Why Brexit will benefit the hard left, not the hard right

 I regularly talk to people from all across the political spectrum. People often say that those on the ultra hard left are much the same as those on the ultra hard right. Both definately share one thing in common, the inability to see any of the shades between black and white and the belief that just about everything is a binary choice. Both saw #Brexit as a huge opportunity to advance their particular viewpoint. The question that has been interesting me is whether it is the hard left or the hard right that will reap the benefits of Brexit.

For those on the right, they saw Brexit as an opportunity to roll back regulations, to shake off the restrictions on trade placed by the EU, allowing us to move to a free trade nirvana. They also loved the idea of the UK taking control of its borders and restricting those who could live and work in the UK. Those on the left took the view that restrictions on cheap migrant labour would strengthen the position of workers, promote organised labour unions and ultimately see more state control of industry as the UK economy struggles to adapt to the shock of Brexit. 

So where are we right now? Well it seems that if we want to sell to the EU, our largest market, we need to follow their rules anyway. We just don't have any say when they are drawn up. As to the free trade nirvana, this pipe dream is slowly fading, when the reality of having to actually negotatiate dozens of highly complex trade deals with nations we have trading links with. For big trading partners such as the USA, it has become clear that they do not share the view of Boris. The USA has no interest at all in entertaining a mega trade deal. 

From todays Daily Express

This position will not change whilst Joe Biden or anyone of his viewpoint is president, which effectively means for the next three and a half years. Whilst we are likely to see small deals, the dreams of a new free trading Great Britain has all but gone up in smoke. As to taking control of the borders and stopping free movement of people. This has not exactly been a stunning success. About a million people have gone back to EU countries by some estimates. Most of them were hard working and we now have a labour shortage. We are starting to see empty shelves as a result. Supply chains developed over decades with the EU are no longer functioning properly. The right wing press are still going bonkers about refugees entering. As Boris Johnson has developed a penchant for antagonising the French, they are doing nothing to assist the UK in stemming the flow. From a hard right perspective, there is little to crow about on the Brexit front and it is likely to get worse. Of course many of them blame the pandemic, but in many ways this has softened the blow of Brexit as the economy was semi shut down when we left. It is only as we recover the real damage becomes clear. Even Nigel Farage is now admitting that the trade deal with the USA isn't happening. Farage knows damn well that any chance of this disappeared when Trump left the White House.

Our PM goes on and on about British beef exports to the USA but is completely mute on a trade deal.

Boris, where's the beef?

— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) September 21, 2021

From the hard left perspective, the picture is altogether different. The Labour market has tightened, giving workers the whip hand. Whereas previously, wages were suppressed by cheap labour, now firms are having to pay decent wages and offer good conditions if they want to retain staff. Trades Unions are starting to organise in a way we've not seen since Margaret Thatcher came to power. It is in the interests of employers to work with Unions, as if staff become disenchanted, then they can easily find other jobs. The government is also having to take urgent action to prop up key sectors of the economy. No one seems to have noticed, but railways have by and large been renationalised, energy companies are seeking bale outs and we are having to face up to a national plan to resecure energy supplies. With each crisis, the hard left can add more fuel to the argument that the liberal capitalist economy is failing. None of us know whether we will see power cuts and food shortages this Xmas, but if we do, it will be very difficult for Boris Johnson to maintain his Teflon coating. The one thing Boris has in his favour is that the Labour Party, under Sir Keir Starmer are not really looking to push a hard left agenda. From my perspective, they look like Conservatives who've had a makeover to make them more palitable. 

As we see empty shelves, power supplies in chaos, we don't see Sir Keir on TV laying out why it's happening and what and who is to blame. Sir Keir has the rather quaint view that people in the North of England don't want to be told that the empty shelves are a very real sign that #Brexit isn't working. When Sir Keir Starmer became Labour leader, I expected his forensic debating skills as a top Barrister to soon expose Boris Johnson and his inept government for what it really is. Instead what has happened is that Boris has realised that Sir Keir never proposes a solution for anything and never takes a stand on anything. Sir Keir has been leader for a while now and no one knows what he stands for, what his solutions for the problems facing the UK are and why we should vote Labour. It is the perceived wisdom that Labour are simply standing back and hoping the Tories make such a hash of it that they can simply walk in at the next election. One thing we should all realise is that if the Tories believe Boris starts to look like he'll lose the Tories seats, they will dump him as quickly as possible. 

In many ways, it seems to me that we are lumbered with a government that is incapable of doing the job and an opposition that is incapable of holding them account for landing us in this mess. The hard left must be absolutely gutted that it got it's timing so wrong. If they can ever move away from the public perception of being a cabal of anti semites, which seems highly unlikely in the short term, they might get some traction as they would have strong Union backing and organisational support. 

The UK really has two options. One is to somehow make Brexit work. How this can be done with labour shortages, energy shortages and empty supermarket shelves is difficult for me to envisage. The other option is for is to figure out a way to rejoin the EU club without the country falling apart. I can only really see this happening when there are real life day to day impacts on ordinary voters everyday lives. It seems to me that Boris has taken a punt on President Macron losing the French election and a new incumbent being more amenable to him. This seems unlikely. 

