It has got to the stage where I wake up in the morning and don't want to put the radio on, or look at the newspapers. I used to be an avid watcher of news channels, but I have almost stopped watching them. The reason? I simply do not want to acknowledge the fact that the most powerful country on the planet is in the grip of someone who appears to me to be a narcissitic psychopath. This is not a new phenomenum, the world has seen such people from the days of Caligula in the Roman Empire, but in this day and age, not only are we painfully aware of it, he has the largest stockpile of nuclear missiles on the planet. It is patently clear that his kidnapping of the President of Venezuala was a breach of international law. From what I know of Maduro, he is a terrible man and he is no loss to Venezuala, but that does not make it OK.
I recall my Dad telling me that when he was shot down during WW2 over Romania, he was well treated by the Germans and the Romanians. The reason? They knew Great Britain respected international law and the Geneva convention. At the end of the war, as it was clear that Germany was collapsing, those who could made their way to surrender to British forces. They knew that they would be dealt with in a legal and decent way. They were terrified of the Soviet army, they knew the French forces had no sympathy for them, after years of occupation and atrocities. They were suspicious of the American forces, but they knew the British would treat them decently. When the Nuremburg trials took place, they did so under British law. There was a good reason for this. It was deemed imperative that it was seen that justice was done. The Allies all recognised that the only way to have peace in Europe was to ensure that German war criminals were tried fairly and given proper recourse to legal process. Stalin had wanted to summarily execute 50,000 top Nazi's, but Churchill persuaded him that ultimately this would not serve the interests of peace in Europe. The Americans recognised that the German people saw British law as just and honest. The United Nations was set up with the aim of ensuring that International Law was respected.
This was only really possible because the allies, epecially Great Britain and the USA recognised the need for a system whereby people who broke international law and disregarded treaties could be held to account. No sane person can pretend that the UN is perfect. However the alternative to it is terrifying and that seems to be the road Donald Trump is taking us down. After two election victories and five years in power, Trump has concluded that he can do whatever he pleases and there is nothing anyone can do about it. In some ways, it is a miracle that it took him so long for the penny to drop.
What really shocked me most was reading that Trump had stated that he intended for US Oil companies to run the Venezualan oil industry, after grabbing Maduro. It is a naked grab of a soveriegn countries assets. There was not even the fig leaf of pretence that the USA would oversee free and fair elections in Venezuala, something that might have put some veneer of respectability on what they had done.
The USA is a country that operates under the rule of law. I do wonder what will happen if the courts dismiss all charges against Maduro? I am not a lawyer and have no idea of the legal process Maduro faces, but I genuinely believe the US legal system's credibility is at stake and if they are not seen to do things by the book, it will cause major damage to the country. Dictators such as Hitler and Stalin oversaw rigged show trials to send opponents to the gallows (or worse),thinking it showed them to be strongmen. It actually had the opposite effect, exposing them to the the world for what they are. I simply can't see American lawyers wanting to take part in such shenanigans. It may well be that Maduro has broken US law and will be found guilty by a fair legal process, but the rest of the world will still be deeply distrustful of the process.
You may think that none of this matters and that the USA is so powerful that it can do as it likes, where it likes and when it likes. In the short term, this appears to be true, but we may well start to see tectonic change in global alliances. It is clear to me that China will see this as a massive opportunity. That could play out in several ways. They could use it as a fig leaf for a land grab of Taiwan. My view is that they are not foolish and would not wish to be seen as being "worse than Trump", as such a move would undoubtedly be a bloody business. China plays a long game and I have no dounbt that their diplomats are looking at ways to strengthen relations with democratic countries appalled by what is a breach of international rules/ I doubt too many nations will come out and say it, many will be asking themselves whether Trump is really a reliable security partner, and whether other avenues should be persued. I can't see China missing such an open goal. Expect a few Panda's to be gifted to European zoo's.
I am intrigued by how India will perceive this whole business as well. I genuinely don't believe that the West understands the strength of India. I can see a situation where the next century is one where India becomes the dominant world power. I suspect that Trump has hastened that process and opened doors for India's ambitions.
Then there is Russia. If I was Putin, I would be extremely worried about what has happened. It has removed a client and trading partner. It has demonstrated that Trump is serious about grabbing assets. This will not be lost on Putin who was already wary of US ambitions in Ukraine. It has been said that it will embolden Putin and tempt him to try such a grab against Zelenskyy. I doubt it, if this was possible, I am sure that Putin would already have done it. If I was Putin I'd be looking over my shoulder at whether China might be tempted to cool relations, as there are opportunities elsewhere that Russia will be a long term impediment to.
Then there is the EU. Greenland, which is part of Denmark is on Trumps wish list. Whereas before most people doubted the seriousness of this proposal, I suspect a lot of EU strategists are having very sleepless nights. What would the EU and NATO do if Trump invaded Greenland. There is zero prospect of a military response. Trmp will simply laugh at diplomatic overtures. I cannot possibly see Nato surviving such a situation. Europe, with Putin on its eastern wing, may have some very difficult decisions to make. This is not lost on both China and India.
Then there is the UK. Our "Independent Nuclear Deterrent" is under Trumps lock and keys. I suspect that Nato might end up being a rump of English speaking nations, which only endures because it would be a bit embarrassing for everyone to walk out. Sir Keir Starmer is a lawyer. He has nowhere to hide on the question of international law. What he should do is speak the truth to power. The only problem is that he is clearly terrified of Donald Trump. I don't suppose there is any fate worse than spending your life wanting to become Prime Minister, only to find yourself in the job at a time where your most powerful ally is run by a man who will ruin your reputation for ever and there is nothing you can do. Blair was faced with the same choice with Bush and Iraq and Starmer knows that Blair is forever damaged as the man who lied to Parliament and set Iraq on fire. Starmer has no easy choice because we are a very small and isolated country in a very hostile world.
And the man who fancies himself as the next Prime Minister? It is clear he knows the truth, but simply cannot resist brown nosing Trump. It is no surprise that he thinks breaking international law may be a good thing. I suspect that like many things, Farage hasn't really thought it through.
Although this is a pretty long blog (and one that means I won't be going to the USA until Mr Trump is no longer King of the World), I can sum it up in one sentence. In short, it is clear to me that Donald Trump is a danger to the planet and the sooner we all stop pretending he isn't, the better.
