Farage's Nuremburg style rally demonstrates the lack of political savvy of Reform

I don't agree with Reform's politics at all, but I didn't write this blog to criticise their policies. I assume anyone reading the Barnet Eye is perfectly capable of making their own minds up. I know a few Reform voters read the blog and we often have interesting chats over a pint at our local pubs. It is fair to say that they are more excited and animated than at any stage since the Brexit referendum. So what is this blog about?

This blog is more about a couple of absolutely schoolboy errors Reform have made, as a political campaign machine. I've just been watching the Reform rally on Sky News. I was flicking the channels and there it was, a live stream from Birmingham. I was fascinated to see Farage in action. There can be no doubt that he's an excellent public speaker, if you like that sort of thing. Every seat had a bum on it in the hall, Sky said there were 5,000 people in there. Without anyone to scrutinise him, he really was on good form. He was able to debunk many myths to his loyal supporters. He was also able to set the record straight about various scandals etc that have befallen the Reform campaign. I am sure everyone in the hall lapped it up and thoroughly enjoyed their afternoon.

I actually spoke to someone who voted Reform using a postal vote on Friday. I was surprised as they were not someone I'd expect to touch Reform with a bargepoll. What they said was quite illuminating. The truth is that Sunak has comprehensively lost the team. I asked if the Tories had canvassed them, as they are a registered postal voter and a former supporter. The answer was no. The Tories locally are usually brilliant at this. I can only assume that they've given up on Hendon and are putting their full efforts into seats that they think they can win. I think Reform will poll better in Hendon as a result and the Tories a lot worse. But it won't translate into winning the seat. This is why I think the rally was a huge tactical and strategic mistake by Reform.

The first mistake was holding a rally like this on the last Sunday of campaigning. I have to assume that Reform packed the hall with 5,000 of their best activists. These are the people who go out and knock on doors and change people's minds. Today is a Sunny day, people are in good moods and many will be at home getting ready for the football. I've done a lot of campaigning and canvassing and the last weekend before the election is the one where you put every last ounce of energy into turning those few voters who may win you aa seat. Except the activists were all at Birmingham. You may say "Well far more will watch Sky News than could ever be knocked up". This is, of course, true but one of the main purposes of canvassing is to identify your supporters, so you can get them out on election day. We all know what Nigel Farage looks like. We all know he's a more dynamic speaker than Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, then again my goldfish is. Most people do not watch long speeches by party leaders, unless they are already converted. However if those 5,000 supporters had been put into, say the 50 most likely target seats, that would be a 100 door knockers in each. If each knocked on 100 doors today, that would be 10,000 engagements in key marginals. If they could turn, say 2,500 Tory waiverers, that would be the difference between winning and coming second. Whatever effect the TV coverage of the rally has had, the butter is spread thin and not targetted. By my estimates, every seat that Reform miss by less than 400 votes on Thursday, they would probably had won if they'd had the 5,000 out there knocking on doors rather than having a love in with Nigel. 

The second mistake is that it was clear that a huge amount of logistical effort has gone into the rally. I have to wonder whether the resources of the party have been sensibly used in spending the time sorting this out. You could've plonked Farage down with some Reform supporting celeb, fed him tame questions and got the same output. Reform may feel that showing Farage parading and swooning to a home crowd will make him look presidential, but I suspect that most normal people will just dismiss it out of hand. It very much seemed to me that Farage was more there to soak up the adulation than to win votes. I do wonder if they have any real strategy at all to win seats. As a member of the Lib Dems, I know how hard it is for a third party to break through. You have to target areas properly and do a lot of work in them. If the Lib Dems win more seats than Reform, it will not be because the system is broken, it will be because the Lib Dems know how to get the best bang for their buck.

Which brings us onto the third thing that I think Farage got horribly wrong. Again it went down well with the home audience, but I suspect it will play badly with the wider voting public. It seems that every mishap was the fault of someone else and a conspiracy by the Liberal Elite. Hostile questions from the audience? That was because the BBC picked an audience of Reform haters. Racism from his campaign team? That was the fault of Channel four emplying dodgy actors to wind people up. Then there was his rant about the governor of the Bank of England. Clearly a baddy, although I doubt too many of the 5,000 really had a clue why he'd earned Nigel's ire. I may be stupid and naive and know nothing of politics, but having a rant about someone 90% of your audience have never heard of, about something they don't have a clue about, just makes you look like you are going off on one.

