Environment Monday - So you don't believe in climate change and global warming because it's snowing

One of the most depressing things for me on Twitter is that people will argue, until they are blue in the face, that black is white, just because they saw a tweet or a dodgy youtube video where someone made a compelling case. Global warming and climate change are perhaps the best examples of this. What I don't quite understand is why so many people with this view end up presenting a show on GB News, but that's another matter. 

A rather strange modern tendency is to apply the rules of religious belief to scientifically proveable fact. Something like belief in God is an intangible thing. It is a belief in something that cannot ever be proven or disproven. Things like global warming are proveable. There is a simple experiment, that can be done in any basic school science lab, that empircally demonstrates how this works (CLICK HERE TO READ HOW IT WORKS). This shows how CO2 in the atmosphere acts as an insulator and raises temperatures.

As for the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, this again can be measured and the insulation effect calculated as it rises. Given the nature of the earths weather systems and all manner of other variables, this is a very imprecise art, the general trend can be plotted and the models refined.

In truth, we've only had accurate weather forecasting since the advents of satellites and supercomputers. It is all a relatively new art. We have temperature measurements in countries such as the UK going back a few hundered years, but not for islands in the Pacific etc. One could reasonably make a case that we lack the data to definitively predict the effect, as we didn't have supercomputers, satellites etc  even 75 years ago, but given the potentially castastrophic effects, is that really wise. There is enough data available to demonstrate that things are changing, CO2 levels are rising, climate is changing in many countries and the world is getting hotter. 

In the UK, the weather is dictated by the direction the wind blows in. If it is coming from the south west, the weather is generally wet and cold in summer and warm in winter. If it is from the North East, the opposite is true. It is hard to see patterns here. If you live in Sub Saharan Africa, then the change is very noticeable. When it comes down to it, lets consider an anolgy. If you are driving your car down country lanes, do you drive slowly, because you have no idea what is around the corner, or do you put your foot down, because you will get to the pub early and there may be nothing around the corner? To my mind, the sensible thing to do is to be cautious and be sensible. Proceed carefully. 

We have enough evidence to indicate caution is wise. 

It's raining in Edgware! - Weather, Climate Change and Global Warming

Sometimes, I have to write blogs, as I am driven to distraction by crass stupidity and willful misinterpretation of proveable facts by people who are either very thick or very malicious. 

Let me start, with a short diversion, to explain why this interests me and why we should all educate ourselves on the subject. About 40 years ago, Gray Ramsey, the drummer in my band excitedly played me a cassette demo of a new track by the legend that is Steve Strange called "It's Raining in Edgware". Steve had bought a sampler and sampled a fart and played a melody with it at the beginning of the track. It was a rather good track and since then I've always associated Edgware with rain (rather like I associate Borehamwood with overripe tomatoes, but that's another story). My Dad was also there. He roared laughing and berated me for not being able to make such amusing music. Later that evening, he took me to one side and said, in his thick Aussie accent "I really like your mate's song. But did you know that Mill Hill is the coldest place in the whole of London?". Dad had been a WWII pilot and part of the qualifications was in meteorology. For bomber pilots such as my Dad, it was literally a matter of life and death to understand the weather. He explained that as Mill Hill was the highest point with a London post code and was the most North Westerly, it was colder, up to four degrees colder than central London. Dad came from Australia, they didn't have weather in Blackall, Queensland. He was born during a drought, a proper drought. There had been no rain for five years, he told me that he first saw rain at the age of four. What had been a dustbowl was now a huge river, called Coopers Creek. The land sprung into life. Plants and strange animals, dormant for years, sprung into life. When we had what we called droughts and hosepipe bans. he'd laugh.

