Do you know how much extra money the UK is spending checking perfectly lawful people crossing our borders, following Brexit? According to Reuters, the figure is £4.7 Billion pounds. This is not money spent preventing human trafficking gangs, or stopping drug smugglers. This is money that is required to check perfectly legal citizens crossing the border with EU conutries and making sure that when prawn sandwiches and baguettes are imported from France, the paperwork is correct. One of the mantra's of Brexit was that it would let us "take back control of our borders". What has happened is the complete opposite. We are spending £4.7 billion pounds checking what is by and large perfectly legal activities, adding huge costs and wasting everyones time, whilst starving our border forces of the money required to stop criminals using non legal routes. In short, it is a huge waste of money. It is beyond dispute that the Tory government have lost control of the borders. What no one seems to be saying is that a vast sum is being spent checking and inconveniencing perfectly law abiding citizens, diverting money from where it should be spent, stopping criminals.
It doesn't matter whether you support Remain or Brexit, the truth is that the government has made a monumental cock up in the negotiations with Europe. We have the worst of all worlds, huge inconvenience for travellers, huge costs for businesses and an ipen border for criminals. Rishi Sunak has been Prime Minister overseeing this mess. Perhaps the only thing he has done right is give us the opportunity to sling him out on the 4th July.
A serious question. Are there any companies or individuals out there who are demontrably better off as a result of Brexit? I'm not talking about people who have a nice warm feeling inside, as they have thrown off the yolk of EU oppression. I am talking about people or companies who can say "Yes, our profits/turnover/budgets have demonstrably improved as a result of Brexit". We have a large group of right wing newspapers who are still solidly supportive of the Brexit project, but I can't remember any examples in any of them where they actually could point to anyone who was doing better?
I was chatting with a Brexit supporting friend a week or so ago and his take on it is that Brexit was right but it was implemented by an incompetent Tory government, who let the Remain supporting civil service run rings around them to scupper the whole thing. Despite still believing in the project, they were completely unable to point to any real benefits. The excuse was that "We've been robbed of a real Brexit", but the bottom line is that we no longer are part of the EU, we've got our blue passports back, we have to get a stamp to go to EU countries and EU citizens have no right to work in the UK. If we want to buy or seel products in the EU zone, it is a bureaucratic nightmare. I know all about this. One of my businesses is a small music instrument retail business. We have given up selling to EU customers. It is simply not worth the hassle, some of our suppliers have gone bust as a result of the economic situation, which Brexit has been a large part of, meaning that there are all sorts of things we can no longer source. Our main business is a rehearsal and recording studio. Prior to Brexit, many third and fourth tier bands would be busily rehearsing now for Spring tours of the EU. It is such a minefield now that most are simply not bothering. Of the very few musicians I know of who supported Brexit, Roger Daltrey of The Who told the Independent last summer
Daltrey also complained about the difficulties currently facing musicians who wish to tour around Europe, as they face costly delays caused by red tape and the ongoing lorry queues at Dover.
“They’re making life hard for us, I don’t disagree,” he said. “It doesn’t need to be. One truck goes into Europe full of equipment with a carnet, it’s not hard to get visas, is it? It shouldn’t be. We used to do it regularly in the Sixties and Seventies.”
Bear in mind that a huge operation like The Who, plaing large venues, can afford to employ the accountants and lawyers to smooth things through. Third and fourth tier bands playing to 2-400 people and just about getting by before Brexit on sales of merchandising, have been completely scuppered. I can only really comment on the sector I work in. Are there sectors where there has been a benefit. It is telling that there is now a vacant ministerial seat at the Office for Brexit Opportunities.
People like Tim Martin, the Wetherspoons boss, another ardent Brexit supporter almost immediately started moaning about the lack of cheap EU labour to work in his pubs, once Brexit was signed into law.
According to an article in Investopia, the only obvious winners are US Bankers as it gives them a bit of an advantage over UK bankers. If this is true then it really is most unfortunate.
The concept that Putins Russia will see a Brexit as anything other than a massive opportunity is very naive in the extreme. There is a view that this isn't our problem. But a fragmented Europe on our doorstep cannot be anything other than a risk.
For many of us raised in the 60's and 70's, the USSR seemed like a permanent feature, a fact of life. What replaced it? Look at the situation in the Ukraine and in Georgia. Stability has been replaced by war. I doubt whether anyone anticipated this when the Berlin wall came down. I doubt too many thought the USSR would dissolve in the way it did, almost overnight. In the EU, should the UK go, many countries will be forced to re-evaluate their membership and put their narrow naional interests first. Whilst for rich, stable countries such as Germany and France, this is likely to not be a problem, the poorer nations that are relying on the EU to help them build prosperity, that couild be devastating. Who knows what sort of regimes will thrive in such circumstances. Wheras we now have economic migrants from Poland and other Eastern states, we may well find we get a wholly different sort of migrant, ones who need massive financial assistance.
What we are seeing in Ukraine is exactly what I thought the worst outcome of Brexit would be. I dare say no Brexiteer would agree with my view, but it was clarly one of the biggest risks of the whole Brexit process. As we are no longer at the top table of the EU, we simply don't have the clout to get Germany to give the Ukrainians the hardware they need. I am not naive enough to think it would all be fine and dandy if Brexit hadn't happened, but we would be at the EU meetings, making the case for the smaller nations and those under threat.
So what is the way forward? Unlike Dallas, Remainers will never wake up to find it has all just been a bad dream and we never left. In fact, the term Remainer is redundant, as we have left. If that was how you described yourself previously, you should now call yourself a Rejoiner. Brexit is now the status quo and your job is to out the tangible benefits of rejoining and demonstrate that it is indisputably in our best interests to join. I do not believe any scheme to rejoin without another referendum is viable, so it would need to be a robust case. Then there is the question of whether the EU would have us back and on what terms. Contrary to Brexiteer myth, Margaret Thatcher was never a Brexiteer. She was a Euro sceptic, which is a different thing entirely. She knew she'd done an amazing deal with the EU and should we ever get back in, it won't be on those terms again. I suspect that the EU will make it a condition that we don't bugger off again, should we rejoin and I suspect we'll have some sort of rather unpalatable 'associate' status for an extended period before we take our seat at the table.
Putin and US bankers. It is a sad irony that they have been the biggest beneficiaries of the votes of some of the most patriotic Englishmen. I was sixty last year, I am starting to wonder if I'll live long enough to see this all play out to it's logical conclusion, even if I live until I'm 100. But in the meantime, if you can demonstrate a tangible benefit of Brexit, please leave a comment as we need a grown up debate about this. Sadly we have a Conservative government that cannot even have a grown up debate about whether it is OK to dodge taxes or bully your staff, so there is no chance of a sensible debate about the future for Brexit. As for Sir Keir Starmer, his whole strategy for Brexit is to say nothing at all. Does he have a cunning plan for the day after he's elected? Something up his sleeve other than his arm? It's a nice idea, but to be quite honest with you, it wouldn't surprise me if he's just as useless and Truss and Rishi, when push comes to shove.
Am I alone? I am feeling absolutely terrified for the future. Maybe I'll feel different tomorrow, or next week. I certainly hope so. I'm a natural optimist. Life has worked out pretty well for me thus far, but I have three children in the twenties and when I think about what the future holds for them, it fills me with dread. Not only that, but we are going into the Winter with fuel shortages at the pumps, the energy industry in crisis and massive gaps on shelves. My own business, which last week had recovered to normal levels, after 18 months of pandemic restrictions, has been plunged back into loss, as musicians cancel sessions, unable to get fuel to get their gear over. We've only just brought our staff back from furlough.
