Air quality - Will the ULEZ really make any difference?

 Science is a funny old thing. My old physics teacher at FCHS, John Shuttler, the best teacher in the school, explained how science works. On a basic level it is really simple. You measure stuff. Then you change things and you measure it again. If you have a theory, you make the changes that your theory suggests and see if the measurements change accordingly. If they do and they do repeatedly, then your theory is most probably sound. But you can only call something science when you have sturdy data. 

Which brings us to the ULEZ. Mayor Khan was on the radio yesterday. A figure of 4,000 children dying in London due to bad air quality was mentioned. Only the most selfish soul on  the planet could possibly disagree with measures that would save them, wouldn't they? 

But then we keep hearing about one poor girl, who had air pollution listed on her death certificate as a contributory factor in her death. There is a huge difference between 4,000 and 1. This is where I start to have a problem. There are only two possible reasons for this. The first is that hospitals and coroners are being negligent in the recording of causes of death, or the 4,000 deaths a year are not due to pollution, in which case, the case for ULEZ is completely false. 

I have no doubt that air pollution has a role in poor health. What I haven't seen is any science that definitively proves that this measure will save 4,000 lives. When Mayor Khan speaks about seeing children in hospitals, he doesn't mention the Edmonton incinerator, which will cause huge air pollution. Little is said about the pollution from wood burning stoves and aviation. 

When Ken Livingstone brought in Congestion charging, he improved public transport. Khan has done almost nothing. The crossrail project, the one big improvement in London predated his reign. There are all manner of schemes that he could push for, such as the West London Orbital Rail Scheme. This will make a huge difference, but guess what? This scheme, which has TFL backing will use diesel trains to move people around. I am 100% behind the scheme, but surely it should be done properly. I think the UK must be the only developed country planning major rail projects that rely on diesel and for Khan to be lecturing us and then planning this is, shall we say, a tad odd.

The point that I am trying to make is that Mayor Khan is proposing a massive change that will have a huge impact on many Londoners, without any proper data monitoring being in place to demonstrate that it has worked. He has ignored many other sources of air pollution, which may or may not have an impact and he's even promoting schemes that will add diesel based transport in London. He's done nothing to improve public transport in London, that would dramatically reduce the number of car journeys and fares have gone up, pushing people away from Public transport. 

For me, the crux of the matter is that we need proper science to back up such changes. I want to see every pollution related death recorded as such on death certificates. I want to see if there are hotspots, especially near incinerators and other major sources of pollution. Should we be extending the ULEZ zone on the lines that Mayor Khan wants? I don't think this freedom of information request on the Mayors own website supports this

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/deathsinlondonasaresultofcaremissions#:~:text=There%20was%201%20death%20registered,2%20of%20the%20death%20certificate.

To quote Mayor Khan's own response

There was 1 death registered in London in the period 2001 to 2021 which had exposure to air pollution recorded on the death certificate in either part 1 or part 2 of the death certificate. This death was attributed to environmental air pollution, however we are unable to determine whether this involved car emissions.

You may wish to read this study - https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/health-matters-air-pollution/health-matters-air-pollution. It has this graphic. I'm really not sure this has any convincing evidence that Mayor Khan is really dealing with the matter.

I'm all for better air quality for everyone, but surely this should be aimed at the biggest pollutors and should be done in such a way that specific sectors have proper support to transition to low pollution solutions. Generally people who have older diesel vehicles are not particularly well off and need the vehicles for work. I'd like to see such people either be given a lot more financial help to change to low pollution vehicles, or given exemptions from the rules for a period.