Dad died in 1987, he was an intelligent man. He believed that understanding the patterns of weather was a something that was fundamental to an education. When he first heard of the subject of global warming, he was fascinated. As an Aussie, born in the outback, where the temperatures were always around 40 degrees, he dreamed of such a climate in England. When he studied it, was horrified. He told me that it would not make Britain like the outback of Queensland. He explained that due to the unique position of the UK, the prevailing change was that the UK would simply become wetter and more miserable. This is because the more the earth heats up, the more water will evaporate in the seas. This will form clouds in the Atlantic, that will dump water on Edgware and Mill Hill. Dad felt that the reports he'd read failed to take into account many factors, not least this evaporation. As clouds are white, they actually reflect sunlight, so to some degree would offset the rises. None of the papers he read mentioned this. He did however 100% accept the science and explained it's effects to me in detail. It is a shame that schools seem unable to do the same.

I was lucky. Dad took time to explain everything to me properly, in terms I could understand. What makes me laugh is just how stupid most of the people who tweet about the subject are. They look out of the window, see clouds in July and dismiss the whole matter, stating that as this July is colder than last July, climate change is nonsense. I felt it is high time, that I explained the fact that weather, climate change and global warming are three different things. I am under no illusion that this will be wasted on people, who cannot tell their backside from their elbow, but you have to try and help the poor darlinghs.

So first of all, we need to understand the difference between weather, climate change and global warming.

Weather. This is what we describe the state of the atmosphere at a given time, in a given place. As my Dad explained, Mill Hill is colder thand Edgware. Inverness is colder than London. In Mill Hill, the thing that determis the weather is the direction the wind is blowing. If it is blowing from the South West, off the Atlantic, it is likely to be wet, as that is where clouds are former. If it is blowing from the north, it is likely to be cold. If it is blowing from the South East and up from Africa, it is likely to be warm. If it is coming from the East, in Winter it will be dry and cold and in summer it will be warm.  

In the UK, the most common weather pattern is prevailing winds from the South West. The sea is colder than the land in Summer and warmer in winter. Presently, this is the way the wind is blowing, so that whilst Europe swelters, the air we are getting is colder and damp. Last year, when we were sweltering, we had a large area of high pressure, that is fairly still, with air moving from the warm south east. The biggest factor in determining our winter and summers are the jet streams, huge air currents that determine how the air systems move around the north atlantic. When these move north or south, we get different weather, hot summers such as 1976 and cold winters such as 1962/63.

Weather in the UK is often almost impossible to predict, even with massive computers and hundreds of stations monitoring weather. Knowing exactly where clouds will drop rain is very difficult to know. Sometimes, it rains in Edgware and is sunny in Mill Hill. This year, the Mill Hill Music Festival cancelled an outdoor gig, because rain and Thunderstorms were predicted. They never materialised, although South West London had flash floods. This is what weather is like. If you see someone comparing a random day this year with last year, they simply don't understand that the wind in the UK was blowing in a different direction. 

Climate Change is a different thing all together. This has little to do with day-to-day weather. Climate change means that prevailing temperatures and rain patterns show a marked difference over a longer period of time, which results in physical changes to the landscape. This may mean crops won't grow, animals lose their environment, waterways disappear or flood become common place, when they weren't before. I went to Pune in India in 2015 and the locals told me that the dates for the monsoon, which used to be accurate almost to the day, had completely changed. Areas that, unlike the UK, are not surrounded by water, see this to a far greater extent. As my Dad noted, there are all manner of factors, which we may not understand until we see the effects in action. But the bottom line is that when climate changes and food supplies are affected, that results in huge impact on local populations.

Global Warming is different to climate change, although it is also a driver. This is the thing that the armchair army of tweeters understand least. They see clouds today, when we had glorious sunshine last July and announce that Global Warming is a myth. It is a shame that they don't actually understand what it means. Across the globe, there are tens of thousands of stations that monitor the temperatures, humidity, air pressure and wind levels. Any one of these, on any one day, records the weather. When you take the sum of them all, from across the whole planet, and analyse the changes over a number of years., this tells you whether the planet is warming up or cooling down. Having all of this data, is a relatively new phenominum. We have no idea of global temperatures in Roman or Neolithic times. Does that mean that the modelling we have now is invalid? Of course it doesn't. The job of scientists is to analyse the data, identify trends and postulate theories based on this data. The way science works is that until someone disproves a theory, we tend to accept it if the data supports it. Sadly, what climate change deniers and people who refute Global Warming tend to do is look at very small subsets of data to make their point. So the fact that it's raining in Edgware in July, to them means that the fact that subsistence farmers in sub saharan Africa cannot grow crops due to the changing climate is 'nonsense and a scam'. It may well be that the people who decry climate change and global warming are correct, but if they are, they need to base their theories on complete data sets, rather than a small subset that they can manipulate to suit their rather fatuous arguments.