Another mistake is that Farage has done this in the period after most people have done their postal votes. Most people receive them and do the more or less immediately. This sort of political TV evangelism is ideal for postal voters, but most have been done. Now we are into the in person voters. That is why door knocking is important. 

The final point which I think they got horribly wrong is the timing. Farage and Reform were clearly hoping that the rally would be the top story on the news tonight. That surely is the point. This shows how clueless they are. The story will be England v Slovakia. By the time News at Ten is on, everyone's memory of Nigels massive rally will be a dim memory. Planning a keynote event before the biggest football match this year was bonkers. If he'd had it on Scotland or Wales, he may have got a better reception. 

It is pretty clear to me that Reform will do well in terms of numbers of votes. I know plenty of people who will be voting for them. Most are disgruntled Tories. What is much less clear is whether this will transform into actual seats. If they under perform, I predict that Farage will blame everyone, without looking at how naively he marshalled his resources the weekend before the election. Where the Tories are really fighting Reform, they will have people out walking the streets, cajoling waiverers to keep the faith. I'm really not sure that Farage wants to be the Prime Minister. He's seen how quickly the public fell out of love with Boris when the promises evapourated and his true character was exposed. I think Farage knows his limitations. He's a great orator, he is a showman, as he claimed he has charisma. He claimed this was necessary for dealing with ISIS and Putin. Sadly I don't think this is true. What you need is someone who understands the problem and understands what the UK can and can't do. If Farage really believes, as he claims, that Charisma is the key, then I suspect like the result on Thursday, he will never really be given the platform to put things to the test. 

But then again, what do I know. Over the last ten years I've woken up after votes to shocks on serveral occasions and voters are a fickle lot. But if I''m right, I think this blog may tell you why. 

#ITVDebate - Lord help us, they are both useless

 I've just watched the #ITVDebate with my missus. We are both horrified. The pair of them were completely useless. In short, the whole thing was embarrassing. The host was completely ineffective, allowing both to constantly interrupt each other, Sunak was particularly bad at this. For some reason, they were only allowed 45 seconds to answer a question. For several questions, this was nowhere near long enough, although for others it seemed far too long. 

The difficult truth is that one of these men will be the next Prime Minister. I couldn't really see any knockout blows. I doubt anyone changed anyones mind, which clearly favours Starmer. They both talked about their "plan". Oddly neither really used the opportunity to say what their plan was. I'm none the wiser.

Rishi Sunak seems to think that saying Labour will put up everyones taxes by £2,000 is a winner. I suspect that he'll have to do a lot better. A couple of observations. Rishi Sunak clearly seems to be used to talking across people. At the end Sunak said "Lower taxes, protected pensions". In short, he's putting the house on the OAP's of the UK. Starmer doesn't seem to be quite so sure who his main target audience is. 

One thing I guess I now know. Whoever the pair are trying to appeal to, it isn't me!

Six no brainer policies for the next Government

 Whoever takes over when the next government is formed faces some monumental challenges. It will not be an easy time for whoever wins. However, having said that, I believe that there are six policies that any incoming Government should pass ASAP, that will deliver real change, make the UK a better place and clearly demonstrate that the drift and lack of leadership of the last few years is at an end. What are they.

1. Water companies. It is ridiculous that they are pumping raw sewage into our rivers and streams, causing a situation where almost no waterways are safe. Why are they doing this? Because it is cheaper than investing in the system to prevent it. Fixing this is the easiest thing in the world. Water companies should face fines that are so expensive that it is cheaper to fix the problem. I would also make it a criminal offence to hide, not disclose or not investigate sewage discharges, with top officials having personal culpability. I believe that this would lead to the problem being fixed in one parliament.

The Guardian reports today that water companies are putting in for huge rises.

Estimates of bill increases requested by companies

• Southern Water – 91% to £915

• Thames Water – 59% to £749

• Hafren Dyfrdwy – 56% to £676

• Severn Trent – 50% to £657

• Wessex Water – 50% to £822

• Yorkshire Water – 46% to £682

• Dŵr Cymru – 43% to £702

• United Utilities – 38% to £666

• South East Water – 35% £330

• Pennon – 33% to £644

• Portsmouth Water – 31% to £157

• SES – 30% to £315

• Anglian Water – 29% to £682

• Northumbrian Water and Essex & Suffolk Water – 26% to £530

• Affinity Water – 25% to £294

• South Staffs & Cambridge Water – 24% to £221
  Source: Consumer Council for Water
  Data note: The figures are estimates which include forecasts for inflation of 2% a year up to 2030 to requests from water companies submitted to Ofwat.