It becomes clearer every day that the whole fiasco that is #Brexit is ripping the economy apart. Those who foolishly claim that Brexit has nothing to do with the fuel crisis, they have had the rug pulled away as the govt has eased Brexit induced work restrictions on foreign HGV drivers. It is clear that there is an empty vessel in government when it comes to managing the logistics of running a major economy. No one has any idea whether Xmas will be a time of plenty or a mad scramble to find a few stocked shelves. Will those presents we've ordered arrive? If there is a cold winter, will there be enough energy to stay warm? We have no energy security and our supplies are controlled at the whim of Paris and Moscow. It might all work out fine, but no one should be surprised if Crimbo dinner is spaghetti and spam by candle light.
As to the longer term prospects. The free world is lead by Joe Biden. His only redeeming characteristic is that he's not Donald Trump. Trump is waiting in the wings for his next shot at the Presidency in three years time. He has stated that only a difficult call from his Doctor will stop him. There is a report about the dying days of his presidency in todays Daily Express. It is terrifying. If it is to be believed, his top general had to phone the Chinese to reassure them that the US wouldn't launch a pre-emptive strike. The implication was that the US military would prevent Trump launching an attack if he ordered one, technically an act of treason (albiet a very sensible one).
In Russia, we have a government that is happy to use nerve gas against opponents in the UK and we can do nothing about it. If that wasn't bad enough, they control our energy supplies. Afghanistan now has a regime that is in league with Al Qaida, an organisation that perpetrated the worst attack on the West in peacetime. It is surely only a matter of time before the terror camps open again.
Then there is our relationship with Europe. It is 100% clear that this has gone wrong. I am off to Portugal soon. Although I am double vaccinated, the Portuguese don't recognise the UK NHS certificate as proof, so I have to get a covid test. This will cost a minimum of £50. Just one little bit of the expense of 'taking back control'. My eldest daughter was lucky enough to study in Italy under the Erasmus scheme. Boris promised that this would be retained, but renaged on his word. If my daughter has a daughter, she will grow up in a very different world. She won't have Erasmus. She won't be able to work in Europe without jumping through huge hoops. Many of my studio customers are bands that used to survive by touring in Europe. I am not aware of any going any time soon. Of course some of this is down to covid, but they say there it is no longer economical.
Covid has cost the country trillions. Sooner or later, these bills will have to be paid. It is clear that the govt has no interest in getting the winners from covid (Amazon, Paypal, etc) to pay, so it will fall on the poorest (those getting a £20 cut in their benefits).
Try as I might, I can see little to be optimistic about. We have a government that has shown it couldn't run a whelk stall. The opposition is no better. Watching the Labour conference, with the opposition arguing about how to stack the deckchairs on the sinking dredger, rather than holding Boris Johnson to account for the mess he is making, it is clear they do not provide a credible alternative. What does Keir Starmer stand for, a free pot noodle for anyone who can tell me.
My Dad used to always say "Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die". I'm finding it pretty hard to be merry at the moment.
I regularly talk to people from all across the political spectrum. People often say that those on the ultra hard left are much the same as those on the ultra hard right. Both definately share one thing in common, the inability to see any of the shades between black and white and the belief that just about everything is a binary choice. Both saw #Brexit as a huge opportunity to advance their particular viewpoint. The question that has been interesting me is whether it is the hard left or the hard right that will reap the benefits of Brexit.
For those on the right, they saw Brexit as an opportunity to roll back regulations, to shake off the restrictions on trade placed by the EU, allowing us to move to a free trade nirvana. They also loved the idea of the UK taking control of its borders and restricting those who could live and work in the UK. Those on the left took the view that restrictions on cheap migrant labour would strengthen the position of workers, promote organised labour unions and ultimately see more state control of industry as the UK economy struggles to adapt to the shock of Brexit.
So where are we right now? Well it seems that if we want to sell to the EU, our largest market, we need to follow their rules anyway. We just don't have any say when they are drawn up. As to the free trade nirvana, this pipe dream is slowly fading, when the reality of having to actually negotatiate dozens of highly complex trade deals with nations we have trading links with. For big trading partners such as the USA, it has become clear that they do not share the view of Boris. The USA has no interest at all in entertaining a mega trade deal.
From todays Daily Express
This position will not change whilst Joe Biden or anyone of his viewpoint is president, which effectively means for the next three and a half years. Whilst we are likely to see small deals, the dreams of a new free trading Great Britain has all but gone up in smoke. As to taking control of the borders and stopping free movement of people. This has not exactly been a stunning success. About a million people have gone back to EU countries by some estimates. Most of them were hard working and we now have a labour shortage. We are starting to see empty shelves as a result. Supply chains developed over decades with the EU are no longer functioning properly. The right wing press are still going bonkers about refugees entering. As Boris Johnson has developed a penchant for antagonising the French, they are doing nothing to assist the UK in stemming the flow. From a hard right perspective, there is little to crow about on the Brexit front and it is likely to get worse. Of course many of them blame the pandemic, but in many ways this has softened the blow of Brexit as the economy was semi shut down when we left. It is only as we recover the real damage becomes clear. Even Nigel Farage is now admitting that the trade deal with the USA isn't happening. Farage knows damn well that any chance of this disappeared when Trump left the White House.
Our PM goes on and on about British beef exports to the USA but is completely mute on a trade deal.
From the hard left perspective, the picture is altogether different. The Labour market has tightened, giving workers the whip hand. Whereas previously, wages were suppressed by cheap labour, now firms are having to pay decent wages and offer good conditions if they want to retain staff. Trades Unions are starting to organise in a way we've not seen since Margaret Thatcher came to power. It is in the interests of employers to work with Unions, as if staff become disenchanted, then they can easily find other jobs. The government is also having to take urgent action to prop up key sectors of the economy. No one seems to have noticed, but railways have by and large been renationalised, energy companies are seeking bale outs and we are having to face up to a national plan to resecure energy supplies. With each crisis, the hard left can add more fuel to the argument that the liberal capitalist economy is failing. None of us know whether we will see power cuts and food shortages this Xmas, but if we do, it will be very difficult for Boris Johnson to maintain his Teflon coating. The one thing Boris has in his favour is that the Labour Party, under Sir Keir Starmer are not really looking to push a hard left agenda. From my perspective, they look like Conservatives who've had a makeover to make them more palitable.
As we see empty shelves, power supplies in chaos, we don't see Sir Keir on TV laying out why it's happening and what and who is to blame. Sir Keir has the rather quaint view that people in the North of England don't want to be told that the empty shelves are a very real sign that #Brexit isn't working. When Sir Keir Starmer became Labour leader, I expected his forensic debating skills as a top Barrister to soon expose Boris Johnson and his inept government for what it really is. Instead what has happened is that Boris has realised that Sir Keir never proposes a solution for anything and never takes a stand on anything. Sir Keir has been leader for a while now and no one knows what he stands for, what his solutions for the problems facing the UK are and why we should vote Labour. It is the perceived wisdom that Labour are simply standing back and hoping the Tories make such a hash of it that they can simply walk in at the next election. One thing we should all realise is that if the Tories believe Boris starts to look like he'll lose the Tories seats, they will dump him as quickly as possible.
In many ways, it seems to me that we are lumbered with a government that is incapable of doing the job and an opposition that is incapable of holding them account for landing us in this mess. The hard left must be absolutely gutted that it got it's timing so wrong. If they can ever move away from the public perception of being a cabal of anti semites, which seems highly unlikely in the short term, they might get some traction as they would have strong Union backing and organisational support.
The UK really has two options. One is to somehow make Brexit work. How this can be done with labour shortages, energy shortages and empty supermarket shelves is difficult for me to envisage. The other option is for is to figure out a way to rejoin the EU club without the country falling apart. I can only really see this happening when there are real life day to day impacts on ordinary voters everyday lives. It seems to me that Boris has taken a punt on President Macron losing the French election and a new incumbent being more amenable to him. This seems unlikely.
