Euro Election commentary - Lib Dems win in Barnet

Last night, the Euro election count was finally held and the results announced. There are many conclusions to be drawn from the results. Lets us start locally

Barnet Analysis

This was a stunning result for the local Liberal Democrats. The message could not be clearer. Barnet is staunchly remain and the Lib Dems position was by far the most popular choice.

I did some analysis of the figures for the major parties. Only 20% of Barnet voters went for parties committed to Brexit.

Party		Remain	Leave	Unclear	Total
Change UK – The Independent Group	7,491	7,491
Conservative and Unionist Party	13,868			13,868
Green Party	9,761	9,761
Labour Party	15,980			15,980
Liberal Democrats	27,423	27,423
The Brexit Party	17,089		17,089
UK Independence Party (UKIP)	1,624		1,624
		44,675	18,713	29,848	93,236
	Percentage	47.91604	20.07057	32.01339

The Lib Dems were the only party that put any real effort into the campaign in Barnet. Leafletting, canvassing and social media campaigns were run to ensure that voters knew that the party were taking the matter seriously and that if you wanted a party committed to remain to represent you, then locally the Lib Dems were the sensible choice. The turnout in Barnet was a very respectable 42.5%. This is historically high for a Euro election in Barnet. Last year at the Council election, the turnout was almost the same at 43.7%.

This is a stunning result for the Lib Dems. To come from a distant 3rd locally last year, with no councillors at all, to topping the poll is a feat of some note. But I would caution all my friends in the Lib Dems to not get too carried away. I spoke to thousands of both Labour and Tory voters during the course of the campaign, who wanted to send their own party a message. Would these voters stay with the Lib Dems for council or a general election? At the last Euro elections UKIP topped the pile, only to get a single MP in the general election the following year. The Lib Dems in Barnet now have a platform and it is up to them to make the case. In 2014, the Lib Dems got 4418 votes. They put no effort into the campaign and got the result this deserved. Times have changed and from being seen as peripheral and directionless to being well organised and with a clear message. It is amazing what hard work and a focused message can do for you at the ballot box. Any analysis should also take note of the virtual media blackout on covering the Lib Dems since the 2015 general election. This result was purely down to grass roots boots pounding the streets to get the message out.

As to Labour and the Tories, there are a few rather interesting conclusions. They ran no campaign and did no work. They had nothing to say. So it is clear that there are 13,868 Tories and 15,890 Labour party supporters who would vote for a donkey, so long as it had the right colour rosette. Tribalism is not dead in Barnet, but it is on life support. It is worth noting that the Tories won in 2014 in Barnet. They got 32,234 votes so to lose around 60% of your vote is appalling. In 2014, David Cameron was leading the Tories and a year later would win an outright victory. That seems like a very long time ago. I knew the Tories in Barnet would retain their core vote. The one huge advantage they have is that they have got their core signed up for postal votes. I expected a Farage surge in Barnet with Tory voters, but knew from bitter experience that a lot of people who may be persuaded cast their votes early. In last years Council elections, many Tories were telling us that they would have voted Lib Dem having spoken to us, but they'd already posted their vote in. By my calculations from canvassing, I estimated that the Tories retained around 3,000 votes that would have switched.   Labour came second with 28,774. They lost nearly 50% of their vote. Ed Miliband was leader who got trounced in 2015. I doubt many in 2014 would have thought Labour could have performed much worse. Whatever you may think of Jeremy Corbyn, the only conclusion is that whilst he has a firm control on the levers of power of the Labour party, this is not working for Barnet Labour.

As to Change UK and UKIP? Both have demonstrated that the only purpose they have is to split the vote of  the cause they seek to further. Both should call it a day and join the larger groups that clearly do a better job of making the point they want to push. When UKIP got into bed with Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (AKA Tommy Robinson) they sent the message out that they had departed the mainstream. As for Change UK. They are the love island party of British politics. We all watch them when there is nothing else on that is more interesting, but we know they are a passing fancy.

