No one needs Andy Burnham to succeed more than Kemi Badenoch

Of all the football rivalries in the UK, which is the most toxic? Most people would probably say "Rangers and Celtic. However they are known as "The Old Firm". Have you ever wondered why? Well The most popular origin points to a 1904 satirical cartoon published in The Scottish Referee sports newspaper. Drawn ahead of the Scottish Cup final between the two sides, it depicted a dishevelled man holding a sandwich board that read, "Patronise The Old Firm." The cartoon mocked the fact that the two clubs practically ran the sport in Scotland and profited heavily from it. When Rangers were relegated from the Scottish Premier League for cheating, it cost Celtic nearly as much money as it cost Rangers. Whilst the fans loath each other, the boards of the two clubs have always worked behind the scenes to assure their dominance.

What has this got to do with Kemi Badenoch and Andy Burnham? The answer is quite simple. Whilst the ordinary loyalists for Labour and the Tories hate each other, for decades, there has been a similar 'understanding' to squeeze out other parties. The UK, as a single entity is by nature a centre right block, with the emphasis on the centre. Much as those at the fringes of the left and right would love it if we were all secretly communists or fascists, the vast majoirty of us are not.  We have an Island mentality, that explains Brexit, but we are not by nature racists or religiously intolerant. We embrace traditions such as a curry after the pub, a Pizza with football and a Chinese takeaway. Our music is a mish mash of cultural influences. Reggae is more the music of London than any English folk music will ever be. 

Elections and changes of governments have historically happened when one side has lost the plot. But the top levels of Labour and the Tories do not hate each other as they know that whilst this comfy cartel runs, they will both get their turn sooner or later. I had a freind who was a civil servant working for Nato in Brussels. When Blair became PM, I asked what the Europeans thought of the change. He said "As far as they are concerned, Labour and Tory are the same and it is business as usual". I suspect that post Breixt that view may have changed, but the comfy cartel has worked very well for the bank balances of all involved. 

But the collapse of the Boris Johnson regime and the abject failure of Sir Keir Starmer to turn a landslide into a platform to address the concerns of ordinary voters, has lead to the rise of Reform. The reason we have Andy Burnham turning up to pick up the keys of No 10 is because both Labour and Tories are terrified that the comfy cartel is coming to an end. Labour have correctly identified the need to get someone who connects and resonates with ordinary working class voters. Rightly or wrongly, Starmer was seen as a disconnnected posh boy. Being a top level barrister wins arguments in courts, but it does not win you friends in the working mens clubs, which were the bastion of the Labour heartlands. Somehow millionaire commodity broker, who was the son of City stockbroker has persuaded many that he is a man of the people. It is a trick that is easy to pull off when you are up against someone like Starmer, less so against Burnham. 

The problem for Reform is that they've never managed to get a poll rating of anything above about a third of voters, apart from a couple of dodgy polls. This has declined to around 27%, even whilst Starmer was secure in No 10. What has intrigued me most has been the behaviour of Kemi Badenoch. She has said all of the things you'd expect a Tory Leader to say, but with almost zero enthusiasm. In fact, her response has been rather more nuanced than I expected.

The argument sounded clever: Conservatives have never won in Makerfield. Do a deal with Reform. Stand down and they’ll do the same in Aberdeen “Unite the Right”.

I decided it was more important to Unite the Country. That’s why we won in Aberdeen.

My piece in Daily Mail below 👇 https://t.co/99tFUd4nmP pic.twitter.com/ocqtbgVhOJ

— Kemi Badenoch (@KemiBadenoch) June 21, 2026

Badenoch knows two things. The first is that she is safe for the moment as leader, the Tories are not stupid enough to know that it would look terrible to replace her now. The second is that she knows much of Reforms support in Red Wall areas is Labour not Tory. a drift back to a Burnham Labour party will push Reform's ratings down and make the Tories look more like the credible opposition. She does not want to be the Tory Leader who destroyed the party. She has twigged that Reform has done her a favour. They have hoovered up the worst basket case councillors and bonkers marginal figures, as well as Robert Jenryck, her most potent enemy. She has a party purged of the lunatic fringe, which can start to develop a positive way forward. Reform has repeatedly come out with uncosted and unworkable policies, that sound attractive after nine pints at the pub, but simply won't work. 

So long as the Tories and Badenoch hold their nerve, I can see a very realistic scenario where she could find her way to No 10. If Burnham manages to persuade the Red Wall that Labour are credible again and get their polling figures back up to the mid 30's, this would knock Reform below the Tories. Those on the soft and hard right would have to consider the Tories as the best way to keep Burnham out. Badenoch will hold all of the cards. At the last election, the Tories were squeezed by both the Lib Dems and Reform. I doubt they will get too many back from The Lib Dems, but if Badenoch can sell herself as the only credible right wing party, there is plenty of scope to win back seats.If the Greens decide togo after the Lib Dem vote, then she could find herself in an unexpectedly strong position. 

Just about every political commentator has decided that Reform are now well past their high tide mark in the polls. Farage has shown that he is an ineffective leader, when it comes to turning polling figures into election wins. The Party has shown it cannot pick credible candidates. Following the council elections, all manner of dodgy candidates that were not properly screened have now done the walk of shame away from the council. Many people who elected Reform Councils are seeing taxes go up, rather than down as promised.

If I was advising Badenoch, I would be saying to appear sane, reasonable and rational at all times. He biggest weakness has been to go off the end of the pier with excitement at the drop of a hat. She would be well placed to wait for Burnham to start moving his agenda, then calmly lay out why the Tory response is rational and contrast it with the Reform position. Farage takes a scattergun approach to policy and I have always beleived this is his downfall. The Tories were on the receiving end of a good hammering at the last election. Badenoch simply needs to get a respectable result to leave a positive legacy. I don't seriously think she'll ever be Prime Minister, but I thought the same about Starmer before Boris imploded. I think Burnham will get Labour on track. The Keir knockers are not changing their play book, which plays into his hands. Given all the defections to Reform, without by-elections, Farage looks like a hypocrite demanding a general election. He has been shifty and evasive about the £5 million gift he received, claiming it was simply because he's a marvellous chap, rather than for political benefit. When all of your opponents seem to be hell bent on self destruction, keeping calms is always a good strategy.

Of course it is far too early to say, but it may well be that Badenoch is one of those politicians born lucky. When Boris Johnson won a Landslide and Corbyn was leader of Labour, everyone thought the Tories were in for a decade. In this febrile Social media age, I suspect that being PM for three years may well come to be seen as an achievement.