If you want to know which way the wind is blowing in the UK, check out the Met Office Surface pressure charts. As you can see, the wind is coming off the Atlantic from the North West, which explains the clouds and the slightly lower temperatures. If it was coming from the opposite direction, the temperatures would most probably be 15-20 degrees hotter. 

 

Environment Monday - Everything you need to know about climate change

For many lay people, the issues around climate change can be confusing. We read about global warming, then the UK is hit by "The Beast from the East" and has the coldest winter for years. We read about climate change scientists, but most of us don't understand what they do, who funds them and why they are relevant to our daily lives. Most of us know that 'pollution is bad', we cough when a bus goes by spewing out diesel fumes, or when we get an asthma attack following a day where there is poor air quality, but many of us are unaware that climate change is none of these things, even if these issues are all inter related.

So what do we mean when we talk about climate change and how do we know whether it's real?

Climate change, is the effect on temperatures caused by increasing levels of greenhouse gasses.
The science is very simple. When we burn fossil fuels, we release carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. CO2 is a better insulator than than oxygen, so as the level of CO2 rises, the atmosphere retains heat better than it did previously. Different materials all have different properties when it comes to retaining heat. For example, metal loses heat far more quickly than wood. As the CO2 level rises, the heat from the Sun's energy is retained and temperatures go up.

What complicates the issue is that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere goes up and dow naturally. We don't fully understand the process, that drives this, but its most likely down to the health of the ecosystem. Volcano's and the temperature of the Sun will clearly have some effect (The sun heats up and cools down periodically).

What we do know is that plants remove CO2 from the atmosphere and use the carbon to build structures, such as leaves, branches, stalks. These then die, decay and form peat, coal, oil etc. When humans  dig them up and burn them, we release the carbon back into the atmosphere as CO2. There is a  government website that explains the changing CO2 levels of this in detail, if you are interested. It supplied these two graphs

The changes are stark and worrying. As climate changes, the eco system changes and habitats become unable to sustain the established life forms, as any changes to delicate balances disrupt the way species interact. As temperatures rise, soil dries out quicker, meaning that plants with shallow roots etc start to struggle. It is far more complex than this, but that is a small picture of some of the reasons why it matters.

What are the different viewpoints on Climate change

There are four main viewpoints.

1. People who don't care.
Sadly, it seems that the vast majority of the population don't care about climate change. For many, it doesn't seem to affect them so they are not bothered. Like many things, by the time it affects you, it is too late. Think of cancer as an analogy (something I know a bit about). If you catch it and deal with it early, before it affects you, then you can fix it. It may not be pleasant, but you can stop it killing you. If you ignore the warning signs, then sadly you might not be able to take the required action in time.

2. People who don't know.
For some, it is all too confusing. So much of it seems contradictory, especially when the President of the USA says it's all nonsense and we should ignore the experts. Surely he's the president he must know? I have sympathy with anyone who is confused. I was before I researched the matter. What I read convinced me that we must err on the side of caution. Why?  Again, if I can use a cancer analogy. When I was diagnosed in 2011 with Prostate cancer, I followed, the advice of my doctor, to go onto a programme of active surveillance. This meant regular biposies and scans. A friend, who is into alternative medicine, told me that the medical profession were lying to the public about cancer and that it could be cured simply by lifestyle changes. He'd seen videos on the internet and was convinced. I religiously watched all of these. Most seemed to actually be selling food supplements. Some of it was sense. Eventually I settled on what seemed to be sensible lifestyle changes. In 2014, my friend was telling me that the fact that it hadn't developed was down to the changes. In 2015, the cancer became more aggressive. Then it was all the fault of the dodgy doctors and me not taking more supplements. Much as I love my friends, I would prefer to trust qualified doctors, who know what they are talking about. That is why I trust climate change scientists, rather than blokes in pubs and dodgy internet videos, peddling conspiracy theories. Even the big oil companies such as BP recognise the need for change, which is why BP have a growing renewables subsidiary BP acknowledge the need to tackle climate change. They would not be doing this if there wasn't hard scientific evidence.