If like me you live in an area where the company is Affinity water, £59 of that will be gobbled up. If you live down the road in Colindale, almost all of it £275 extra will be gobbled up. The mismanagement of the economy and the water companies means that there is a postcode lottery for all of us. There is no choice. It is a monopoly. We can't do without water and sewage. All of these companies pay huge dividends, mostly to offshore investors. These companies flood our rivers with sewage. It couldn't be clearer that not only is it unfair on many. It doesn't work. 

2. Rail companies. We have somehow managed to create the worst possible environment for customers on the network. The government effectively owns the railways, and subcontracts private companies to run them. The government sets the timetables and prices and decrees staff pay. The contractors get a fixed fee to operate the system with a guaranteed profit thrown in. There is no incentive for them to innovate. Fares have gone through the roof and services are often very unreliable, despite huge investment in new trains and new systems. Bringing operations in house would mean that the taxpayer saves the money it gives to the private companies in profits. Once this is done, we need to get to grips with putting the network back on its feet. I am not totally opposed to private operators, but these should only run where there is capacity and untapped markets that the state operated providers cannot or will not exploit.

3. Housing. There are 700,000 empty dwellings in the UK. Many of these are just being sat on as investments. When people are sleeping on the street, this is criminal. I would make all properties lying empty for more than six months, liable for swinging property rates. I would exclude properties where there has been a death until the estate is settled, as this can drag on, but in all other cases, I would make it hugely expensive for owners to leave homes empty. This would offer many people a home. I would also take measures to address landbanking by developers. This practice means that homes that could be built, are not, so that developers control the supply and keep prices high.

4. The NHS. I would seek to end the outsourcing culture and reliance on contractors and agency staff. NHS trusts are paying huge fees to companies to cover gaps in staff. The NHS should only ever use such contractors to cover short term emergencies. I believe this would ultimately save billions that could be used to make the NHS great again and pay nurses and cleaners etc a decent wage.

5. Energy. I would pass a law requiring all new homes that can accommodate them to have solar panels installed as well as battery systems. This would cut energy bills for residents and help the UK become carbon neutral. If the panels are designed in at build, it is far cheaper than retro fitting them. I would also supply grants to cover the costs of insulating lofts for all properties worth under £1 million that are not properly insulated. This again will help with the UK's energy efficiency and ultimately lower all of our bills.

6. Education and careers. I would review school curriculums and ensure that these are fit for purpose, delivering young people into the workplace who have the skills required to do the jobs the economy needs. As someone who employs young people and school leavers, I am often shocked at how ill prepared young people are for work. Even basic things like understanding their tax codes etc are not taught.

As far as I am concerned, one of the biggest problems in UK politics is how few MP's have ever had jobs in the real world. I have spent my working life balancing the books, reading spreadsheets, doing VAT returns etc. Can I make a suggestion. If any of the candidates knock on your door, ask them what they do for a living. Too many MP's now simply have worked in politics. They work as special advisers to the Prime Minister and other ministers. They spend their lives in a bubble. They really have no clue what the concerns of ordinary people are, or how changes affect them. Take, for example, the latest plan from Rishi Sunak to change the tax arrangements for pensioners, which will allegedly make pensioners £300 a year better off. Sounds great doesn't it? Well as mentioned above, for many, all this will do is simply pay for the increase in water bills. It is all very well for parties to say that their changes will make you better off, but if, like me, you have a family balance spreadsheet, with all of our bills and income on, you soon realise you are being conned.

The Sunday Reflection #13 - My serious thoughts on the forthcoming general election

 I've had a bit of fun on the subject of the General Election this week. As just about no one was expecting it, including the cabinet if you can believe The Sunday Times, I hadn't really thought too hard about what I would be doing. Regular readers will know that I am a member of the Barnet Lib Dems. As I live in Hendon, the chances of a Lib Dem becoming our MP are negligible. There are two reasons I support the party. The first is that they are committed to reversing Brexit. I believe that it has been a disaster for the UK and to a lesser extent for the rest of Europe, especially Ireland. It has made both conducting business and travelling far more difficult. Huge amounts of money are being spent on checking perfectly legal travellers and goods, meaning that there is not enough to tackle things like drugs and people trafficking gangs. The sum has been announced as £4.7 Billion.  I wrote about this earlier in the week. 

