There will be many things said about the new Prime Minister, Elizabeth Truss. One theme that is emerging is that she is Boris mark II. She is no such thing. Boris Johnson was elected and had an 80 seat majority. No one has been more critical of Boris Johnson than I was, but when he was elected PM, he soon twigged that he lacked the legitimacy to sort out the Brexit mess and called a general election. Boris carried the blessing of a majority of his MP's and was rubber stamped by the Tory Party members. We have a Parliamentary democracy that means the PM is first amongst equals in the commons. Liz Truss does not hold a mandate from her own MP's. She trailed Rishi Sunak in the Leadership contest. As far as I am concerned, her second act, after appointing a cabinet should be to call a vote of confidence of MP's. That would at least give her a fig leaf of legitimacy (assuming she won, which no sane person would bet against).
Having got her MP's to publicly support her, the next thing she should do is commit herself to the Tory manifesto that they were elected on. I don't agree with it, but that is what the party was elected to do. Of course the cost of living crisis and energy supplies are most Britons no 1 concern, but Truss needs to show that she respects the democratic institutions of the UK. This may all sound a bit pedantic, but to me it is very important. A wholescale throwing out of policies, following her election by a cabal of 130,000 tory voters would be an insult to the UK.
Anyone who thinks Liz Truss is Boris mark II is crazy. Firstly she lacks his charisma and his thick skin. For reasons I don't really understand, the Tory Party were largely prepared to forgive him anything (apart from a poll ratings slump). Truss comes in as the preferred candidate of the core Tory vote. I may be thick and I'm not a Tory, but I cannot for the life of me see how that will translate into a winning formula at the ballot box. She can either betray the people who put her there and try and unite the party, appealing to the centre right swing voters who win Tories elections or she can hunker down and hope against hope that the Brexit party vote and some sort of reaction against the dullness of Starmer will see her through.
Many of the Tories who are still loyal to Boris forget that his landslide was against Jeremy Corbyn. Whilst Corbyn energised the Labour left, drawing out all sorts of voters, he never, at any point had a realistic chance of being PM. Theresa May managed to pull off the almost impossible and lose the Tory majority against Corbyn, but Corbyn was still in something of a honeymoon period and May came up with a raft of truly appalling policies that even die hard Tories hated.
Boris was always a long way to the left of the Brexit true believers. They went along with him as they knew he was the one leader who could pull the whole thing off. Boris's gut instincts are always to wing it and let others clear up the mess. Sadly for him, the Pandemic and the behaviour of his team did for him before the true consequences of his policies became clear. Many Brits have woken up to the reality of Brexit. Long queues at ports, higher prices, lack of opportunities, pubs & restaurants closing due to lack of workers. This would be bad, but with the Ukraine conflict casusing an energy crisis and the UK in a proxy war with Russia, she's coming in at the most difficult time since Winston Churchill took over.
The sad truth for Ms Truss is that even if she wanted to be Boris Mk II it isn't an option. She has to come up, in short order, with some serious policies to address all manner of crises. One of the flagship messages of the Tories, one their core vote loves, is that they will sort out illegal immigration. Despite harsh words and horrible policies, Priti Patel has failed miserably. The sad truth is that this a Brexit failure. The French have no reason to do us a favour. Whilst the Euro haters scream that the EU is 'not playing fair' the sad truth is that only a fool would ever think we'd be treated the same once we left. We have no seat at the table and all we can do is complain. The Rwanda policy is an embarrassment and a failure. Truss needs to appoint a team that can do something to sort this out, but the Tory Gene pool has been very diminshed.
So what should she do? If I was her, I'd abandon the Boris policy of appointing bonkers loyalists. Try and get competent people into the cabinet. If I were her, I'd appoint Boris as Minister for the Ukraine. He's popular with the Ukraine and giving him a figurehead role would do her no harm. The Ukraine Crisis is dangerous and he has something to offer. I'd give Sunak a cabinet post, I'd make him Minister for Brexit Opportunities. He's a Brexiteer and he's vaguely competent. She has to heal the divisions. I'd sack Patel as she's clearly failed. I'd put Jeremy Hunt as her replacement. It's a poison chalice, but he is at least vaguely competent. I'd put Tom Tugenhadt at the MOD. At least he has a clue about the issues and might actually sort something out.
I doubt Truss will do any of that. I suspect that she will have to reward her cronies. Her one saving grace is that Dominic Cummings has been buried and a stake has been put in the place where his heart should be.
I predicted in January that Truss would become PM in the summer. I predict that she won't be in two years.
