Winning in Mill Hill Ward, one vote at a time

Back in 2018, after the local elections, I had a beer with my fellow Mill Hill Lib Dem candidate Richard Logue. We'd run a good campaign in difficult circumstances. We'd more than doubled the Lib Dem vote, in face of an onslaught from both the Conservatives who ran a strong anti Corbyn campaign and the Momentum left who got a big response from the local left vote, who both had a good go at Mill Hill. 

We discussed the prospects for 2022. At the time, Theresa May was the Tory Leader, Jeremy Corbyn was the Labour leader, the Barnet Tories had just won a big increase in seats on the Council. When you work your socks off to no avail, it can be a bit demoralising. Neither of us predicted that in 2022 the landscape would be so different. We both felt that locally, the Corbyn factor would weigh heavy for a very long time. Theresa May was seen as a bumbling leader, who had seen awful local council results, although Barnet bucked the trend everywhere. 

Richard asked me if he thought the Lib Dems had any chance in 2022. I replied that it was a long way away.We didn't know how much things would change. I said "All we have to do is persuade one Conservative a day to switch to the Lib Dems and we'll walk it".  When you talk about switching, 1,460 voters, that's a hell of a lot, but it's only one day. So where do you start?

If you want to win as an opposition candidate, you have to persuade people that you can make a difference. I don't stand because I want a career in Politics, I do it because I want a better Mill Hill for residents. I have written over 300 emails to the council in that time, on subjects from enforcement of building controls, the environment, green belt violations and planning applications, problems with street lighting. Not to impress people, just because it's right. 

When we've been out canvassing, people have raised issues, I've been able to show evidence of work I've been doing over the last four years on the issues. Last night, a lady I was canvassing on Bittacy Rise told me she was disillusioned with politics. I told her I understood and asked why. She listed a whole list of things, most of which I'd been in a long running dialogue with the council about. Former Mill Hill Councillor Jeremy Davies was out with me and explained how the councillors could have sorted the issues out, had they been so minded. That was another voter who's mind we'd changed. 

I've no idea how many people will have changed as a result of such chats, through reading this blog, through the chats that I have in M&S, Iceland and Tesco's, or whilst walking the dog in the Broadway.  What I do know is that our canvass returns are telling a different story to 2018. In some ways, the 2014 elections were a better baseline for assessing the Tory base vote. There was no Corbyn bogeyman for most residents. 

Mill Hill Conservative vote 2014

Mill Hill (3 seats)

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	John Hart*	2,058	41.9	-6.1
	Conservative	Val Duschinsky	1,936	39.4	-3.1
	Conservative	Sury Khatri*	1,864	38.0	-5.1

As you can see, you usually need 1,800-2,000 votes to win in Mill Hill. My gut feeling is that the Tories will be 25% down on that year. The Lib Dems didn't really run a strong campaign that year. I was not a member at the time. This time it is different. We are hearing tales from disaffected Tory voters of them giving Tory Telelphone canvassers a flea in their ear. 

This year I feel strong parallels with what happened in 1994, when the Lib Dems came from third place to win. It seems to me that Boris Johnson's regime is even more unpopular than John Major was in 1994.

Mill Hill ward results 1994 Council elections

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal Democrats	Sheila Gottsche	1,836	38.7	+27.3
	Liberal Democrats	Jeremy Davies	1,830	38.6	+28.8
	Liberal Democrats	Wayne Casey	1,817	38.3	+28.9
	Conservative	John Hart*	1,795	37.8	-15.5
	Conservative	Jane Ellison*	1,781	37.5	-17.8
	Conservative	Peter Holland	1,701	35.8	-18.7

Yesterday we saw yet another twist. As we were walking up Engle Park, a lady approached us. She asked what we thought of MP's watching Porn in Parliament. I'd actually not heard the story, as I'd been working all day. My response was "I run a company and I'd sack anyone doing that whilst working for me, it is unprofessional". After she wandered off, I asked Jeremy what that was all about. He said "You've not seen the news have you?". What was worse was that the MP was doing this whilst stood next to a female Tory MP. That lecherous MP certainly did my days work for me yesterday. Another Lady, who was doing her garden as we passed stoped me and said said "I've always voted Conservative, I'd never vote Labour, but I know it is my duty to vote, so I will fill out my postal vote when I get home and vote for you". She confided that she usually posted the vote off straight away, but just couldn't bring herself to this time. She mentioned that this latest scandal scandal had tipped her into our camp. She said "Do you think they (tory MP's) are all like that?". I replied "No, I actually think most are not and they would be horrified, but there clearly are enough who are for him to think it was OK". Her reponse was telling "I hope that you lot wipe the floor with them and they take a good, long, hard look at themselves and sort themselves out". This was perhaps the strongest resposne I've had so far. 

