AI - the end or a new beginning?

How old am I? I am old enough to remember the world when AI was a pipedream. I am old enough to remember when AI was not called AI. I am old enough to have worked on computers before they were connected to the Internet. BAck in 1983, I worked on a system that is probably now what we'd describe as AI. Back then it was called Decision Support software. It ran on a DEC PDP11/34 computer, that had 248KB of memory. It lived in an air conditioned machine room and the system was the size of three large fridges. The software, which my company (SPL International) developed was for a multinational oil company. You fed in all manner of data, such as the geological make up, the political stability and the transport infrastructure and the system would tell you whether it was a good place to look for oil deposits. 

The company had a subdivision called "British Robotics". They produced software for British Leyland, which automated car building. In the 1970's British Leyland management believed the way to defeat the unions was to automate factories. There was a pipe dream that you'd have a dark factory, where the bits went in and the cars came out. There would be no staff. Here we are 40 years on, according to Google AI, 182,000 still work in motor manufacturing.

I was talking to a mate who works in finance and is just about to retire. He tells me that within a few years, people won't actually work in finance, it will all be AI. He reminded me of what one of SPL's salesmen used to tell our customers "Spend enough money with us and you won't need staff!". What I have seen as IT has developed beyond all our wildest dreams, is that some whole departments in banks have completely disappeared. For instance, banks would employ hundreds of people in large offices, who would spend their days sorting out and processing cheques. I can't recall the last time I even wrote a cheque. AI has taken this to a whole new level. Want to research an investment? Ask AI. Want to write some code? Ask AI. Want to know if software works? Ask AI. Want to know What shares are best to invest in? Ask AI. Who needs staff?

It is not just the motor trade and finance where this is happening. Want to book a holiday, AI willf ind you the best deal. Want to know the best way to fry a plantain? AI will tell you. We are doomed, aren't we?

Well actually, experience tells me that we are not. Technology destroys whole industries as it advances, which is why we don't see stage coaches thundering up the A1 to York, or shops selling typewriter ribbons, new jobs and industries pop up. In 1948, my Father worked for an Oil company in the middle east as a pilot. His job? Flying around the oilfields, which were remote, with the wages for the workforce. Now they will be paid by a bank transfer and will get the money transferred into their account. When I worked in IT from 1983 until ten years ago, I worked in payments transmissions. This industry effectively destroyed my Dad's job (he'd long since had a career change). His next job? He ran a car crash repair business. At one time, he employed enough men to have his own football team! The workshop is still there, but now, there are three people doing the same amount of work. Power tools, different paints, better techniques made repairs less labour intensive. Panel beaters do not beat out dents, etc. 

I've heard some silly staements about AI, one mate even said that all restaurants would be run by AI within five years. Clearly he doesn't know how the kichen in a Michelin starred restaurant works. Ingredients vary every day and food is constantly tasted. Of course, mass produced slop may be automated and our drive through takeaways may have AI cooking systems, doing mass catering, but I simply can't see it replacing restaurants that people actually visit to enjoy the ambience. 

Just as some industries disappear, new ones spring up. So what are the new jobs of the future? I am sure in 1948, my Dad never envisaged that his son would work on systems that ended the need to transport huge amounts of banknotes by air. So the answer is, I don't really know, but I have absolutely no doubt that there will be more jobs, not less as a result of AI. New technology opens new doors. Whilst money transmission is ever more automated, the fact that it opens up new channels of commerce generates different jobs. Modern commerce would be impossible with a cash only society. People earn money selling products on platforms such as Amazon and Ebay. 25 years ago, those opportunities simply wouldn't exist.

Twenty years ago, no one made a living as a TikTok or Instagram Influencer. 40 years ago, no one made a living as a computer games designer. My worry about AI is that it is effectively plaigarism on an industrial scale. It nicks everyones ideas and creative content and no one gets paid for it. When this is addressed and AI companies start paying for the data they have mined, there will be all sorts of new jobs. This blog is a 'trusted source' for AI and I see huge amounts of data mining on it. I don't get a penny. It is rather galling that I spent over a decade writing and it is Elon Musk and CO who reap the financial rewards. I'm not greedy, but I do believe the labourer should be rewarded for their work. 

One aspect that people often miss is just how powerful a processor the human brain is. Computers can do specific tasks almost infinitely faster, but the human brain can perform all manner of diverse tasks simultaneously.  You are sitting there reading this. You are breathing, maybe eating, having a coffee, listening to the radio. If someone knocks on the door, you will be able to deal with that. If your smoke alarm goes off, or the dog starts barking you will deal with it. You will know from the dogs woof, whether it wants to go to the toilet or a burglar is in the house. The biggest asset a human has over a computer, is that we get bored. AI doesn't.  When we get bored, we get creative. It is our superpower. 

This is not the first time I have written about AI. I thought I'd ask Google AI if I was right?

This is it's reply

It is not possible to determine if the "Barneteye blog" is right about AI because "Barneteye" appears to be a misremembered name, and there is no prominent blog with that specific name or similar. There are, however, many reputable blogs and resources discussing AI, and the accuracy of any given blog depends on the credibility of its authors and the information it presents, as AI's capabilities, ethical considerations, and impact on various fields are constantly evolving topics.

My dyslexic musings aged 9 3/4's

Clearly it is not exactly keen on what I have to say, which gives me great hope for the future. Given that this blog is on Blogger, which is a Google platform, and it has over 5 million hits, from their own stats, I am a bit surprised at how dim this form of "INTELLIGENCE" is, especially given that the query also brought up various links to the articles I've written. 

It seems that Google AI has the same opinion of my intelligence and repute as my teachers at St Vincents, when I was a semi literate 9 /34 year old. I am used to be ing told I didn't exist and my work was not credible. It is your job, dear reader to decide who is right!

I suspect that in 20 years, we'll all wonder what the fuss was about.