Finally I can't finish off a bnlog about the EU without mentioning Ireland. President Biden is very keen to push his Irish connections and this means that we not only have to deal with the EU, we have to try and keep Biden onside.  Back in January, I predicted, semi jokingly,  that in October the following would happen

Elisabeth Truss flies to the USA to try and negotiate a trade deal. Joe Biden tells her that this can only be completed if the UK cedes Northern Ireland to the Republic. Truss agrees and Irish Nationalists everywhere celebrate. Truss claims that her action is only a practical recognition of what Boris had put into effect with the Brexit treaty.

To me this doesn't seem as far fetched as it did in January. In short, we are in a mess and I don't trust either the Conservatives or Labour to get us out of it, with their current crop of incompetents. I can't see the EU wanting us back in the short to medium term and I can't see us ever getting the trade deals we were promised by vote leave, the billions for the NHS or any of the other benefits that swung the country behind the pipedream. Of course Farage and his crew will blame the EU (for defending their key interests), Biden (becauase he isn't Trump), and everyone else, when it is clear where the problem lies.

Ultimately, it seems to me that the only people who really will benefit from Brexit will be the hard left, who will gain many of their objectives without coming anywhere near power. The world is a funny old place.

A guide to the Festival of #Brexit

#BREXITFEST SPPONSORED BY PORKIE'S PIES

The Barnet Eye is absolutely delighted to be able to announce that we have been leaked an early copy of the plans for Boris Johnson's Festival of Brexit from our mate Stan in the Cabinet Office.

 Here are just a few of the amazing exhibits that we can expect to see.

1. Råttenfisk - This amazing installation consists of 43 tonnes of rotting fish, which fishermen are now unable to export to the EU following the new Brexit rules. You can take home your very own rotten haddock, which can be easily tied to the subframe of your neighbours car, giving you hours of fun as he tries to work out where the pong comes from.

2.  Visaworld! -  This brilliant work is a collection of all the Visa's that you now need to secure if you wish to visit Europe. There is a fascinating section displaying all the attractive stamps you can now get in your passport, for a small fee, when you visit EU member states. 

3. 90 Days? A short film documenting the fun British expat citizens living in the EU, who did not fill out the required paperwork for residency, have had packing their possessions as they move back to Good Old Blighty.

4. Scheisse! An immersive display, where you can bathe in fresh river waters from around the UK following removal of EU protections for water quality.

5. Road Trip. A humourous look at life in the fast lane of the M20, with a UK Lorry driver explaining the hours of fun you can have filling customs declarations and border checks as you collect Gherkins from Hungary to fill our shelves.

6. Ireland Oh Ireland. The romantic tale of the cross border trade in horse semen for the Irish racing industry throughout the ages and how the new border in the Irish sea is affecting Irish racehorse owners racing horses in the UK.

7. A Place in the Sun. A fantastic display of ways that the mega rich can get around all of that annoying paperwork that prevents plebs buying homes in the sun, now we are no longer EU citizens, with a humourous introduction from Stanley Johnson, explaining how checking your second property is not a holiday for the purposes of Covid laws.

8. Born to Be Blue. A look at the amazing new blue British Passport and a short list of all the places it is now easier and cheaper to visit since Brexit..

9. Goal. This fantastic installation looks at all of the profesional footballers who Premiership clubs would no longer be able to employ had #Brexit been in place and explains the huge benefit not being able to recruit young talent from the EU will have on the Premiership.

10. Love in a cold climate. A specially commissioned play detailing the tragic tale of Romeo a young Frenchman and Juliette a young Londoner, who fall in love but are kept apart for 90 days out of every 180 by Brexit regulations.

AND A VERY SPECIAL UNVEILING OF A STATUE OF NIGEL FARAGE BOARDING A SEALINK FERRY TO CELEBRATE THE SUCCESS OF BREXIT!

Disclaimer - Sadly, we made this up. Not the effects that are detailed, which are 100% accurate, but sadly you won't be able to get a rotten haddock, swim in Schiese of see the wonderful collection of visa's at the festival. However, if Boris fancies paying me as a consultant at the usual exhorbitant consultancy rates that he pays his mates, I'll happily put it all together for him!

Six reasons why Boris will come to bitterly regret proroguing Parliament

It hasn't taken us long for Boris Johnson to reveal what sort of Prime Minister he will be. I have spent a very long time watching him. I started writing a blog as a direct result of his campaign for the job of London Mayor in 2008. I was very active on the comments section of the Barnet Times. In those far off, heady days, he started as a bit of a buggins turn joke candidate. The Tories had virtually given up on beat Ken Livingstone and saw it as a good way for David Cameron to park him out of the way for a while. It seemed that no one seriously gave Boris a chance, except for Boris and me. I realised something that seems to have passed most political commentators by. Boris had a high media profile and the recognition made him dangerous. Ken Livingstone fought a normal Labour Campaign. Boris ran as a maverick. He smashed the vote, as much to the amazement of the Tory high command as everyone else. I joked the day after that I'd have a tenner on him becoming the Prime Minister. Boris confounded all expectations and didn't become a complete failure, despite many ridiculously stupid mistakes and gaffs. He is one of the few Politicians who is seemingly coated in Teflon. But whilst being a Teflon coated maverick has served him well thus far, yesterday he played a hand that I believe will spell the end of him. There are five reasons. 

