As regular readers of the blog will know, in September I quit the Labour party and joined the Lib Dems. I thought I'd better find out a bit more about the party, so I took myself up to Birmingham to the Party conference. I've never been to any party conference before, so it was a new experience. Now I'm not going to bore you silly with my musings on the experience, but I will tell you something rather important. On Saturday, I suddenly had a terrible vision of the future. Since then I've been filled with a real sense of dread. Why, you may ask? Well I was sitting in the conference hall listening to Lib Dem Shadow Chancellor, Vince Cable. As I listened to his analysis of what needed doing, I was suddenly struck by the horrors. I hadn't really given much thought to the economic situation in the country. Sure, I know there are problems, but this was the very first time I'd heard them spelled out in detail in terms I understood.
Now everyone knows that Cable is probably the only politician who's had a good credit crunch, but having listened to his speech, I understood why. Due to the timing of the election, the two main parties and their lackies in the press are selling us a big porkie. Unless you've sat and listened to a speech such as Vince Cables, you probably don't realise. You know how in cartoons, dogs run off the edge of a cliff and don't realise. Their legs keep going, then they stop, look around and drop like a stone. With regards to the economy, the British public are like the doggie with the legs still running, but with fresh air below us.
Whoever gets in, I suspect that shortly after the election, we'll get an emergency "austerity" budget. The big question is who will be setting it. The odds are on George Osborne. Sadly Mr Osborne has shown no evidence whatsoever that he actually has what it takes to do the job. Every time he's been asked to make a judgement call, he's got it wrong. As to Alisdair Darling? It is fair to say that he's not done a terrible job with a very poor hand. The trouble is that he's weak and is likely to be replaced if he pushes for sensible measures, not to Gordon Browns liking. As Brown got us into the mess with his management of the economy, can we have any real confidence that the reforms necessary to fix the economy will be made? I doubt it. The only person who anyone really thinks knows what needs to be done, the only person who has called it right all the way down the line is Vince Cable.Whether you are a Tory, Labour or a Monster raving looney, if you've followed what's happened in the credit crunch, if you are honest, you will know that Vince Cable is the guy who's called it right. My disturbing vision of the future? Osborne or Darling announcing their austerity budget on May 7th (or shortly thereafter), whilst Vince Cable gives a withering analysis of why it's going to sink the economy. I doubt anything I write in this blog will change this awful fact.
5 comments:
Rog
Whilst it is true that Vince Cable is respected across the whole political spectrum, he would not make the best chancellor. The best qualified person for the job of leading the country away from the brink of economic collapse is Ken Clarke. He has the stature and experience and, most importantly, the trust and confidence of the City.
Most Conservatives know that George Osborne simply isn’t up to the job - even if they are reluctant to say so publicly. But the fact that David Cameron hasn’t sacked him will be perceived by many voters not as an act of loyalty to his friend, but as an act of weakness. These are unprecedented times and whilst Ken is a bit of a lefty of European matters, he would be able to deliver the economic recovery which is so desperately needed.
David,
You are correct to observe that Ken Clarke would have credibility as a chancellor that Osborne hasn't. Like many issues with the Tories, Camerons judgement in persisting with Osborne will sadly be his undoing. Ultimately you need to appoint people who are up to the job. It seems that this is the hardest thing to do.
I don't accept that Clarke would do a better job than Cable as chancellor, but unless Vince Cable ever gets the job, we'll not be able to judge their relative merits. I do accept that if Clarke was in post, the question of credibility wouldn't arise.
@Rog, who can resist the 'bank manager' reassuring manner of Vince Cable? However that just can't hide the fact that he has just been wrong too many times. Here, from his interview with the Telegraph,
"He thought the Government should let the bank go to the wall. But when Mr Brown decided to underwrite the Rock, he switched tactics and began calling for nationalisation."
Not much in the way of consistency or foresight there? And what about the Mansion Tax speech last year that would have seen so many Mill Hill pensioners landed with a huge bill? And that's without mentioning the 'savage cuts' speech by closeted Conservative, Nick Clegg, which has now transformed itself to 'no cuts till 2012'.
Vince Cable does a great line in a nice bumbling professor of the nation but his policies can't add up as long at the Liberal Democrats are stuffed to the hilt with soft left Labour loving activists.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/03/vince-wants-it-both-ways.html says it all
Dan,
Are you seriously saying that George Osborne is more credible than Vince Cable?
If we allow such a bumbling incompetent as Osborne to run the economy, pensioners will be faced with far worse than a mansion tax.
As to Iain Dale, whatever he is or isn't I a) Don't think he's an economic genius or b) Anything less than an extremely biased and one sided Tory wannabe.
The reason Vince Cable is respected is because he's called things correctly. Anyone who heard his speech on Saturday would know he's anything other than "bumbling". If you dismiss Cable on the basis of your suspicion of "Soft Left Lib Dem activists" you are making a dreadful mistake. I don't agree with much of Ken Clarkes politics, but I accept he has credibility and a track record. You'd do well to take the same view with Cable, or you might find you start to develop your own "credibility gap".
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