Finally I can't finish off a bnlog about the EU without mentioning Ireland. President Biden is very keen to push his Irish connections and this means that we not only have to deal with the EU, we have to try and keep Biden onside. Back in January, I predicted, semi jokingly, that in October the following would happen
Elisabeth Truss flies to the USA to try and negotiate a trade deal. Joe Biden tells her that this can only be completed if the UK cedes Northern Ireland to the Republic. Truss agrees and Irish Nationalists everywhere celebrate. Truss claims that her action is only a practical recognition of what Boris had put into effect with the Brexit treaty.
To me this doesn't seem as far fetched as it did in January. In short, we are in a mess and I don't trust either the Conservatives or Labour to get us out of it, with their current crop of incompetents. I can't see the EU wanting us back in the short to medium term and I can't see us ever getting the trade deals we were promised by vote leave, the billions for the NHS or any of the other benefits that swung the country behind the pipedream. Of course Farage and his crew will blame the EU (for defending their key interests), Biden (becauase he isn't Trump), and everyone else, when it is clear where the problem lies.
Ultimately, it seems to me that the only people who really will benefit from Brexit will be the hard left, who will gain many of their objectives without coming anywhere near power. The world is a funny old place.
I wasn't going to write about Thomas Cook this morning. Regular readers will know that we reserve Monday for our environment Monday column. But as I returned home from our morning dog walk over the Totteridge Valley, I was enraged to hear the Transport secretary Grant Shapps claiming that Thomas Cook was bound to fail because it had systemic problems and the government had no business stepping in to save it. I am sorry, but I cannot possibly let such a massive porkie pass unchallenged. There is no argument that the company had serious problems. There is no argument that it had been badly run. But there is no argument at all about why it failed today. The reason for that is completely down to dogs breakfast that the government has made of the Brexit process. Given what it's business involves, Thomas Cook is uniquely exposed to the chaos that the government has caused. Let me explain.
1. Uncertainty. A travel company requires the confidence of it's customers that they will actually have a pleasant holiday. It is five weeks until the date when we leave, but no one knows what will happen when we get off the plane in France or Spain on the first of November. Will we need visa's? Will we be able to rent a car? Will our £££'s be worth anything? Will we need extra medical insurance? Will it take hours to get through customs? Will we have to go through the green channel, the red channel or the blue channel? Will we get a stamp on our passports. Will we have currency restrictions? What will our mobile phone charges be? With all of these questions unresolved, the many Thomas Cook customers who traditionally catch the last of the sun are being cautious. For a company such as Thomas Cook, the fact that the government has made such a dogs breakfast of the process, the implications of this are massive. For the travelling public, it means that you'd have to be bonkers to book a holiday until we know what is happening.
2. Currency fluctuations. Thomas Cook's customers largely pay in British Pounds. They pay their suppliers in Euro's or Dollars. The uncertainty over Brexit has caused the £ to plummet. In August, when it looked as if Boris was set to impose a no deal Brexit the £ plummeted to 1.08 euro's. For Thomas Cook, this coincided with the height of the holiday season. It also it hit its year low against the dollar then. No one knows what the exchange rate will be on 1st November. There are three possible scenarios, a no deal, a deal or an extension. Each of these will result in a completely different exchange rate. For Thomas Cook, any refinancing deal had to take account of all of these scenarios. Whether you are a Brexiteer or a Remainer, it should be clear to you that the currency issues were lethal for Thomas Cook.
3. Compensation claims. Thomas Cook are an airline operator. By law they have to provide compensation for late flights. As no one knows the situation with passports and customs on 1st November, the company was exposed to the risk of massive compensation claims, if flights suffered disruption. Of course the compensation is governed by European law, so it is possible that this won't apply, but it is another variable.
4. Risk. When a company that is in trouble tries to negotiate finance, the key factor is what the risk to the lender/provider is. I now quite a lot about this. I used to work for a software company that wrote decision support software to analyse risk. Prior to Brexit, the risks of wild currency swings for Sterling were not high. For a company like Thomas Cook securing finance, they would be able to predict, within parameters the likely value of the £ vs the Euro and Dollar. In the event of a no deal, the £ could easily drop below one euro. In the event of a sensible deal it is likely to be above 1.20. From the perspective of Thomas Cook, their financing requirements could be 20% more than they would be today, to service their dollar and euro suppliers. I'm not surprised that banks were not prepared to take the risk. the risks are simply too high. Compound the fact that on top of the currency risk, there is a credible risk that travellers may be prevented from travelling. The compensation risk adds yet more toxicity to the proposition.
Grant Shapps refusal to take any responsibility means that 9,000 are out of work. They don't even know if they will get their paycheck this month. As to the number of holiday makers who will have lost out, I've not seen a figure. I have an old fashioned view of this sort of situation. Grant Shapps as Transport secretary should be supporting transportation businesses thrown into chaos by his governments incompetence. But the modern breed of politician never apologise and never take responsibility. There should be a multi billion fund to support businesses adversely affected by Brexit. They should have a degree of certainty. Thomas Cook agreed a rescue package with a large Chinese firm. This has fallen apart as there is simply too much uncertainty. Personally I'd like to have seen the company nationalised and put back on its feet. It is better to pay 9,000 to work than to sit on the dole. It is hugely unfair on the people who bought holidays in good faith to lose them. If Grant Shapps and Boris Johnson really believe that there is a bright future for the UK post Brexit, then a travel firm would be a great investment. Foreign travel is a luxury and if the economy is going to boom, then we'd all have lots of money to spend on holidays with Thomas Cook. Once the company was back on its feet, they could sell the shares back to the private sector at a huge profit. Or maybe Boris Johnson and Grant Shapps, having read the latest Yellowhammer analysis, have concluded that no one will be able to afford holidays next year. If that is the case, then don't you want to know?
Thomas Cook is the first high profile victim of Brexit. I very much doubt that it will be the last. My advice? If you are booking a holiday, make sure your insurance covers this sort of thing.
Boris is stating that the law banning 'No Deal' has wrecked his Brexit negotiating strategy. He insists that he has to be able to walk away from the table if they don't give him what he wants. But it is not a table he can walk away from. This is not a transaction to buy a house, with another, better house down the road, it is a divorce. Anyone who has ever been through a divorce knows damn well that you can't simply say "Well I'm walking away from the table". Given the complicated private life of Boris, you'd think this would have occurred to him by now. I wonder what his lawyer would have said to him if he'd said "If she doesn't give me the etchings, the Ferrari and the Mansion in Berkshire, tell her it's no deal". Surely Boris knows that in all divorces, the lawyer is the only person who wins. I wonder if Boris has thought whether the Dominic Cummings strategy of alienating many of your friends and supporters will help the Conservatives in the long run.
The current impasse in Parliament about whether we should leave Parliament without a deal fascinates me. The Tory Party has virtually imploded over the matter, but what fascinates me more than anything is that everyone, leavers, remainers and those on the fence know damn well that the concept of ''No Deal' is an illusion and a lie. You may ask how I can make such a preposterous claim? Well think about some of the arguments that the ERG and hard leavers are putting about. How about the one about tariffs damaging trade? They say "German car makers won't let that happen". Or the need for us to get visa's to go to France or Spain "They won't want to lose the tourist income". Or the ending of information sharing between European and UK police authorities to deal with terrorism and crime "Of course that will continue". Whatever you may or may not think of the EU, even the most hardline leave supporters recognise that these will need to continue. They can only continue if some sort of deal is done. Maybe this will take the form of a thousand small deals, but at some point all of these issues will be tied up and resolved. What will happen in the meantime? Well clearly it would be suicidal to cease co-operation on terrorism and nuclear safety etc, so a temporary deal will have to be bodged together in a hurry. As to the German car makers and the arrangements for cancer drugs, these will presumably be given a reasonable amount of priority. Given that the Conservative Party have virtually abolished the Royal Navy, whether or not a deal on fishing rights in UK waters is put together may be a bit irrelevant. Even if we banned French fishermen, we don't have the ships to stop them. Will we need a visa to visit France? Who knows, common sense says that some sort of deal will be done. Will UK companies still be able to sell products in UK markets, will UK pensioners be booted out of their homes in Spain and France? Will UK bands be able to tour in Europe without red tape making tax arrangements making it impractical?
