Something very strange is going on in the World today. We have a war between Russia and Ukraine. We have a terrible conflict between Hamas and Israel, where tens of thousands have died and despite a ceasefire, it is almost impossible to imagine a scenario where there will be a fair, just and lasting peace deal. You would think that a new President, taking over the mantle of Leader of The Free World, would be looking at this situation and thinking "How can I make sure all of my allies are lined up behind me, so we can present a United front and ensure maximum leverage on those parties that we need to force to the negotiating table". That is not how Donald Trump thinks. His first major foreign policy moves are not in these regions. He has targetted neighbours and allies, Canada and Mexico with trade sanctions. The most bizarre aspect of this, is that the pretext is to stop the cross border trade in Fentanyl (a super strong opiate). He has also informed Denmark that he wants them to hand over Greenland to the USA, starting a row with a small country on a different comntinent that has, up to now always been a staunch ally. He has told the EU, an organisation I would have assumed he'd want onside against Russia, that he is planning sanctions against them. China, not an ally, but the one country with some sort of leverage against Russia is also in his sights.
Now the obvious observation is that he is cracking the whip to show both foes and allies who is the boss. He is laying down his cards to get massive trade concessions. He is acting like a property speculator, ruthlessly trying to put together a mega deal, and using every trick in the book to maximise his profits. That was my assumption when I first started to hear of these proclamations. Then I thought about it and analysed what he is doing and saying. He has said that he wants both Greenland and Canada to become part of the USA. He's not talking about doing nice trade deals that are a bit better for America, he's talking about a full on land grab. Western Democracies have made the mistake in the past of misreading the territorial ambitions of despots. Wars rarely start with armies marching across borders. They start with a period of economic attacks on the enemy, ever increasing claims a false flags, negotitations that are designed to fail and when all of these have set up a permissive environment, the troops walk in.
When I first heard about the link between Fentanyl and the sanctions I was completely baffled, but Trump is portraying this as a threat to Americans that needs to be dealt with. The genie is out of the bottle. He has to do something that demonstrated that his policy is working or he will look like a fool. If he'd said that Canada and Mexico simply had bad trade deals, that would be a completely different thing. He hasn't. The USA has the most robust economy on the planet, Mexico and Canada combined do not have the GDP of California, let alone the USA. The concept that these economies are a threat to the USA is ridiculous, so Trump has chosen drugs. There is no doubt that Fentanyl is killing a huge number of Americans. Nearly 90,000 died of drug overdoses in 2024. If this many people were killed in an atatck by a hostile power, it would be a devastating act of war. Trump playing this card against Canada and Mexico is one that is hard to see as anything other than the start of a very hostile campaign against his neighbours. The sad truth, one which Trump ignores, is that it is the failure of US policies that has caused the crisis, but one that suits an expansionist agenda.
It is highy unlikely that trade tariffs will disrupt the movement of narcotics across the borders of the USA and I don't believe that this is what Trump is looking for. I believe that his goal is to enshrine himself in history as the greatest ever US President and I am coming around to the idea that he believes his lasting legacy will be to expand the territory of the United States of America. So what does he really want? Lets start with Mexico. I don't believe that Trump wants to conquer Mexico. If the country becomes the 51st State, then every Mexican could move to wherever they wanted in the USA, which sort of defeats the policies he's been espousing for years. Far more likely however would be a limited operation to carve out a buffer area between the USA and Mexico. Just suppose that between the current US border and Mexico, there was a 'sterile corridor' 20 miles deep, then it would be a hell of a lot more difficult to climb over fences or tunnel under them. Mexico couldn't hope to win a war against the USA, something Trump knows. Maybe he could bully them into such an idea or maybe he could just send the army in to do it and tell Mexico that if they shoot at his troops, he'll send a full scale invasion. Would Mexico risk a retaliation? The one thing we can all be 100% sure of is that Trump doesn't give a stuff for Mexican sensibilities.
Then there is Canada. Trump has spoken openly about Canada becoming the 51st State. The USA and Canada are democracies. I really can't see how Trump could compel Canada to join the Union if they didn't want to. If the USA was set on invading Canada, they clearly could with not too much of a problem, but sooner or later, Canadians would have to vote to ratify the union and that might prove rather embarrassing all round. I'd be surprised if bullying Canada to do anything would prove to be anything other than very counter productive. But who knows the mind of Donald Trump. Canada is a rich country with huge mineral wealth, which Trump clearly feels is ripe for picking. His property developer mentality will surely not take much convincing that a bit of bullying, a few threats and some sort of nice carrot to go with the stick, might get him what he wants.
As for Greenland, again there would be no obstacle to the USA if he just chose to annexe it. Denmark is clearly not in a position to defend itself. I can see no reason for Trump to raise this issue if he isn't serious. Given that Denmark is a member of NATO and the EU, any annexation would surely spell the end of NATO and a huge stand off with the EU.
In George Orwell's 1984, there were three great political blocks. Oceana, Eurasia and East Asia, all constantly shifting alliances, all in a constant state of war, but mostly conducted as skirmishes in remote places. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that Trumps shenanigans will push the EU closer to China. It strikes me that if China play their cards right then they can be the big winners of the Trump era. The US sanctions will make them keen to open up new markets and do new trade deals to fill the gaps. The US seems intent on upsetting its friends, so this opens up possibilities for a regime that can take the long term view. By the time the US has a president who is interested in engaging with the outside world as friends and partners, the damage will be done. It is not a given that the next President will be any more international in their thinking than Trump.
I've long been of the belief that the third World War will not be fought with guns. Nuclear weapons make the concept of a large scale conventional war ridiculous. Putin has found that having half the worlds stockpile of nukes has done him no good at all in Ukraine. Israel has seemingly had a major victory over it's main Geopolitical adversary, Iran, without a single boot setting foot in Iranian territory. Blowing your enemies to bits with dodgy pagers and mobile phones is a very 21st century way of doing war. I suspect that before the end of the century, we'll see a country lose it's sovereignty purley as a result of hacking of it's computers, banking systems, transport systems and finance systems. If you woke up one day and your computers didn't work, all your cash was gone, there were no trains, buses or planes and no TV or Radio, you might find yourself under a foreign juresdiction without even realising and without a bullet being fired. Information will be the new weapon.
Which brings us to today, 3rd February 2025. I believe that Donald Trump has started this war. I believe it will escalate over the next few years. It will cost us all a lot of money and make a lot of things we currently take for granted a lot more difficult. I don't think too many bullets will be fired, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if a few maps need redrafting in the not too distant future.
Oh yeah, one thing I forgot to mention. The US economy has always done very well when there is a war and I am sure that Trumps rich backers are all too happy to see the benefits of what is going on.
Welcome to the new world!
No comments:
Post a Comment