Three weeks ago, I felt that the mountain was maybe a bit too high for us in Mill Hill. Campaigns can tempt you to get wildly over optimistic, but I genuinely feel that this time it's different. The tides have changed. The wind is blowing in a different direction. The only thing that will derail our campaign is apathy. Like 1994, it will be tight. Please vote. 

Nick Clegg judged to have won Leader debate

It's 23:54 on Thursday night an I'm watching Sky News analysis of the Leaders debate. It seems that the instant polls have decided that Nick Clegg won the debate. The pundits seem surprised by this result. I saw Nicks speech to the Lib Dem conference in Birmingham recently. He also did a question and answer session. I'm not surprised at all. I wasn't surprised when Vince Cable won the Chancellor debate either.

Tories rattled as Guido loses the plot

There was an intriguiging post on the Guido Fawkes blog. It details how the Conservative party have become rather rattled at the Lib Dems sniffing around some of their candidates expenses claims as local councillors.


To quote Guido -

The holier than now Liberals are attempting to drag candidates into the expenses scandal before they are even MPs. Doing it covertly through personal email addresses even though an FOI request is an FOI request wherever it comes from.

Cowley Street better hope CCHQ don’t retaliate with some FOI requests concerning their PPCs and intriguing leaflet printing financing.

 
Well you know what. I think it's rather good that Councillors expenses are being investigated (all Councillors). I'd rather like them to all be available on-line for all to see. If the Lib-Dems are doing this, maybe a few dodgy Tory candidates will be weeded out. I'd be quite happy to see the Tories do the same to Lib Dems (or Labour) Councillors if they've been fiddling their expenses. I may have got this wrong, but it seems to me that Guido's post is some sort of veiled threat "Don't poke around our expenses and we won't poke around your leaflet printing financing". If that is Guido's intention, I think he's losing the plot. Letting dodgy politicians get away with fiddling, dodgy accounting or anything else which involves public money is despicable. If Guido thinks it's OK, then he has lost all credibility as an independent blogger.
 
I wonder if the Lib Dems have posted one of these requests for the Hendon Conservative PPC and the Finchley and Golders Green Conservative PPC, who are both Barnet Councillors, for the last 4 years expenses. I sincerely hope so. If nothing comes up, then that would reassure everyone very much and we'd all be very happy. I'd happily post the info here, whatever the result.

First Capital Connect Passenger Bulletin : "Up Yours Matey!"

********** Important Update 2 *************
Just checking the stats and noticed a few people in Westminster have been looking at this blog today. I wonder if this has anything to do with Lord Adonis suddenly deciding to criticise First Capital Connect on the BBC - http://www.facebook.com/group.php?v=wall&gid=2239285772 - ??????
********** End of Update 2 ****************

********** Important Update ***************
I've noticed a large number of hits from the I hate First Capital Connect Website. I've put a link to this and a couple of other relevant groups in the sidebar. If you are disattisfied please sign the No 10 petition. There is an election coming up and if enough people sign it, then they may take note. As of today there are 2,650 signatures. I will provide regular updates on this
********** End of Update *****************


First Group, the company which operates the Thameslink service issued a financial update yesterday. This is the company which has been completely unable to run the service listed in it's timetable for several months. Here's the key statement from the update.

"We are encouraged by the performance of our rail division which continued to deliver growth despite the clear effects of the recession on the UK's rail industry," chief executive Moir Lockhead said in a statement.

Here is the performance stats from their own website :-

 13 Dec-9 Jan            62.8%
 15 Nov-12 Dec         84.1%
 18 Oct-14 Nov          82.1%
 20 Sep-17 Oct           86.8%
 23 Aug-19 Sep          93.3%
 26 Jul-22 Aug           90.8%
 28 Jun-25 Jul            87.7%
 31 May - 27 Jun       91.3%

As you can see, Moir Lockhead, the bloke who runs this lamentable company is "encouraged by the performance" of the shambolic travesty of a company he's in charge of. Could this be because he trousers over three quarters of a million quid a year in "compensation".

