Maybe we don't deserve better than Biden or Trump

 I rarely foray into foreign politics, but they say that when America sneezes, the world catches a cold, so it does affect us. Yesterday, in the USA, the last faint hope that the choice for US citizens would not be Donald Trump or Joe Biden disappeared, as the so called 'Super Tuesday' results were counted and Nikki Hayley withdrew from the race. In this election, it is not so much catching a cold as having dementia that is the worry. It is impossible to watch Joe Biden and not worry. Biden is 81 years old and he looks it. He simply does not look completely with it. As for Trump, he is not much better. He's 77 and despite the spray on tan and dye'd hair, age is catching up with him. 

Last night, I was having a drink (well actually a tonic water, as it was a non drinking day) with my old football mates. The subject of Trump and Biden came up. "Surely America, with a population over a quarter of a billion people can find someone better?" was one comment. Another was "America deserves better". When I got home Mrs T was watching the Peston show, discussing the budget with Rachel Reeve. Whatever your political hue, any reasonable person would conclude that Reeve is a top quality politician. She knows her onions and it seems likely she'll be an excellent chancellor. She worked for the Bank of England before becoming a politician and understands economics. I am a fan of people who have proper jobs before becoming politicians. When I contrast the conversation she had with Peston with any coverage of Trump and Biden, it is a stark contrast. Trump reduces everything to a simplistic, bombastic, transactional level. One of my friends said that Trump would keep Russia, China, Hamas and Iran in line, as he's an unpredictable loose cannon, and they dare not attract his wrath. This is a mantra that is repeated regularly. There is an element of truth in it, but it misses the big picture. All of these organisations think in the long term. To understand their strategy, just look at the Taliban in Afghanistan. Their strategy with the USA was to simply keep fighting, until the US got sick of war and went home. 

They know that whatever Trump does, he's only going to be there for four years, if he wins. So long as they don't provoke him into a catastrophic response, they can do what they like. Trump is not a details man. Trump has a high disdain for Nato and Putin knows this and will exploit it. So long as he can keep Trump onside, his long term strategy is well served by Trump. Brexit disengaged Britain, a staunch supporter of the EU border states, from Europe, this was a major victory for Putin and made his Ukraine war something far more sustainable. Having disengaged Britain from Europe politically, if he can get Trump to disengage the US from NATO, Russia will be in a dominant position in Europe, despite the fact that the country has shown it can't even win a war in Ukraine. Without NATO support, nations such as Germany will not want to risk the ire of Russia. 

Trump also claimed that Hamas would not have attacked Israel had he been President. As he's provided no analysis of this claim, it his quite hard to assess it. I suspect that what he means is that he'd have given Israel carte blanche to do what they like to destroy Hamas, without any quarter given to humanitarian concerns. Trumpian logic is that without the US holding Israel back out of concern for ordinary Palestinians, the consequences for Hamas would be so dire that they would be forced to surrender. I am not entirely sure Jihadi's think like that. It is worth remembering that Trumps policies dealing with Jihadi's in Afghanistan were catastrophic and paved the way for the Taliban takeover. Trump didn't care. In his mind, it's a long way away. The Jihadis, be it in Afghanistan or Gaza know that whatever happens, Trump will be gone in four years. Whatever he does, they will bide their time. Trump's strategy is to disengage and not involve America. 

Having said all that, only a fool would say that Biden has done any better. In fact, on foreign policy he has been a disaster. It is actually hard to argue with Trumps logic that he'd have done better, it would be almost impossible to do worse. In Ukraine, the US has stopped supplying arms, leading to the Russians going on the offensive. With regards to Hamas, Biden seems to have no strategy at all. With regards to Iran, again, I have no idea what his aims are. Looking closer to home, it is clear that Biden hates Great Britain. It is almost embarrassing to note that Trump seems to love us. It will be interesting to see how this dynamic would change with a Keir Starmer government and Trump in the White House. I've no idea what sort of relationship Starmer would have with Biden if he wins again. Although politically closer, I think that Biden is implacably anti British. 

I cannot recall a worse choice for the Americans than Trump and Biden. The only selling point for Biden is that he's not Donald Trump. I doubt even the staunchest Democrat can honestly claim to be excited by him. He is just a doorstop, keeping the door open until someone better comes along. I think Nikki Hayley was on the button with Trump. If Trump wins, the planet will suffer. None of the problems will go away, they will fester, just as they did in Afghanistan during his presidency. All Trump and Biden managed between them, was to ensure that all the deaths of British and American soldiers in two decades were completely in vain. 

But getting back to the choice and my friends comment that we deserve better than Trump and Biden. Maybe we don't. Maybe the fact that we are too lazy to actually demand politicians of the calibre of Rachel Reeve, who know what they are doing and can string more than three sentences together without losing it, means that we deserve exactly what we are going to get. It's like insurance policies. We don't read the small print, so we get stung. And it is our own fault.