The only Pork Pies British voters like

1. The British Public do not like liars. Look at Tony Blair. His period of PM was by far the most economically successful of any post war PM. The economy thrived and the country proudly stood up as one of the leading nations in the world. But Blair lied to Parliament and when that sunk in, his reputation was finished. When Boris and his cronies announced yesterday that the suspension of Parliament was nothing to do with Brexit, everyone in the country knew that he was lying. It was the sole reason. Whilst many Brexiteers yesterday marvelled at what they saw as a masterstroke to deliver their dreams, I believe that as they are decent people, when the intoxication wears off, they will see that we are lead by a man who cannot tell the truth. If he'd come out and said "The People voted for Brexit, this is the only way I can deliver it" then their celebrations would be justified. What he has in fact said is that "I'm going to lie my way through this process". Personally I would have thought that rather than suspending party conferences, with the Brexit Deadlin looming, the Parties should have cancelled them and worked night and day in Parliament to sort the mess out. But however you look at it, Boris has told the British people a whopper and when the dust settles, no one will trust him.

2. Boris has shown just how weak his position is. Boris is a leader who has not won an election and who leads a party that has no majority in Parliament. He needed to build bridges with Parliament to see through his plans. If he had faith in his position, he'd not have needed to take such a desperate gamble. The EU are not fools. They realise that he has alienated Parliament. He had few cards to play and hehas even fewer now. His action has forced all decent Conservative MP's to think very carefully whether they wish to be part of something that undermines the sovereignty of Parliament. He has given sceptical MP's no wriggle room. He would not have done this if he wasn't desperate. 

3.Boris has exposed his bargaining position to the EU. The one card Boris had was to do a deal with The Brexit Party and go for a hard Brexit. Nigel Farage made overtures. He stated that if Boris went for a hard Brexit, he'd stand his party down and let Boris romp home for an election. If Boris had cobbled together a list of demands and said to the EU "Accept this or I'll call an election, sign a pact with the Brexit Party and pull us out with no deal and no £39 million payment to you", then he'd have had leverage. But by Proroguing Parliament, he's said the opposite, which is why Nigel Farage is on the warpath. Farage knows that Boris wants a Theresa May light deal. He's in face saving territory. The move is purely to get this through with no debate. Boris knows Parliament will not accept a hard Brexit, so it will have to accept his deal, no matter how poor, if he refuses to defer the date or revoke article 50. I suspect that all the hard Brexiteers posting triumphantly on Twitter today, will be posting very different things in November.

4. Boris has shown contempt for his own party colleagues. The resignation of Ruth Davidson and Lord Young today show just how much damage he has caused. To lose your leader in Scotland and The House of Lords on the same day is a disaster for Boris. Ruth Davidson is highly respected and has rebuilt Tory fortunes. If Boris calls a snap election, he needs the MP's she brought to the table. As for Lord Young, his resignation shows what men of honour and experience think of his actions. When the dust settles, there will be many Tory peers who are very uncomfortable.

5. Boris has jettisoned all veneer of legitimacy, when he needed it most. Since 2010, we've only had a PM elected and commanding a majority in Parliament for a year. When David Cameron resigned after the referendum, Theresa May had the albatross of legitimacy around her neck. To fix this, she called an election and failed to secure a majority. She had to be propped up by the DUP in exchange for a huge bung. Now we have Boris, not elected and a member of a party that doesn't even have a majority in Parliament, and is one MP away from losing that majority, even with the DUP support. For a man in such a position to Prorogue Parliament is quite ridiculous. He has no legitimacy and has managed to make John McDonnell sound statesmanlike describing the process.

6. Boris has set a dangerous precedent. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that by the end of the year, we'll have a government lead by Jeremy Corbyn. Whilst the Tories lead in the polls at the moment, if Brexit descends into chaos, and a general election falls in the middle of food riots, there could well be a massive swing to Corbyn. Should Corbyn decide that he needs to act unconstitutionally to get his programme implemented, the Tories will be unable to criticise as they have set the precedent. It often seems like a good idea at the time to pull these jolly wheeze stunts, but the law of unintended consequences means that only years after, do we see the true damage that has been caused.

In summary, we have a Prime Minister who has exposed himself as a liar, shown the weakness of his position, damaged his negotiating position with the EU, demonstrated that he has contempt for his own colleagues, jettisoned his veneer of legitimacy and set a precedent that an incoming neo Marxist Corbyn government would find very handy indeed. Those are the six reasons why Boris will come to bitterly regret proroguing Parliament