There will be thousands of smaller issues, things which affect small groups of people. Most of these, people won't realise until they actually try and do something which is affected. I fully expect that all of these things will eventually be resolved. The bank of England say that this will result in a 5% reduction in GDP. This means that we will be worse off if we have not negotiated a proper deal. But whatever happens, there will have to be all manner of temporary deals in place.
What this means is that the term 'No Deal' is technically incorrect. What the phrase should be is whether we go for a managed of a chaotic exit from the EU. Why don't we use these terms? Presumably because Boris and the ERG realise that arguing for chaos does not sound good. The thing I cannot get my head around is why the ERG and the hard Brexiteers are in such a rush. We've been in the EU for decades. No one is banged up in jail because we are members, no one is starving to death because we are members and no one is constrained from going about their daily business because we are members. Surely the aim of Brexiteers should be to prove that the UK is better off out of the EU and the best way to do that is to have as seamless an exit as possible.
If Brexiteers believe that the best way forward for the UK is a free trade deal with the USA and us trading with the EU on WTO/GATT24 rules, then they should be able to find qualified, respected economists who can put the case together. Has this been done? There should be a detailed study that analyses the different sectors of the economy and lays out the pro's and cons for each.
For many Brexiteers, it is not about the economy. For them, it is about sovereignty and independence. They believe that the EU has meant that we are no longer a self governing nation. They object to us being subjected to Europe wide legislation. I've asked many for specific examples of where EU law has resulted in injustice. The usually cited cases are vague notions that the European Court of Human rights has meant that rapists, murderers and serial killers roam the streets and have tellies in their jail cells. This is nonsense. The UK Parliament makes our laws and our judiciary set the sentences. The human rights laws in Brussels that are so objected to were largely drafted along the lines of UK law. Whether we leave or stay, we will still have these laws and the UK will not suddenly adopt the US ways of executing people or locking them up for ever for nicking three bags of sweeties from Smiths. When the UK has lost cases in the EU court of human rights, it has been because the law has been incorrectly applied. The judges who sit on the ECHR panel are the best qualified judges in Europe and they apply the law as it is written. If you think that UK judges will apply the law in a different way, then you probably don't understand the way the law works. Of course we could tear up all human rights laws. The upside of that might well be that rapists and serial killers lose the tellies in their cells, but the downside is that any government that has to take no account of human rights can behave in a very dangerous manner. I personally would rather see us be protected by laws that ensure a government can't victimise me. Of course, as a blogger that disagrees with the Government, I am probably more exposed than many. I don't expect a knock on the door at 3am any time soon, but having travelled around the USSR, Eastern Europe and China in the 1980's and 1990's I know exactly what being in a police state feels like and it really isn't pleasant.
Anyone looking at the state of the UK government at the moment surely would surely find it hard to make a case that we are doing a good job of running our own affairs. We are currently leaving the EU on 31st October and we still don't know what the Prime Minister wants a deal to look like. His chief adviser, Dominic Cummings is not elected and not even a member of the Conservative Party. He has sacked 21 long standing MP's many of whom have dedicated their lives to the Conservative Party. He has forced the Prime Ministers brother to conclude that he can't stand as an MP. He's forced the Conservatives chief whip in the Lords to resign. He's lost the Conservative Party their majority. His whole strategy is based on forcing a snap election that he believes Boris will romp on a wave of Brexit fervour. He's calculated that the UK electorate fear a Jeremy Corbyn government. That would be an interesting theory if Theresa May hadn't tried the theory out and lost her majority. There is a theory that Boris will do a deal with the Brexit Party. This hoovered up the UKIP vote, but that was less than 2% of the electorate in 2017. Any seat that elected a Labour MP in 2017 is just as likely to do so today. I don't see Corbyn getting a majority, but I do see the Lib Dems taking swathes of Tory seats. The loss of Ruth Davidson in Scotland as Tory Leader is likely to lead to a loss of seats there. My prediction is for a hung parliament with a coalition of 2-3 parties required to form a government. I suspect that the next PM may be neither Corbyn nor Boris. I had supposed that the remain element of the Tories may join some sort of government of National Unity, but Boris has purged them.
The main argument of Brexiteers that it is the will of the people to leave the UK is perhaps as illusory as every other claim. We are constantly reminded that 17.4 million people voted for Leave. The population of the UK was over 63 million in 2011, when the last census was taken. That means that 27.6% of the population voted for Brexit. Now some were too young, some did not qualify to vote because they were not UK nationals and some couldn't make their mind up. Since the referendum 2016, millions of young people who couldn't vote have come onto the electoral register. When we talk about democratic rights, what about them? They will have to live with the fallout for this for far longer than the strongly leave supporting older generation. When the UK joined the EEC in the 1970's the UK was known as the 'sick man of Europe'. The country was regularly in the grip of 'balance of payments crises' We made regular trips to the EMF to get bailouts to keep the country afloat. Our percentage of world trade was falling year by year. Whatever you may think of the EU, since the EEC became the EU, Thatcher signed the Single European act and Major signed the Maastricht treaty, the UK has done rather well. The right wing press was crowing about the Bank of England downgrading the damage that a 'No Deal' Brexit would do. It will only knock five percent off our GDP rather than the previous estimate of eight percent. As I mentioned, I don't accept the definition of 'No Deal'. I prefer the term chaotic exit. If you delve deeper, you will find that the Bank of England have simply said that is the most likely scenario, not the worst case. The bank, by nature is a very deeply conservative (small c) organisation. What does this mean? No government in history has ever previously proposed a policy which it's own central bank says will damage the economy so severely.
As I stated at the start of this blog, Boris doesn't seem to realise that he's negotiating a divorce. The only person I know who tried a 'No Deal' divorce was the ex husband of a work colleague. He announced that if his soon to be ex wife did not accept his demands (to come back and accept his boorish behaviour), he'd kill himself. He ended up alienating all of his friends, upsetting his children and being sectioned as he was at risk to himself. I saw him a few years later. He was very sheepish and spent half an hour boring me about how sorry he was that he'd acted like an arse. I wonder if, in a few years, when the dust has settled and Boris is back on HIGNFY we will see a similar act of contrition?
Am I alone in being terrified by the edge of the cliff the UK is facing at the end of October? I run my own business. It is a music studio and as we are in the leisure industry, we are the sector hit hardest by recession and times of financial hardship. I have run the studio for 40 years. In that period the only time that our turnover has not increased year on year was between 2008-12 after the global crash. Our customers cut their spending and we suffered big time. it coincided with a huge building project and played havoc with our budgets. The net result was that we couldn't really do what we wanted with our new studio complex. In business, survival is always the first issue. If I didn't have other business interests that supported the studi, it may well have done for us. Given that the studios are now in profit, it troubles me to think that having spent seven years rebuilding the business, it horrifies me to think that we my be plunged back into crisis by the mismanagement of the Brexit process by three different Conservative Prime Ministers in a row. For all of you telling me that "I'm being selfish because I'm putting my interests before the country", tell that to my staff. Depending on the scale of the chaos, we may have any manner of scenarios, from cancelling pay rises and bonuses, to redundancies and closure of the business. Now I hope that all this talk of 'Project Fear' is just that and however badly Brexit is mismanaged, it will have no effect on our business, but if you believe that, you'll believe anything. Thus far, we've seen 28% growth this year. If this were to continue, next April, we'll be able to give our staff a reasonable pay rise, to reward their efforts. Normally at this time I'd be planning the 2020 budget, but it is pointless at the moment. We run a lean ship, so there is little scope for savings. My guess is that every single small business is facing the same dilemma. Yesterday we went to see Madness with friends who run a Kitchen design business. They tell me that all of their customers have put large projects on hold, until they know whether they will still have jobs in November. Mill Hill is full of people working in the financial services sector and they are rightly worried that they won't have jobs. Why would you spend £30,000 on a new kitchen, when you might be signing on in two months?