The other reason is that they are committed to electoral reform and PR. The truth is that the UK rarely has a representative government. Generally we are governed by a party that doesn't even represent 50% of the population. The argument that the Tories and Labour used to use was that you'd get bad government if we had coalitions. I think that any reasonable person would say that what has followed the Tory/Lib Dem coalition has shown the opposite to be true. Whilst I was not a fan of much of what the coalition did, and resigned from the Lib Dems as a result, there was genuine proper debate about policies and to some extent the dire economic state of the UK following the credit crunch was addressed. Sadly, when the Conservatives no longer had the discipline of having to agree policies with partners, the whole thing has fallen apart. I don't believe that PR is perfect, but it is better than what we've seen.

When I was putting this blog together, I reviewed the journey from David Cameron becoming PM to the moment Rishi Sunak called the election. When we went to the polls in 2015, The UK was respected and seen as a country that was governed by sensible grown ups, who were prepared to take difficult decisions. Cameron got a decent majority and the Lib Dems were severely and rightly punished for reneging on the student loan policy. I genuinely believe that they could and should have stuck to their guns. The UK would be a better place. It was the right policy. They didn't. What followed since has been chaos. In nine years since we've had five Tory Prime Ministers, Cameron - a disaster who lumbered us with Brexit, failing to run an honest referendum campaign, playing into the hands of Farage. When he failed, he scarpered. Theresa May took over. She was also a disaster. She called an election that wasn't needed and lost her majority. Not only that, she lost it in the face of a chaotic Labour party, riddled with splits and lead by Jeremy Corbyn. She had to be propped up by the DUP, which to me was shameful. She was deposed by Boris Johnson, who promised to "Get Brexit done". He lead a Tory party that had a strong message (albeit one I totally disagreed with). Johnson proved he was a great campaigner, winning a big majority and decapitating Corbynism. Sadly, he also proved he was a hopeless administrator, with Downing Street becoming the centre of lockdown Rave culture. His authority and his administration fell apart. It seemed that no one could be worse, but the Tories proved otherwise, enlisting Liz Truss as PM. In an act of wanton vandalism, she and her chancellor announced a totally irresponsible, uncosted budget. The markets ripped her apart. She was gone in less time than it takes a lettuce to rot. Rishi Sunak came in. To be fair, he has to some degree addressed the mess that Truss left, but he has no real authority, no vision and no plan. The UK has rivers full of excrement, trains that are costly and unreliable, a lower standard of living, no plan for energy security resulting in huge bills. School budgets are creaking and the NHS has massive waiting lists. Much of this is simply because the Tory party is unable to agree anything. It is riven by factions.

As for Labour, I am very unimpressed with Sir Keir Starmer. He seems to have no policies and no charisma. I am quite impressed with his deputy, Rachel Reeve, who does at least seem to understand economics. Given where Starmer was when he took over from Corbyn, you have to grudgingly admit he has got their act together. My biggest issue with Starmer is that he seems very cowardly in his refusal to admit that Brexit is ruining the UK. He also seems happy with first past the post. 

The problem is we don't live in a perfect world. For what the Tories inflicted upon our wallets with Truss, they should be thrown out of office. The party demonstrated that it cared less about the people of the UK than odd the ideology that seems to excite right wing think tanks and 'research groups'. These fools live in ivory towers and mist have never had a real job or run a business. What the UK needs is a period of stability, sensible government and long term planning. Things like spending billions on HS2 and then cancelling it are signs of serial incompetence. 

What I am hoping for is a hung parliament, where the Lib Dems have a block of 50-60 MP's and form a coalition with a Starmer Labour party to sort the mess out. I would make PR and a winding back of Brexit key elements. I accept that re-joining the EU may be a problem, not least because they will be cautious and may not want us. But we should make things work better. 

For this to happen, we all need to vote tactically. We need to vote for the person most likely to defeat the incumbent Conservative MP. In Hendon, this means voting for David Pinto-Dushinsky. I won't be posting any videos endorsing him, but I have no hesitation in urging any Lib Dem who wants to see a change of government to do the same. Just as I urge every Labour supporter in seats where the Lib Dems are second and have a serious prospect of winning to vote Lib Dem. It isn't perfect, but for the actions of Truss, the contempt Boris Johnson had for us during Covid and the sheer lack of vision and incompetence of Sunak, cancelling things such as HS2, wasting billions and botching border arrangements with the EU, the Conservatives deserve to be booted out. What replaces them is even more important. The 2010-2015 coalition demonstrated that you can have strong, effective government with coalitions. I believe the next government should be bold, brave and representative. 