The Greens pose a real dilemma. In Barnet, they made little impact. This was, if nothing else, down to an invisible campaign. The Greens do well when they campaign hard and have strong local candidates. They got 7,362 votes in the 2014 Euro's (on a lower turnout). Like the Tories and Labour in Barnet, they  have a core vote that turn out, but hasn't really moved.

And finally, the Brexit Party.  In the 2014 Euro elections, UKIP got 14,039 votes. The Brexit party added around 3,000 votes to this to finish second (they finished third locally last time). The Brexit party doesn't actually exist on the ground in Barnet. I saw no canvassers, leafletters etc. I saw no effort. But they had a huge advantage over the smaller parties. The BBC have made Nigel Farage the go to guy for hard Brexit. Whilst Lib Dems were knocking on doors in Barnet, Farage was on people's tellies. Not only that but papers like The Sun, The Mail and The Express have spent the last 20 years promoting him. Farage gets no real scrutiny from these fan rags. When he appears on TV, he polarises people. He is the face of Brexit and like the Lib Dems, his message was clear. I am not a conspiracy theorist. I believe the BBC to be broadly neutral and I believe that Farage know how to use this to his advantage. He laps up the coverage and as soon as he gets asked an awkward question he cries "BIAS". This plays well with his core, who believe that there is a massive conspiracy. In Barnet, the hard work put in by the Lib Dems locally meant that this narrative was opposed in a way it wasn't elsewhere in the country. My personal issue with Farage was that his party has no manifesto and no policy. I also believe that his party fails to recognise the risks to the smaller countries of Europe from an EU dominated by Germany and France. Interestingly, the EU Parliament now has a large block of people who agree with Farage from all over Europe. If he was sensible, he'd work with these people to try and transform the EU from within to something more of his liking, that protected our allies. What sickens me about the Farage appropriation of WWII imagery is the way that the contribution of Czechs, Pole's etc flying in the RAF during the battle of Britain is forgotten. He would happily throw our historic allies to the wolves.

National Analysis.

It has to be said that Barnet is not typical of the UK in general. In most places, the Brexit party topped the polls. They are crowing about a stunning win. I can't comment on the campaigns elsewhere in the country. What I can say is that if there weren't strong local campaigns, then the TV and media exposure of Farage is clearly a massive advantage for him. But even with all of this, the combined votes of the parties with a clear remain agenda (Lib Dems, Greens, Change UK, SNP and Plaid Cymru) had a clear lead on the #Brexit parties (UKIP & Brexit).

The national performance of the Tories at 8.4% supports my theory that in Barnet they benefited from early postal votes. Labour did marginally better in Barnet than nationally, but I imagine they will take scant comfort from that.

It is clear to me that the Lib Dems, Greens and Change UK  made a monumental error in not uniting under a Remain banner for these elections. They should have had alternate picks on lists and pooled campaigning resources, whilst maintaining separate identities. They should have published a full set of principles re Brexit and stated that for this election in these unusual circumstances, a united front was essential. Had this been done, the headlines would have been very different.

A personal statement

I have worked extremely hard since the Euro elections were confirmed. I've been leafleting, canvassing, telling and writing blogs etc. I believe that the results in Barnet have justified the effort that myself and my friends in the local Lib Dems have expended. Whatever else happens, we did everything we could to make a difference. If you voted for the Lib Dems locally, may I personally thank you. If you voted for another remain supporting party, may I implore you to keep supporting the cause and to work to pull our divided vote together. If you voted Labour or Tory, can I ask you to think long and hard as to what you really want to happen with regards to Brexit. Your parties have failed the UK with a head in the sand strategy and you got what you deserved. To all of my friends, neighbours and everyone else who voted for the #Brexit Party or UKIP. We are all in this together, whether we agree or disagree. There has been too much bile and nastiness on both sides. You are Londoner and a British citizen (or EU possibly). Both sides have to work harder than ever to ensure that our City, our Country and our children get the future they deserve. This is best achieved if we can find a way to work around our deep divide.

And to all. The country is split. A house divided is a house that will fall. We need to pull together somehow.