The sad truth is that over three years after the vote, over five months since we were first meant to leave the EU and a couple of months before the latest deadline, no one has a clue what Brexit means. We have a buffoon of a Prime Minister, who is great at feelgood rhetoric, but is absolutely clueless about actually having a plan to make sure we can all still run our businesses, get the medical supplies and food we need and is in a state of denial about the predictions that his own civil servants are giving him. If we really were going to do a 'Hard Brexit' we should have been preparing for it from the day after the referendum. We should not have submitted Article 50 until we 100% knew we had a plan in place to mitigate the bad effects. As we've been in the EU for decades, there was no need to put our economy at risk by rushing. The argument from the hard Brexiteers is that if you don't rush, then we'd stay in forever. To me this is the argument of charlatans who simply don't understand that other people might suffer. The irony that Nigel Farage will get a tasty, protected EU pension as an MEP is not wasted on me.
The concept that we could do a trade deal with the USA is bonkers beyond belief. Donald Trump would want to see us lower our food standards, open the NHS up to US corporations and our countryside to US frackers. You may think this is marvellous, but the EU is our biggest market for food products and if we adopt US standards, we won't be able to sell into the EU, causing havoc for our farmers. My fear is that we'll become a dumping ground for sub standard US products. Every projection says that the £ will take a battering if we have a hard Brexit. It has already lost almost1/3rd of its value since the referendum. This is why so many products are more expensive. This will get worse.
I was listening to Jo Swinson on BBC Radio London this morning. She explained that if there is to be a no confidence motion and 'Government of National Unity' to negotiate an extension to Article 50 to see us through an election, then she didn't feel that Jeremy Corbyn would be the right person to lead it. She suggested Harriet Harman or Ken Clarke. Her reasoning is that neither have long term ambitions. My personal view is that Ken Clarke should be considered. As the job will be for a couple of months, I agree with Swinson that someone without long term ambitions would be the best placed person. Clarke has huge experience of government, which would seem to be very useful. An MP with no experience of the Civil Service is likely to be walked all over. When an MP is elected and knows they have five years to settle scores, the Civil service are more circumspect, but I honestly think they would shaft Corbyn if he was the 'Prime Minister of Last Resort'. I don't think Clarke would fall for that.
I actually think that if Corbyn said "for the good of the Country, we need a period of stability to sort the mess out" he'd win huge kudos and perhaps answer some critics who claim he is too narrow, too factional and too wrapped up in his own ideology. It is not unprecedented. The Labour party put Winston Churchill into power in 1940, at the time of the last existential crisis for the UK. When the war was won, Attlee won an election and founded the NHS. Sometimes doing the right thing and waiting is the right thing to do. I believe that any leader of a government of National Unity should be from the largest party and a figure that people from all parties can work with.
Don't get me wrong, in no other circumstances would I argue for the next Prime Minister to be a Conservative, but this is a very different scenario. Clarke would not be anything more than a safe pair of hands, until an election could be held and hopefully some degree of stable government could be put together.
The problem with all of this is that country is split 50/50. Whatever happens re Brexit will see a lot of people feeling very let down. I personally do not think that even after an election, with a stonking majority, either Boris Or Corbyn could heal this. How do we put the country back together again?
Well one of the biggest myths is that Remainers do not understand democracy, as they 'won't accept the referendum result'. The whole point about democracies is that you can change your mind, you can lose an election and a referendum and you don't have to change your mind. After the 1975 referendum on the Common Market, no one said that people who lost had to change their mind. They spent the next 40 years doing exactly what Remainers are now doing, telling the other side that they were wrong. The reason that Nigel Farage has a career is precisely because he didn't accept the previous referendum. The Brexiteers wheel out all manner of reasons why the 1975 referendum was not relevant. We were lied to, it was a long time ago, it was about the Common Market not the EU, etc. The bottom line is that in politics, the losing side is always bitter. We are not in 1934 Germany, where if you didn't agree with the Nazi's (who came to power via an election, political turmoil and a coalition rather like Mr Johnson, - and that is pretty much where the similarities end) you were sent to a concentration camp. Here, you grouch and you campaign for another chance.
What the Remain side have never done is made their case properly. They never pointed out that the 'Single Market' was something Margaret Thatcher passionately fought for. She hated the political side of the EU, but recognised the need for free trade. They seem allergic to mentioning that the money we pay the EU enables us to have common standards that allow our products to be sold anywhere in the EU. They don't mention that EU fishing policies have seen the North Sea recover its fishing stocks. I've never been an EU enthusiast, it's just that I've not seen any properly argued case that leaving the EU will be in the best interests of the UK. There are arguments for all manner of single issues that you can demonstrate that the EU is not particularly good, but that is very different from a coherent argument that UK would be better off outside the EU. I've lots of Brexit supporting friends who will tell me things like "we don't want Brussels telling us what sort of sausages we can eat". These sort of arguments show just how well the Mail and the Sun have managed to convince the UK population that such matters are of national importance. Last time I looked, we can still buy tasteless sausages in Tesco's (other supermarkets are available). Then there are those who say "We'll be better off under GATT 24 WTO rules". Sadly, I've yet to have anyone who understands economics explain how this would work in the real world. If this was true, surely by now a group of senior economists would have explained how this could happen. This is usually met with a response that "THE EXPERTS ARE ALWAYS WRONG". This is the same logic that has made people abandon MMR jabs and is why we are now seeing a Measles epidemic. They say that "look at the predictions of doom after the referendum". Well if you look at the exchange rate of the pound, you will see just how much damage has been done to the UK.
This is not ta sign of a wealthy, prosperous and successful country. It is a sign of a country that has made a very bad decision. This is based purely on market sentiment. This tells us that the rest of the world does not want to invest in the UK. Every dip on the graph has been when a Hard Brexit has seemed likely.
I don't think anyone advocating Brexit or Remain should be described by the other side as 'Traitors', the language terrifies me. It seems to me that some demagogic figures are ratcheting up this sort of language to try and scare the other side. I believe in sane, rational discussion. A UKIP supporting Brexiteer living in Burnt Oak has the same right to his view as a Lib Dem remainer in Mill Hill. If both are truly patriotic, they would reach our to each other, find common ground and some sort of way to get over this mess. I can't see how at this moment, but I suggest that Twitter is not really helpful in this case. I can't see how when something is a binary choice such as Brexit that divides people so much, and there is a 50/50 split this can be done.
There are some things that are clear. London and Scotland are staunchly remain and the rest of the mainland isn't. Northern Ireland is in deep trouble unless we stay in the Customs Union. The country is not prepared for a hard Brexit. Parliament is aanti Brexit and the Civil Service is anti Brexit. Foreign press owners are pro Brexit. Donald Trump, who hates the EU is Pro Brexit. Vladimir Putin is also pro Brexit. When it comes to treason for a UK citizen, pushing for the breakup of the UK used to be viewed as a treasonous activity. So when people who support a policy that is supported by foreign powers who don't have the UK's best interests at heart, a policy which could result in the disintegration of the United Kingdom, start calling people who believe the opposite traitors, maybe, they need to sit down and have a moment of quiet reflection.
One final thought. Just suppose Boris gets his way and prorogues Parliament to force a hard Brexit. There are two realistic scenarios that may scupper the "best trade deal ever" that Trump is promising. The first is that Jeremy Corbyn wins the election that will inevitably follow. If you think that won't happen, just check the headlines from the day Theresa May called that election. The second is that it is not entirely impossible that the Democrats will win the election in the US next year. I suspect that they will take a totally different view to Trump, especially if the Irish get shafted by us.