One last thing. The failure of Nigel Farage to stand as a candidate should demonstrate to everyone that the man cares little for the people of the UK. If he really believed in what he's been spouting, he would have stood. 

Ten Reasons to vote for Ameet Jogia, your Conservative candidate in Hendon

 It seems that there have been a plethora of videos from former Lib Dems in Hendon, urging people to vote for David Pinto-Duschinsky. the Labour candidate. I am horrified by such videos. Here is the worst example, by former candidate Alisdair Hill.

I simply cannot understand how on earth anyone could possibly post such a horrible piece of cinematography. I mean, if you are going to try and grab your two minutes of fame, you should at least get some exciting theme music and some sexy action shots. If Alisdair was photographed falling down a Tory pothole or not being arrested for shoplifting because there are no police, that would be fine, but come on, filming a video standing in your hall, with a couple of cheap Woolworths pictures from 1987 on the wall behind you is not going to convince anyone! I had been planning to tactically vote for David Pinto-Duschinsky, as I really want to see the back of this awful Tory government, however after seeing this horrible video, I've been totally put off and will be voting for our CONSERVATIVE candidate Ameet Jogia.

There are ten excellent reasons to vote for Ameet Jogia, the Tory candidate.

1. The Cheese shop pledge.  Back in 2010, the then Tory candidate Matthew Offord promised the residents of Mill Hill a cheese shop if he was elected. Sadly after fourteen years, no cheese shop materialised. However, I believe that Ameet Jogia is made of sterner stuff. As I love cheese, I simply can't wait. Since Matthew Offord won in 2010, many shops on Mill Hill Broadway have closed and are now lying derelict. There are plenty of opportunities for a cheesemonger! If Mr Jogia knocks on your door, ask him if he's committed to revitalising The Broadway and bringing is a cheese shop.

2. Repairing our roads. Mr Jogia has stated in his leaflet that "it is important for local businesses to have the best possible roads for transportation". I can't argue with that. Clearly he has a far better plan than his predecessor Matthew Offord, who in the last fourteen years has presided over the complete disintegration of Barnet's roads. I am not quite sure why Mr Jogia thinks only local businesses need decent roads, but I for one am pleased that he's on the case.

3. Keeping Bus fares low. In his leaflet, Mr Jogia states "Giving local leaders the funding to keep bus fares low" is a key pledge. Given that his predecessor Matthew Offord had slated Sadiq Khan for freezing bus fares, this is a welcome change and a wonderful reason to vote for Mr Jogia.

4. Immigration. Mr Jogia states that Rishi Sunak's plan is working and voting for him will deliver "controlled immigration". I do love an optimist!

5. Ameet was born in Edgware and has lived locally all of his life! His leaflet makes this proud boast. I was also born in Edgware General and have lived locally all of my life (apart from six months in Stockholm in 1981). This clearly means that he is  wonderful and deserves my vote. Maybe I should stand, as I'm older than him and have lived here far longer, so I'm even better qualified.

6. Lower mortgage rates. This is a wonderful pledge. As I've still got seven years of my mortgage left and my payments have trebled under Rishi Sunak, this is a wonderful commitment. Me being an uninformed idiot, I thought the Bank of England set interest rates, but if Mr Jogia will lower them, then he's the man for me!

7. More Police! Now this is a wonderful pledge. Since David Cameron decimated police budgets in 2010, Mill Hill. A quick look at the local crime map shows just how dangerous it is to live in Mill Hill.

After 14 years of this, it is wonderful that Mr Jogia is going to fix things. 

8. A commitment to net zero. As regular readers will know, I am a big fan of net zero. I was interested to see that his strategy involves "letting households keep their gas boilers for as long as they work". Now this does require translation. What he is actually saying is that no one will be allowed to have a new gas boiler, once their old one packs up. It is a shame that his proof reader didn't make this a bit clearer as this is a key part of meeting net zero requirements.

