I am completely bemused by the pressure to force the UK to leave the UK on the 31 October. Whatever happens on this day, it is vital that the UK gets the best possible outcome. Having sat on our hands for the whole of the summer there is now an indecent haste to quit, with Boris claiming that he will strike a deal or he will impose a no deal Brexit on the UK. The truth is that this is a lie. There is no such thing as a 'no deal Brexit'. The idea that all co-operation on everything with the EU stops at midnight on the 31st is a complete nonsense. The EU won't let that happen and we won't. Much as it may seem appealing to imagine the UK pulling up it's anchors and sailing across the ocean, there are just too many ties in all manner of things, that some sort of 'working arrangements'' will have to be made for. It is clear to me that the EU is far better prepared for this than Team Boris. This is not a criticism of Boris, he's only been PM for five minutes, and although I blame him for many things, the criminal neglect of preparations by his predecessor is not one of them. it is not betraying the referendum to want to get the best possible arrangements if and when we leave, it is common sense. The trouble is that Team Boris will go in to discuss these arrangements with a bunch of professional EU officials who have been working on nothing else since the referendum result was announced. On every detail of every change, they will have lengthy lists of questions for their UK counterparts, demands, clarifications. They know their 'red line', but it is simply not credible to expect the crew from team Boris to expect the same.
If Boris completely botches the Brexit process and the UK takes an economic hit, it won't be long before we are back, cap in hand, asking the EU to be let back in. If you think our negotiating position is bad now, consider what situation we'll be in if we have to re-apply? So my question to all staunch Brexiteers, you've waited a very long time to get to the point where we leave. Surely you want the new processes to work? On the day after the Referendum, I expected the UK government to set up a Royal Commission to work out what Brexit meant and what we wanted from the new arrangements. The May government didn't do this. It was clear to me that her strategy was to win and election and have the numbers in Parliament to enact whatever scheme she had cooked up. When she lost her majority, her fox was shot. Back in June, briefed by a Boris adviser, I published a blog stating what he would do. I've just watched his speech from outside the steps of Parliament. It is all going exactly as I said. The populist giveaway pledges to soften us up (not a budget but and an Autumn spending round). Sajid Javid will announce this on Wednesday. Boris's hitman fired the chancellors top adviser when she told him the numbers didn't add up. Having removed the Chancellors cojones, the statement will be made. Boris knows he can promise anything he likes, because if he wins the election, he can tear it all up.
From a Leave perspective, if I were a Brexiteer, I'd be terrified if Boris got a big majority. Until he realised it could deliver him the office of Prime Minister, Boris was not in the slightest interested in a No deal Brexit. If he get's the majority he hankers for, there is not the slightest chance he'll deliver it.
But will Boris win an election? Theresa May found out to her cost that the electorate do not thank politicians for unwanted elections. Most voters think that MP's should have sorted something out. As the economics of the Boris giveaway are in La La land, his charges that Jeremy Corbyn would let public finances run out of control might sound rather hollow. Ordinary people might take the view that faced with two visions that will damage the economy, they'd rather take the Corbyn vision that will at least put some money in their pockets and wipe away their kids student loan debts etc. I think the Lib Dems will do very well. Whoever gets in, I believe that a large number of people in the country would like some sort of brake on the excess of left or right. Whatever you may think of the Coalition, it was clearly better and more competent than what has followed. My view is that the a Boris snap election will see him unravel. His tactic for the Tory leadership contest of keeping his head down will not work with the great British electorate. Whislt Brexit is important for many, when it comes down to it, schools, the NHS, Police numbers, road and rail policies are likely to play out in a general election. Boris won't make Theresa May's 'Strong and Stable' mistakes, but he has a fundamentally more divided party than May had. He's sought t marginalise many of his brightest colleagues and the Tories are a nasty bunch when shafted.
So I see three possible likely outcomes.
1, A Boris majority, where he is able to shaft the Brexiteers and negotiate his own slightly amended 'May Deal', which is what the Tories big business backers want.
2. A Tory implosion with a Corbyn government and heaven only knows what Brexit policy. It is unlike to be a hard Brexit.
3. An almighty mess with even more fragmentation and a rainbow coalition lurching from crisis to crisis, with Brexit sort of abandoned and sort of put on the back burner.
If I were a Brexiteer, I really don't think any of those options would appeal to me very much. I think a delay and an orderly withdrawal with a whole bunch of side deals would seem far more palatable. The one point that seems unresolveable is the Irish border. Until anyone proposes something that works, in reality Brexit is doomed. I am not altogether sure Boris gets that just yet. But he will. That is why we need a delay. I am amazed at the fact that some English Tories are even talking about giving Northern Ireland to the Republic to solve the problem. Two hundred years ago, those so called patriots would be off to the Tower for proposing such treachery. Whilst I am sympathetic to republican views, given my family history, that would be a complete betrayal of everything the Tory party stands for. Don't forget it is "The Conservative and Unionist Party". If they will sell out their friends in the North of Ireland like that, God help the rest of us.
No comments:
Post a Comment