Never mind though, we have signed a trade protocol with Luxembourg.
The London Music scene is facing a huge threat from plans for a hard Brexit from the EU. Due to the UK departure from the Customs Union and new rules on free movement of people, working and tax arrangements, musicians deriving income from the EU, be it through sales/licensing, merchandising and touring need to be aware of what will be required.
For many bands, operating on tight margins, this will present a massive challenge and will most definitely have a big impact on the London music scene.
Many UK based artists and bands rely on earnings from touring in the the EU, selling merchandising and playing gigs which enable them to make ends meet We have been asked to share the official guidance document with our customers. This is the governments advice for musicians who live, work or tour in the EU concerning what legal changes will be required following a hard Brexit scenario.
There are many changes that UK based musicians and UK citizens living/working as musicians in the EU need to be aware of. This is recently released government guidance. There will also be implcations for UK acts which feature EU citizens. This document, put together by UK Music (the industry wide organisation supporting musicians) contains recently issued government guidance.
As No-deal Brexit will pose an immediate challenge to the ability of bands to tour and perform across Europe, it is important for musicians to be fully aware of these rules. For many, touring in the EU is an important source of revenue, vital to ensure that musicians have an income stream capable of supporting a career.
Of particular relevance is that when touring in Europe it is likely equipment, instruments and gear will have to be declared on a customs document called a Carnet.
The Save London Music campaign will share all information we are made aware of in updates and Keep up to date with whats going on at our Facebook page.
I have long been a supporter of Friends of The Earth. The organisation has been campaigning for decades for environmental protection. I was disturbed to read a report on their website detailing the possible effects of a Hard Brexit to the environment. You can read the full report here.
Here are a few extracts that I believe are of particular relevance in the Borough of Barnet. Putting aside the rights and wrongs of Brexit for one second, even the most hard line Brexiteer must concede that the May Govt has completely botched the negotiations process. Long before they decided to invoke a 2 year period for Article 50, they should have started serious planning to address all of the issues raised by a Hard Brexit. If we had a robust plan for this in place, then we would have had a better negotiating position for a good deal and a safe option for crashing out. As no proper planning has been done, the UK is over a barrel.
My view was that when the country voted for Brexit, the govt should have set up a Royal commission, to sit for 1 year, to fully analyse the impact of Brexit and develop a coherent strategy to proceed. When this had reported on the issues to be addressed, then we would have been in a position to submit the Article 50 letter. We should have done it in a September, when our energy requirements are lowest and our locally produced fruit and veg are at their highest, so that shortages of imports would be easier to manage. If May had called her election after the Royal Commission reported, she'd have had five years to execute a coherent plan. I support Remain, but I believe that the 17.4 million Brexit voters have been completely failed by a lack of leadership.
What the FoI report says that is relevent to Barnet.
No deal pushes us to burn and dump mountains of waste instead of recycling
The UK is one of the EU’s biggest waste exporters
For years, we’ve been offloading our waste mainly on to Europe. And for that reason, we don’t have a well-developed setup in place to encourage recycling and reuse.
No deal could mean all that waste getting stuck in the UK – at least in the short term – where it would end up buried in sprawling rubbish dumps or burnt in polluting incinerators.
Faced with a build-up of rubbish, we wouldn’t have time to adapt and create a more eco-friendly way of managing waste in the UK. Barnet Eye Comment - Waste processing in Barnet is already in chaos. This will make the situation far worse.
No deal is bad news for wildlife and protected habitats
Back in 2005 the UK was allowing the trade of protected species collected elsewhere in Europe. It contravened the law, so the EU put a stop to it
If we leave without a deal, we won’t be able to challenge the government for breaking environmental laws, including ones that protect nature. That is, until a watchdog is set up. Who sets that up? The government. And as explained above, we don’t know when that will happen or how effective it will be.
Barnet Eye Comment - Barnet has an appalling record of protecting wildlife habitats. Without the EU protection, this will only get worse.
No deal allows for lower food and animal-welfare standards
Under a no-deal Brexit, any present or future UK government will be able to regress our environmental standards. There will be no international agreement in place to prevent that.
At the same time, chaotically falling out of the EU would leave us scrambling for trade deals.
Potential trading partners would heap huge pressure on us to accept products that don’t make the grade. This could include meat from animals raised in more-environmentally-damaging ways.
The government is already facing calls from US trade negotiators to lower our food standards by accepting chlorinated chicken
Worse still, poorer-quality imports would undercut British producers – leading to pressure for us to adopt the same lower-quality practices here in the UK.
Barnet Eye Comment - Barnet has farms and food producers based locally. Intensive farming techniques will trash the local green space used for farming, but this will become essential for farmers to compete. This can only be bad for them. I don't want my kids to eat chlorinated chicken thank you very much.
No deal increases the risk of unsafe chemicals getting into the environment
As a member of the EU, we’re protected by REACH. This is the most advanced system in the world for ensuring chemicals are safe for human health and the environment.
Without a deal and a handover period to spend time replacing REACH, we'd be in the dark.
The day after a no-deal Brexit, a company could launch a new chemical and we wouldn’t know what to do with it or be able to properly regulate it.
We wouldn’t have access to the vast amount of research in the REACH database. Without that knowledge it will be much easier for businesses to win legal challenges against bans on chemicals – such as pesticides linked to harming bees.
The REACH database covers 21,000 chemicals. It’s highly unlikely the UK will be able to replicate it on its own.
A less-effective UK system would be more open to abuse with companies able to sell substances in the UK that are banned by the EU.
Barnet Eye Comment - We believe there should be tighter control on chemicals, not a complete free for all. The risks of this are immense.
You may have noticed that the Barnet Eye was rather quiet last week. I was away in France and I had a social media detox. I had far better things to do, such as enjoy myself! What it did do was focus my mind on various issues around how we should personally be preparing for #Brexit. Of course, none of us know how it will work out, however for such a major change to the British economy, we can look at what is likely to happen and make sensible precautions. I do not subscribe to the school of thought that Brexit will be like a Zombie Apocalypse, although it makes a great blog Title (I must say that Theresa May's negotiations are starting to make me wonder). I simply take the view that when there are rain clouds on the horizon, you buy an umbrella and don't trust Michael Fish when he says it will be sunny in Mill Hill, but showers in Burnt Oak.
Here is my list of sensible precautions for both remainers and leavers. Please add a comment at the bottom if I've missed any.
1. Check your family tree to see if you can get an EU passport. If you only go on holiday every six years to Ibiza, this is probably not worth doing, but if you travel to the EU on a regular basis, it may spare you much grief at immigration desks. I have an Irish Grandfather, so I am definitely considering it.
2. Consider getting a fixed rate mortgage. Interest rates have risen this week for only the second time in a decade. They are at a historical low. Typically they rise when the economy is doing well. This is because demand outstrips supply and so prices start rising. By raising interest rates, the Bank of England damps down demand and encourages people to take advantage of generous rates for savers. Traditionally when the economy tanks, the Bank lowers rates to boost demand. Brexit is likely to have a completely different effect. In a no deal scenario, the cost of imports from the EU and exports to the EU will immediately go up by 10% due to tariffs. This will mean that everything from the EU will get more expensive. Customers for British goods in the EU will suddenly find that our products are less competitive. Whatever happens, there will be a major rebalance of our economy. If you believe Leavers, this will lead to a massive boom as we find new export markets and find new trade deals. If you believe Remainers, then the bank will have to raise interest rates to support sterling. In either scenario rates will rise. Of course they may not, but at least with a fixed rate mortgage, you will have some idea of what your household bills will be in the short to medium term.
