respective reigns will still be casting a shadow.
Personally, my assumption is that by 2045, the USA and Russia will no longer be the powers of note. I believe that this will be the century of China and India. Both have populations that dwarf the USA and China and both are growing far faster. Trumps policies seem to me to be aimed at putting the genie back in the bottle. I suspect that all he's doing is forcing these countries to open up new markets, that the US cannot dominate. It seems to me that the leaders of China are planning for the next 20 years, whilst I am not convinced Trump really knows what he will do tomorrow. China know that in less than four years, there will be a new President of the USA. Whatever happens, the direction will change. It may well change another three or four times over the next 20 years. China's economic policy is very likely to adapt, but remain focussed on what the ruling elite in China think is important.
Of course, there is always the unexpected. Few predicted the dissolution of the USSR and it is always possible that the central control of China may go the same way, but unlike the USSR, China is prosperous. People tend to rebel when the economy doesn't work for them and they feel there is nothing to lose. China is robust, I believe it will easily withstand the seismic shock of Trumponomics. It seems likely to me that Trumps policies will hit global growth and we will all suffer to some degree, but markets adapt quickly. Unless you buy into the conspiracy theory that Trump is simply generating a bear market so his mates can make a fortune shortings stocks (which I don't), the turmoil will die down fairly quickly. The trading models that do not respond well to unforseen shocks, will start to price in a 'Trump Announcement factor' and market swings will be less pronounced. The ride may still be bumpy, but it will be potholes rather than off the edge of the cliff.
But all of this is purely my best guess. I may be spouting a complete load of rubbish. Getting it wrong is a way of life for bloggers. When Boris won in 2019, I woke up in the certain knowledge that the Tories would run the country for a decade and Labour were in permanent decline. It appeared Nigel Farage was riding off into the sunset, telling all who would listen that "It was Nige who won it for Boris". We all know how that went.
Anyway, at the start of the year, I made a few predictions in my new years blog, here's the ones we can pass judgement on. I didn't do to bad, did I?
Politics
Donald Trump will not end the Ukraine war on day one of his presidency as promised.
Nigel Farage will continue to be the bloke most invited onto #BBCQT whilst claiming that the 'mainstream media' gives him a hard time.
The Weather
Winter will be cold and miserable and at the end of it, we'll be told it's the hottest winter on record.
So there you go! Bloggers do occasionally get something right, even in the most challenging of circumstances!
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