Brian Coleman Special - The Spin Doctor in Action

When the news Brian Coleman had appointed a spin doctor broke last week, I allowed myself a sly chuckle. What on earth could any spin doctor prescribe to make Brian Coleman seem a reasonable choice to the voters of Barnet? Silly me. I had asked the completely wrong question. Now sadly Brian hasn't asked me over to discuss what he's being told to do or say, or what his spin doctors plan is, but it is becoming pretty clear, just from watching what is happening. Telling Brian Coleman to behave himself is pretty much like me telling my dog not to lick her backside. If I give her a treat she won't lick her bum until she's finished guzzling it, but she doesn't even understand what I'm saying. So any spin doctor working for Brian has to approach the problem from a different angle. Maybe a really good spin doctor could make all his opponents seem equally, or preferably even more awful. Anyone who studied Boris Johnsons campaign, as I did for the 2008 Mayoral election will know that Boris had a team of happy helpers who scoured the local papers leaving nice comments about Boris and horrid ones about Ken. These were all anonymous, I used to exchange banter with them across the websites of various publications. Oh what fun we had.

Now lucky old Boris wasn't the only Tory with a team of web based, anonymous admirers. Finchley MP, Mike Freer has had a very small band of anonymous followers who also have left comments on the local paper for the last few years. Strangely, although they find Mike fascinating they seem to ignore all other topics. Until this week.  On a Hendon Times story about Andrew Dismore and Ken Livingstone, guess who has popped up?
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narthlandan, Barnet says...
10:10am Wed 4 May 11

Yes, I remember how wonderful it was when Ken stuck up council tax year after year and increased bus/tube fares. Really listened to the people.

 

AmandaB, Hendon says...
12:28pm Wed 4 May 11

Wow Ken in North London... he forgot where it was last time!

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It strikes me that what has happened is not so much that Brian Coleman has appointed a spin doctor (who'd want that on their CV?) as Boris has realised that Coleman will cost him votes big time in Barnet and Camden, therefore he's lent Coleman a spin doctor to do a bit of damage limitation. I suspect if it was as simple as Coleman getting the boot at the election, Boris would be quite pleased to see the back of him, but every vote Brian Coleman costs the Tories, is a vote less for Boris. If Andrew Dismore runs a strong campaign and Tory voters turn away from Coleman, it could cost Boris the race, if things get tight.

Now we all know that politics is a dirty game and hopefully no one is stupid enough to think that the two F'ing B's (Fabulous Brian & Fabulous Boris) are the only politicians out to do a bit of nasty negative campaigning. I hear whole truckloads of dirt are being ordered by all sides. Mrs Angry has claimed that her family have the power of Mystic Meg. I claim no such powers, but I do have this prediction. The Boris Vs Ken election will be one of the nastiest ever seen in the UK and the battle in Barnet between Brian Coleman and Andrew Dismore will be the nastiest GLA battle ever. Brian Colemans strategy will be to make people think that the pair of them are the same and hope tribal loyalties see him through. I am sure that Andrew Dismore has a stack of dirt to throw back & I suspect that he'll be aided and abetted by a whole army of people who don't like Coleman (including some local Tories who want to be rid of him).

I was asked this evening, as I discussed this blog over a beer with a mate, who my money was on. I'd say the smart money has to be on Dismore. There are three reasons for this (in order of importance) :-

1) We'll have had 2 years of vicious Tory spending cuts in London. Dave Cameron has no interest in helping Boris and no interest in saving Coleman, so the tide will be out for the pair of them politically.

2) Labour will see Boris as a massive scalp (as Ken was previously for the Tories) and will throw the kitchen sink at him. Brian Coleman is a fine stick to beat him with, being Boris's no 1 henchman in shafting Londons brave firemen. If Boris decides Coleman is a liability, he'll lose him.

3) Andrew Dismore is far more intelligent than Brian Coleman, has a team of people in the constituency who are loyal to him personally and he knows how to campaign. Boris would be well advised to stand well back when the Coleman hits the fan.

If I was a betting man, I'd take a small wager on Coleman being dumped before the GLA elections actually happen. There's a few things which could tip him out. He's up before the Standards committee again, sometime soon and could be suspended. There is a strong possibility that the Tories in Barnet will have a new Leader some time in the next six months (Hillan is apparently very poorly) and a new leader may well want shot of him. And the biggest imponderable, as mentioned previously - Boris might just wake up to the fact that he's probably the worst possible advert for the Tories.

In a tight election Coleman is just what Ken Livingstone needs. Would anyone who knows Coleman, be in the least bit surprised if he imploded to hole Boris below the waterline a few weeks before the Mayoral Election with one of his idiotic outbursts. I've no idea if Boris reads the Barnet Eye, but if he's reading this I have one question for him "Is your career really worth flushing down the bog, just to keep Brian Coleman in free dinners for the next four years?". The one thing which puzzles me about Boris and his indulgence of Brian is why? We all know that Boris has plenty of mates from the Bullingdon club, who are past masters at behaving badly, but at least they really are toffs. We all know that, when it comes down to it, Coleman is a bit common, he fools no one. For all their faults, at least the Bullingdon mob, could afford their dinners and weren't constantly on the ponce. Has Brian fooled Boris into actually thinking that this is how "commoners" carry on and that he's a man of the people? I've a word of advice for Boris. The average working man has no time at all for a man who won't stand his round. It amazes me that Boris thinks employing a spin doctor is the way to fix the Coleman problem. Wouldn't he be better sacking him & getting the spin doctor to spend his time getting him a few gigs back on "Have I Got News For You" or "Top Gear". Now that would win him a few votes for sure.