3. Buy a BMW tomorrow. I'm not a BMW driver, it's a Ford Galaxy for me, but if I was and I was looking at upgrading my car in the next 18 months, I'd do it now. If there is a no deal scenario, you may find that your new car suddenly costs a great deal more. We will not get a better deal with the EU than the one we've got, so this is a relatively risk free precaution if expensive German cars float your boat and you want a new one next year.
4. Buy a holiday villa in Tuscany. Again, this isn't a piece of advice I'll be taking, but following Brexit it is likely to become harder to purchase property in the EU. So if you are considering such a move, and it's not just Tuscany, it could be France, Ireland or Spain, then I'd recommend doing it as soon as possible. On the subject of Holidays, book a 3 week holiday in Orlando USA the week before Brexit. If it goes really tits up, claim Political Asylum in the USA, they can't actually legally refuse you, as under their constitution the UK is viewed as a hostile power. Claim Theresa May's government is trying to murder you. They have to grant you asylum I ( I am not making this up).
5. Prepare for food shortages. It was rather controversially announced that the British Government had started to stockpile food. In a doomsday scenario, it is reported that trucks could be snarled up at customs checks at the channel leading to empty shelves. Whilst this is most likely to hit seasonable perishable goods such as tomatoes, strawberries and danish bacon, it is always possible that this triggers frantic buying of other key items. I compiled a quick list of items I'd have a few weeks supply of. These are non perishable, so in the worst case scenario, you'd simply use them up over the course of a few weeks anyway.
You can also subscribe to Alaska Granny's Youtube channel for hints on how to Stockpile food. Not sure I totally agree with her strategy (Why do survivalists never mention toilet roll which is an essential part of the process of eating), but she's far more of an expert than me in such matter. I do take the view that there are plenty of calories in beer and wine, so I was a tad upset to see she'd missed these esssentials. Whilst they may not help you defeat a Zombie apocalypse, they are essential to surviving this governments attempts to chart a path through Brexit!
6. Refresh the wine cellar with your favourite French, Spanish and Italian wines. This is another area likely to be hit by tariffs and queues at customs. A well stocked wine cellar is clearly a great asset in times of trial and tribulation. On the good news side, we may well see whisky and beer become cheaper (unless you like Bushmills).
7. Have that holiday of a lifetime now. Have you ever planned to have a luxury holiday at a European destination? If you have and you have the money, I'd strongly suggest you have it now. If the Leavers are right and the economy booms sending the pound through the roof, you'll soon be able to afford another one. If the Remainers are right and the economy goes belly up, then at least you've ticked that off your bucket list.
8. Get a full medical MOT. One of the more alarming suggestions is that the UK will stop cooperating on radioactive materials. This may mean that all manner of medical procedures cannot source the necessary isotopes. This could cost you your life, if the NHS can't source the required quantities for your treatment, so better get anything done sooner rather than later. And even if the scaremongering is nonsense, it is always worth getting screened for the major killers, so this one is a sensible precaution anyway.
9. Buy Gold. Don't be like Gordon Brown. Silly of Gordon thought that selling off all the gold reserves just before a major crash hit the world economy was a very clever move. Whilst poor old Gordon had no inkling that there would be a major shock to the world economic system, you don't have to be a genius to figure out that Brexit could cause all manner of stresses to the UK economy. I wouldn't put all my money in gold, as eggs should be spread across many baskets, but as it is historically the safe house of finance when times are troubled, it is certainly worth putting some of your investments into precious metals. I'd say that with the likes of Putin, Trump and the Mullah's in Iran, there are not exactly a shortage of reasons to be cautious with your investments (Please note that I'm not a qualified financial adviser, so I am just expressing a personal opinion here).
10. Give your loved ones a really amazing Xmas this year (or whatever winter festival you usually celebrate). Xmas 2018 will be the last Xmas we have in the EU. Our turkey always comes from Norfolk, so no worries there but we usually have a few bottles of nice French wines and Brandy. We get presents from all over the world and we rely on our income from our studio business to pay for it all. It may well be that in a years time, we are all saying "What was all the #Brexit fuss about? it has turned out fine". If that is the case, then you simply had an amazing Xmas (or whatever). But just suppose the economy tanks, then at least you'll be able to sit back and say "I'm glad we had a great Christmas whilst times were good".
It is not "being part of project fear" to plan, to make arrangements and to work to mitigate the effects of potential global problems. Here is my survival list. I would recommend four weeks supplies. If you have much more, the neighbours will probably come around and rob you
60 litres of bottled water
4 bags of sugar
8 Large packs of Pastapasta
28 tins of fish and meat
6 packs of stock cubes
10 p 10 frozen trout if you prefer
20 frozen steaks (per person - You only live once - Substitue 30 Quornburgers per person for veggies)
herbs & pepper (dried garlic, salt, pepper, dried chillies and other things that make slop edible)
2 tubs of powdered milk
14 jars of Pasta sauces
20 large chocolate bars (stored under lock and key if you have kids)
30 tins of Dog/Cat/Fish Food (or appropriate given Rover's diet) (Delete as appropriate)
30 Toilet Rolls (The last thing you want to run out of)
6 tubes of toothpaste (your mates will nick them when it runs short)
30 bottles of fine red wine
124 pints of bottle Guinness
If there are power outages then use the Steaks and Trout to have a barbeque, your friends will appreciate it. Tell them to bring their own plonk!
I have to confess, this list was not entirely my own work. Six months before the financial crash, a friend in the know advised me to sell all of my bank shares. If I did, I'd have had a quarter of a million quid. I didn't listen. RBS shares dropped from £5 to 10p. Lloyds also tanked. I asked the same friend about #Brexit. He said "It is unprecedented. We don't know what Brexit means, we don't know how it will affect the economy and there are no economic models to base any projections on. So I said "What are you doing?". He said "Getting an Irish Passport so I can work in Germany, I've taken out a fixed rate mortgage so I know my outgoings, I've got a new BMW before they get tariffs slapped on them, I'm buying a villa in Tuscany, so I've got a bolt hole if it all goes wrong here, we're going to restock the larder in February just in case and we've done several wine shopping trips to France to restock the cellar, we've booked an amazing holiday at a very exclusive Italian resort that we've been meaning to do for years, we've both had a full medical MOT just in case there are issues with medicines etc, I've liquidated 15% of my portfolio and put it into precious metals and we are planning an amazing Xmas, just in case".
And then he said "There really is no downside. If the world goes pop, no one hates the Italians and we'll have enough gold to live comfortably until it sorts itself out, besides gold is relatively cheap right now, just like it was when Gordon flogged it all. If it doesn't, I've got a new car, a lovely villa, a well stocked wine cupboard and enough tins of beans and pasta to see the kids through Uni".
For me, I don't think we'll be buying a BMW (a BMX bike maybe?), or a villa in Tuscany. The wine cellar sounds good though! We always have a pretty good Xmas and we've booked a holiday to Australia in October. We are also going to making a large supply of pickles and chutneys, to augment the pasta and tins of sardines.
It becomes clearer every day that David Cameron has shafted the UK. Cameron and the establishment never expected an 'Out' vote so they negligently never put on the table what an out vote entailed.
Now a bunch of right wing fanatics have set about cobbling together a set of policies to indulge their little Englanders fantasies, with no regard to the good of the country. Theresa May has pulled off the seemingly impossible task of losing two #PMQ's in a row to Jeremy Corbyn, managing to make Corbyn seem like a statesman of gravitas, whilst she flounders to deliver scripted gags that aren't funny.
The country voted to 'leave the EU'. The trouble is that no one knows what that actually means for business or for private citizens. May has made the problem worse by committing to complete the process by the spring of 2019 (if you believe her Tory party speech).
Now none of that would be a problem if there was a strategy or a plan, but there isn't. We don't know what the priorities are. May seems to think free movement of labour being abolished is the key, but she won't let Parliament vote on this.
