The first thing that occurred to me is that Trump has forced Europe to step up. One of the reasons that the USA is far more economically powerful than Europe is because historically Europe is divided and cannot get its act together. It is clear that Starmer and Macron have realised that they simply cannot bury their heads in the sand. Trump may have done the pair of them a massive favour. Forcing Europe to get its act together will make two leaders, who had looked as effective as a melting jelly, look like effective and assertive statesman in a way most of us couldn't have imagined. Starmer has taken a lot of criticism for his attempts to snuggle up to Trump. The narrative is that Zelenskyy showed Starmer how its done. The opposite is true. Starmer simply tried to develop a sane, grown up relationship with a very unpredictable man. The realities of global realpolitik dictate that this is how it's done. Whatever you think of Trump, he was legitimately elected and whether we like him or not, God willing, he'll be in the job for the next three years and ten months. If he drops dead, we'll have Vance, who seems to me to be even worse. So careful what you wish for.
If things carry on the path that seems to be emerging, when the next President walks into the White House, the USA will be a very different place. It is clear that Trump sees foreign policy only as a business transaction. My view is that the end result of this will be a Europe which is far stronger. We really have no choice in this matter. I suspect that this will have the opposite effect to the one Trump wants. Whilst Trump plans to stick massive tariffs on EU goods, to reign the EU in, it seems to me that this will be another driver for the EU to get its act together. One interesting development that the Musk/Trump bromance has seen, is a collapse in sales of Tesla cars in Europe. It is all very well having deals, tariffs, etc, but if your brand is tainted, it will cost you money. If people don't want to buy your products, then it will damage your business. I am not sure that having the stars and stripes on US products will help sales around the world at the moment. If I were the CEO of a US company operating in Europe, I would be concerned. When sales slump, CEO's get the sack, even when it is the policies of an idiot that have caused the collapse. When the bottom line of US corporations start to feel the pinch, I fully expect to see the narrative change. Trump is banking on loosening regulation, increasing oil production and savings on Federal budgets to get the economy booming. I think there are two problems with this approach. The first is that any oil company making large, long term investment decisions will have to gamble on the post Trump administration sticking with these policies. I don't think that's a slam dunk and if the mid term elections see a swing to the democrats, then the bubble may be popped before it's inflated. The second is that stripping down the federal infrastructure might save tax, but it may also badly effect the ability of Trumps administration to govern. I've worked in companies where there have been mass redundancies. People down tools and some sabotage things. It is awful for morale. For any organisation to work, you need goodwill from the staff. Painting your own staff as the bad guys is insanity.
Business thrives when there is certainty and a stable economic environment. When there is chaos, you really don't want to start investing in long term developments. There may be short term tactical wins (selling bullets and bombs), but ultimately for a vibrant world economy, chaos is the last thing you need. Just about everyone on the planet expected Zelenskyy to sign the deal with Trump, the war to be wound down and a degree of stability to return. Trump's hissy fit showed that nothing can be taken for granted. All leaders who are invited into the Oval office will now be aware that it can go tits up in a spectacular manner. After the cordial meetings between Trump and Starmer/Macron, many leaders who were a bit wary of Trump probably thought "Maybe he's not so bad". The brutal truth is that they cannot escape the fact that a meeting with Trump and Vance is like playing catch with a live hand grenade.
And one last observation on the world scene. Don't overrate the capabilities of Putin. He invaded Ukraine because he thought Ukraine would collapse. It didn't. He's had to shore up his army with North Korean conscripts. His biggest Middle Eastern ally in Syria got booted out. He is reliant on China to shore him up. Putin desperately wants a way out. He had hoped that Trump would strike a dea with Zelenskyy, so that the war could end, he could nick some territory and claim a victory and the sanctions would be lifted. What happened was not a victory for him. If Europe does get its act together and shore up Ukraine without the US, then that is a real disaster for Putin. The idea that an army who couldn't beat Ukraine is a threat to the rest of us is lunacy.
The only real solace for me, is that this will pass. The Trump era will not last forever. So long as Tangoman's ineptitude doesn't blow us all up, I am pretty convinced that this will eventually come to be seen as a rather odd interlude in history, when people wonder how the hell we ever got into this mess.
Tangoman's behaviour inspired me to put this together, it uses a live track from The False Dots recent gig.
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