9. Ameet loves local businesses. How do I know? He said so! Here's what he said on Facebook "Mill Hill is an amazing part of our community, with amazing local businesses." So amazing that he said it twice in one sentence! He clearly wasn't taught by Miss O'Donovan at St Vincents, where you'd get hit on the knuckles with a ruler for doing such things. Anyone who defies Miss O'Donovan is fine by me! Having explained why Alisdair Hill's video turned me to Ameet, I thought I'd check out his latest video. Sadly, it is even more boring that Alisdair's. It really doesn't bring out the fun side of Ameet and his mates in the Conservatives. But hey ho, at least no cheap pics from Woolies! (you may notice that Ameet claims he was born in Hendon. In his leaflet he says he was born in Edgware, I wish he'd make his mind up).

10. We All Love a Party! Labour are a complete bunch of misery guts. Whilst Labour were being misery guts bores and following the law during lockdown, the Tory were showing us how to party. Admittedly the rest of us were getting fined and arrested for such things, but what is the point of being in charge if you have to follow the same rules as the little people! My band The False Dots wrote a song called "We All love a Party" and I think that it would be an excellent soundtrack for the Tories, the perfect antidote to the bloke playing "Things can only get better". As every other Lib Dem seems to be making videos supporting Labour, here's my one for the Tories!  I've taken Ameet's rather dull video and made something everyone will enjoy!

You are welcome!

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Rishi Sunak's big Election gamble

 This afternoon, I went to the gym at around 2pm. I was listening to music in the car after lunch. I did my 5km row, my 12.5km cycle, 10 minutes in the Sauna, half an hour in the Jacuzzi, a quick run around to the studio in the car with music on. I sat down to do some paperwork, only to be greeted by the news that Rishi Sunak had called an election. I was completely taken aback. My money had been on October. This morning, there were inflation figures were good and we had a bunch of tweets from the Tories celebrating this. I nearly wrote a blog saying that this almot guarantees an October election, as things are improving and we may all feel more optimistic after a holiday and a few months where things picked up.

So why has he taken this big punt? He has one more month worth of inflation figures. He must expect these to be good. Wages are now rising faster than inflation, again adding to the prospect of a feel good factor, but this has fed through to no one I know. There really is no feel good factor around the country. 

One interesting factor is that it is bang smack in the middle of the Football Euro's tournament. The round of sixteen is a couple of days before. Half of the country may will be glued to the telly and not exactly keen on having people knocking on the door. There will also be a month where the news cycle will see the campaigns competing with the football. As the tournament will not have concluded, there is no real prospect of a bounce if England win. As the polls show Sunak has to change a lot of people's minds, it strikes me as a silly time to do it. Just a personal feeling, but many canvassers as well as voters will not be receptive to knocking on or having their doors knocked on. This reinforces my view that Rishi Sunak does not really understand ordinary people, who were looking forward to the football and then the summer. 

I sat in studio reception for a couple of hours after the gym. The main response of my customers was total apathy. My whatsapp was alight with messages. From the sublime to the ridiculous, with one friend suggesting that Rishi Sunak was quitting for the Chelsea job. 

I am not taking a huge Labour victory for granted. I checked my blog from when Theresa May called an election in 2017. I made a series of predictions. I made a series of predictions, most of which I'd have put my house on but were completely wrong. The campaign changed things completely changed the landscape and that may well happen again.

So what were they and how did I do?

Big Tory majority. - Totally wrong. The Tories lost their majority
Lib Dem gains in pro remain areas 50ish seats - Wishful thinking
Labour reduced to core areas - Againg totally wrong. Labour did far better than expected, largely due to young people, who upset the pollsters model
SNP to maintain stranglehold on Scotland - This was spot on
Greens to poll well - Again wishful thinking
The Borough of Barnet to stay blue - Spot on

Like many, when the election was called I misread the mood of the country. I didn't realise the strong appeal of Corbyn to a failed generation of students and recently left Uni.  I also misread the mood in LibDem and Green target seats. It was a binary choice in England. Corbyn didn't switch soft Labour voters to them.

Given that Theresa May's dream soon became a nightmare, what could turn Keir Starmer's dream into one? I am struggling to see anything, but here are a few possible things.

1. World events causing widespread panic and moving people away from a change agenda.

2. A seismic Labour scandal. The Tories and Labour always have a few up their sleeves. The Tories may decided that a nuclear option may be worth the risk of a Labour tit for tat. The Tories voters are almost immune to any more scandals.

3. The public decides that Labour are not what they seem and Rishi Sunak has hidden talents that none of us have henceforth realised.

No, I can't see it either, but you never know. In truth, I am glad he's called it. I just want to see the back of this awful administration.