What we do know is that the pound is sinking like the Titanic in a sea of indecision.
May is being quite utterly stupid. The whole crisis is of her making. She should have set up a Royal Commission to examine our relationship with Europe and produce a reasoned report detailing the shape of our new solution. She should have given the commission 18 months to conclude its work, then given Parliamet a vote on it. Once this was adopted, the public should have been given the opportunity in a referendum to endorse it.
Then we would serve article 60 and enact it. No arguments. But that would be sane and rational, wouldn't it. If the Brexiters are so convinced they have a mandate and they drew it up, surely they would believe voters would love it?
I thought I'd do a little study on how the a Brexit decision may affect the local Mill Hill economy. Being a layman with an interest in economic, clearly I am not the font of all knowledge, but in the absence of anything better, here are a few points of interest.
Of course the vast majority of these journeys are made by people with jobs in central London. There are some interesting statistics about London employment on the Mayor of Londons website. The City of London, destination for many commuters from Mill Hill had a total of 414,600 people employed in 2014. Of these 162,600 were employed in financial services and 106,000 were deemed "professional" (ie Lawyers, accountants etc). Both of these sectors are likely to be vulnerable to severe pressure from the effects of Brexit. Many foreign financial institutions are likely to review their operations in the event of a Brexit vote and none have stated that a UK outside of the EU is more likely to be attractive. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan has gone on record as saying that up to 4,000 UK jobs could go. Whilst some Brexit commentators are sceptical and some say that the UK would be more attractive as it would "open up world markets", there is no actual evidence of this. Presumably if this was true, some organisations would have gone public and said so. So far the only well known companies to support Brexit are Wetherspoons and Dyson. Neither have a presence in Mill Hill. I suppose that you could make a case that in a recession, cut price pubco's sucha s Wetherspooons would do a bit better, as drinkers save money. As James Dyson has outsourced production to the outside of the UK and the EU, it seems that his company are unlikely to save the UK economy.
In 2010, the Financial services and Professional services industries in the City of London had 151,000 and 87,000 employees respectively, so there has been healthy job growth since the Coalition govt came was elected in 2010. Mill Hill is an extremely popular location for such people.as shown by the figures for commuting. If the financial services and professional services industries are damaged by Brexit, this will have a huge impact on Mill Hill and The Broadway.
When people lose jobs, spending on the cafe culture which has developed in the Broadway will be the first thing to be hit. If well paid jobs are not available in the City, then the boom we've had in property prices will come to a juddering halt. People will be left woth negative equity. Not everyone will see this as entirely negative. Some of us worry abut over development and gentrification. First time buyers may well be more than happy to see Mill Hill Property prices tumble. As most current Mill Hill residents are owner occupiers, I suspect that this will not be generally popular.
If we look at employment in the London Borough of Barnet, the three biggest sectors are Health (19,400) retail (16,400) and Education (16,000). How are these likely to be affected in Mill Hill? Well we are losing a substancial number of jobs in Health anyway, as the National Institute for Medical research moves out. We are already seeing shortages of nurses and other medical professionals. A Brexit will make it harder for the NHS in Barnet to attract staff. Many people working in hospitals and doctors surgeries are EU migrants. A common argument made by Brexit supporters is that the NHS cannot support the current levels of migration. This ignores the fact that most EU migrants are working age, healthy people who are moving to fill jobs. There is no evidence at all that it is EU migrants that are causing stress on the NHS. Removing the ability of the NHS to recruit EU nationals freely, without language tests and bureacracy will only damage the ability of the NHS to provide services. If the NHS is unable to perform routine minor procedures, this will hamper the productivity of the UK workforce. One of the reasons the NHS is such a national assett is that it ckeeps our workforce realatively healthy and productive. If positions in the NHS are unfilled, this will also reduce the amount of money being spent in High Streets.
This brings us on to the retail sector. This is the second highest employer in the Borough. If the financial services sector sneezes, local retailers catch a cold. Many retailers are already struggling with online competition. A Brexit will only increase pressures. It is likely that tarrifs on products will rise, Brexit supporters have not been able to explain what tarrifs will be, other than to suggest that everyone will fall over themselves to give us better deals than they've done with the EU. Of course it is possible this will happen, but I would not bet my mortgage on it. Retail is likely to suffer. I genuinely fear for what this will do to High Streets.
The third sector is the Education sector. Schools are currently creaking as they struggle to cope with the huge influx of pupils as a result of the recent mass immigration. If immigration ground to a halt, we'd very soon see a sudden reduction in the requirements for teachers and other staff in education. Again this will depress the local economy.
If we take James Dysons argument that a Brexit will improve manufacturing industries in the UK, how will this affect the UK. There are 2,900 jobs in manufacturing in the London Borough of Barnet. If we had a 20% rise in this figure (although I have no idea where the new factories would go), that would be 580 extra jobs. Interestingly the stats show that there was a 400 increase in manufacturing jobs in Barnet between 2013 and 2014, so I guess that the argument that the EU is damaging the sector is perhaps wide of the mark.
We have also got people such as Nigel Farage saying that it doesn't matter if the £ falls if we leave the EU. How will this affect the UK. It will have two effects. The price of UK products will rise. This is because other countries will find UK projects cheaper, so demand will increase and force prices up. It will also make the price of imports rise, because the £ will buy less. This will again hit retailers. This is without tarrifs.
The Brexit campaign are making several assumptions in their message about the economy. These are
1. That the majority of economists are wrong about the effects of Brexit, whilst people such as comedian John Cleese and the Leader of the BNP Nick Griffen are right.
2. That Bankers such as Jamie Dimon at JP Morgan are simply lying or bluffing about the effects on their business of a Brexit.
3. That every country in the world will have a team of civil servants ready to dish out preferential trade deals to the UK if we pull out of the EU.
4. That we'll be able to seamlessly build a massive new Whitehall bureacracy from scratch to vet requests from EU nationals to move to the UK.
How reasonable are these assumptions. Of course people can choose to listen to John Cleese or Nigel Farage on the issue of economics in preference to professional economists. Personally I would think that this is lunacy.
As to the concept that Jamie Dimon would lie about how Brexit will affect his business and its operation. Some people believe that banks are Satan incarnate, but given that the Financial services industry is what keeps the UK economy afloat, I find this a very puerile argument. Dimon will act in the interests of his shareholders and what is good for his business or he gets the sack. It is highly unlikely that a roaring UK economy would be bad for JP Morgan, therefore he must have concluded that Brexit will be bad for the UK and for his company.
So does every other country in the world want to negotiate a new trade deal with the Uk at preferential terms? I'm not aware of any that have said they will. If Brexit campaigners had a list of countries saying "yes, this is something we want" I'd trust them. They haven't, so I don't
On the issue of a Points system for EU immigrants. Setting up systems and bureacracies is hellishly expensive and problematic. The idea that a points system for EU citizens could be set up overnight is clearly nonsense (this is what Brexit are proposing). Can you name a govt IT system that has been delivered on time and on budget? A system to process applications from EU migrants will need offices, staff (with linguistic qualifications), computer systems and all the associated backup (HR, cleaners, etc). Presumably if we are going to test peoples language skills as suggested, we will have to set up offices all over Europe to process these applications. Oddly when I suggested this to Brexiteers, they suggested that this was unnecessary to implement a points system. When asked how applications would be processed and verified, the answer was simply "it can be done with eisting staff", which implies that there are thousands of civil servants doing nothing.
So how will it affect the economy of Mill Hill. All of the evidence I've seen tells me that Brexit would be catastrophic locally. There are parts of the country which may well do better out of a Brexit. Presumably sectors such as oil and energy would do well. There is an argument that if the £ falls manufacting & exports will improve. This is assuming that no punitive tariffs are applied. But this is unlikely to affect the City,which is the main employer for many people in Mill Hill.
