My view is that all world leaders should acquaint themselves with history. Understanding the lessons of the past can only help leaders to make better decisions. I watched a fascinating documentary yesterday about WW2 and Great Britain for the period 1939 to the Nazi invasion of the USSR. For much of this period, the UK stood alone, our allies were vanquished. After Dunkirk, Hitler and his generals (not his Navy interestingly) believed that Great Britain was defeated. They believed that Churchill would sue for peace, or even better for Hitler, his ragime would topple and a new government and a new monarch, sympathetic to Germany would emerge. When Churchill made it clear that Britian would fight on alone, defying just about every rationale of warfare, Hitler ordered the preparataion of "Operation Sealion", a seaborn invasion of the UK.
To Hitlers surprise, his top Admiral Doenitz was less enthusiastic than the army generals. He pointed out that without complete air superiority and the destruction of the Royal Navy, his army may be sunk crossing the channel. Hitler turned to his airforce chief Herman Goering, who declared that he would "sweep the RAF from the skies in six weeks". Goering produced intelligence assessments showing that the RAF had been massively weakened during the Battle of France and short air campaign would destroy airfields, factories, and planes. The assessment was that they could shoot down Spitfires and Hurricanes far quicker than Britain could build them and the RAF would run out of trained pilots. There was also an assumption that the British people were weak and decadent and would kick Churchill out when the bombs started dropping.
So Germany launched the Battle of Britain. The problem was that the German assessments of the RAF and the production capacity of Great Britain was wrong. Pilots made their way from all over the world to fight fascism. Lord Beaverbrook reformed production. Britain was producing more fighters than Germany, The British public were not cowed, in fact they were spurred to loathe the Nazi's even more.
I am no historian, but the one thing that Britain showed was that the only way you can win is to hang in and not give up. As the documentary went on, the parallels and differences with the current Trump war on Iran became clear. Both the Battle of Britain and the Iran war are air wars. The instigators are given to making bold claims about how the enemy is defeated, failing to realise that no one on the enemy side is listening. Just as Goering told Hitler that the RAF was running out of planes, Trump boasts that Irans military has been destroyed. In both cases, this is demonstrably untrue. If it was true, then the Straits of Hormuz would be open. There can be no doubt that the Iranian people are suffering, it must be hellish. I doubt any readers of this blog would like to live in a country run by a strict Islamic Revolutionary Guard. But whilst the Mullahs have been gravely damaged, their government and the structures are still functioning. It is clear that they still can fire rockets and drones at whoever they want.
The Iranian strategy is not too dissimilar to that of Churchill. Hang on in there and wait for the wind toc change. The Iranians suffered a long, bloody war that lasted from 1980 to 1988, with the US supporting Saddam Hussein. They know that in eight years time they will have seen two US elections. Although Trump looms large, the US constitution means he will not be President for ever. He is also an elderly man. Iran must be calculating that sooner or later, they will have a different leader to deal with. From their persepective, all they need to do is hang on in there.
And when the wind changes in the USA, for whatever reason, should the Iranian regime survive, they will be stronger not weaker. Now of course, this analysis takes no account of Israel, who will no doubt continue to assassinate every Iranian leader they can find, until they decide there is one they can deal with.
But take a step back. Who was the biggest beneficiary of the period 1939-41. Ultimately it was the USA, who weren't involved. Their economy boomed. Prior to the war, they'd seen Britain as a competetor globally, albiet a friendly benign one, with the British Empire fuelling the nations wealth. By 1941, the UK was bankrupt. I look to the east and see China as the big beneficiary. As the USA tears up alliances, the Chinese look to many nations to be a stable and trustworthy partner. They need do nothing. I started this blog eighteen years ago. If someone had told me how the post 2008 period would pan out, I'd have thought them mad. This is just the latest chapter in a story of global self abuse by the human race. It is thorughly depressing.
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