3. Large vested interests defending fossil fuel industries.
Petrol, Gas, Oil and Shale are big business. The companies operating in these sectors have huge investments in the business. The CEO's of these companies are employed to defend the financial issues of the shareholders in the companies. Whilst some like BP acknowledge the need for change, there is a history of corporate dragging of feet. Companies fund all manner of studies and research, in the hope that they can find ways to justify a business as usual approach to fossil fuel production. Change hurts profits, so is not something they will do unless they have to. Climate change sceptics have often been funded by such organisations. This is not because they doubt the science, but because they take the commercial viewpoint that if they can delay changing their ways for a few years it will be good for the balance sheet. Some are looking for magic bullets to fix the problem, such as carbon capture schemes or looking for other sectors of the economy to clobber.  This is pretty normal capitalist corporate behaviour. Sadly not everyone realises that science is being manipulated simply to improve the balance sheets of large corporations. Have a look at this list of climate change deniers. Sadly it seems many are mislead by these people. That is why we need to set the record straight.

4. People who recognise the need for change.
Those of us who recognise the need for change need to to take action now. We have science on our side and we have reason on our side. One of the arguments of the vested interest is that the case is not proven. Going back to my cancer analogy and my friend who was a cancer treatment sceptic stated that I should not trust the specialist. I ignored his advice. The treatment was not pleasant, but four years later, I am in a good place. I don't know how my cancer would have progressed if I'd ignored my doctors and listened to the bloke in the pub. What I do know is that when it came down to it, I wasn't prepared to risk my life on the word of a bloke in the pub who'd watched a video on the internet. I had a responsibility to myself and my family to undergo some fairly unpleasant treatment. It is the same with climate change. We can't be 100% sure exactly what will happen, but we have a small window to make a big difference. We have a responsibility to ourselves and our children to be cautious and make changes.

You may say "what difference can I make?". There are many things you can do. I started this series to outline many of them. If you enjoyed this article, read the rest in the series. But today, there is only one thing I would ask you to do. It might not be easy, but please try. If you read this article and think it makes sense and you know someone who isn't really sure what Climate change is all about, ping this onto their Facebook page or email it to them. Ask them to read it and ask them what they think of what I had to say. If they ask you a question you can't answer by all means ping me an email. I will do my best to get you an answer. If I get a few meaty questions, then I may put them into a blog. If you are a climate change sceptic, by all means email me, with the science that supports your arguments. It is only by discussing such matters in a sane and rational manner that we can hope to fix the problems of the world. And if you don't want to fix the problems facing the world, please don't email me, as we really have nothing in common.

Proof that God has got a sense of humour

The big story in the world today is the Copenhagen summit which is aiming to combat global warning. The big story in London is Snow !!! What more proof do you need that God has a sense of humour, but what message is he sending?

Having spent a winter in Scandinavia in 1981/2 I thought this was a rather stupid place to hold a summit about global warming. It's only human nature for the delegates to wake up this morning, look out of the window and think "This is a load of cobblers".

 I've no idea how they choose these venues, but yesterday I printed a guest blog from Fr Jim Fanning who detailed the effects of man made climate change. They should have held the conference somewhere in the midst of a man made disaster so the delegates could actually see some evidence of whats going on.

Weather for Copenhagen, Denmark  - Add to iGoogle

-3°C | °F Current: Light snow Wind: NE at 21 mph Humidity: 86% Fri 0°C | -4°C Sat -1°C | -6°C Sun -1°C | -6°C Mon 1°C | -2°C