Having completely failed to do his job, how can he stick a finger up at his customers so crassly. It is clear to me that there is only one solution. Strip FIRST Group of this and all of their other rail franchises. Lockhead clearly doesn't understand what is expected of someone who is charged with running a rail company. As I predicted previously, the disruption has had no negative effect on the finances of this company. The only people to suffer are the long suffering passengers. I could not believe that First Group think they are doing well. It is time for the Government to step in and take proper action. Gordon Brown has an opportunity to take decisive action and show that he is a tough leader. How can he not take action? Transport Secretary Lord Adonis must take action or resign. This article in "The Argus" sadly shows that Adonis is completely detached from reality. Adonis seems keener to make excuses for this lamentable company than to actually do anything for the hard pressed commuters. I fully agree with Lib Dem Peer Lord McNally, who I heard on BBC London demanding action against First Group. According to the Argus  :-

Liberal Democrat peers leader Lord McNally, speaking from the backbenches, had urged the Transport Secretary to consider whether franchise operator First Capital Connect was meeting its obligations following a series of problems.

Not for the first time in relation to this dispute, it seems to me that only the Lib Dems are taking the concerns of the travelling public seriously. It is Lord Adonis job to sort this sort of problem out. It is clear to me that he's just not interested.

If you are a Cameron Conservative vote Lib Dem in Barnet

There was a fascinating article by David Cameron in The Observer on Sunday. Cameron talks about various policy initiatives which he's introduced (and I suspect that many of his party would rather die than actually implement).

As I read the article, I wondered whether any of our local Tory councillors have ever listened to a single word their Leader actually says.

He speaks about how both parties oppose the third runway at Heathrow. As we all know the Lib Dems have been against this for many a year, the Tories? Lets just say, I doubt Maggie Thatcher would have jumped on this bandwagon. Cameron talks about the Tories and the Lib Dems commitment to the environment and alternative clean energy. Again this is something that David Cameron has come rather late in the day to. Old Millhillians such as me will remember that for many years, if you wanted to recycle your newspapers you left them at a house in Flower Lane. They used to collect them and sell the paper for recycling. The cash raised was used to fund the local Liberal party. Cameron talks about the shared commitment to civil liberties. I well remember the Tories implementing section 28 legislation.

The most striking thing Cameron says is this :-

For many years now, we've both been arguing for a radical power shift in our country away from big government and to individuals and communities. That's why we worked closely together on the Sustainable Communities Act to devolve power and introduce greater transparency over government spending.

Which rather nicely brings us to my point.

Nationally, Cameron Conservatives talk up "Green Transport" and better railways, instead of air travel. Locally Mayor Brian Coleman insults the campaigners for the very green Brent Cross Light Rail scheme, which would link the Borough of Barnet with Heathrow, mainly using disused and freight only rail tracks.

Nationally Cameron talks about the environment and sustainable development, locally Council Leader Mike Freer wants to concrete over half the borough and put up rabbit hutch flats, causing pollution and traffic gridlock (have a look at the Cricklewood redevelopment plans).

Nationally Cameron talks about recycling, locally an incinerator forms part of the Cricklewood redevelopment plan, championed by Mike Freer. I'm not an expert but there is strong evidence that waste incinerators and large populations don't mix. You get all sorts of nasty diseases popping up.

As to greater transparency and devolution of powers. Ask yourself this. When Barnet asked the tenants of sheltered warden accomodation if they wanted to lose their wardens over 80% said no. Did Barnet Council listen.

Now if you like the Mike Freer brand of Conservatism, where the 11 man Tory cabinet in Barnet make all of the important decisions, usually behind closed doors, then Mike Freer and his band of Tories are just the party for you. I'd suggest that if you are a Tory who's impressed by David Cameron and feel that the direction he's taking the Conservative party is the right one and you live in Barnet, I'd seriously consider voting Lib Dem at the next Council election, if I were you. Remember a vote for the current Tories on the Council is to support the man who lost £27.4 million of your money in Iceland, then blamed everyone else. David Cameron is clearly closer to Lib Dem values and ideas than he is to Mike Freer's. Freer made the national newspapers with his Easycouncil scheme. Was David Cameron impressed? Did he see this as a policy to be adopted by the National Tories? No, he ran a mile. In his own words, he's more impressed with all the stuff the LibDems have been promoting in Barnet for years.

One interesting footnote on Freer's Easycouncil scheme. If you check his Leaderlistens.com website, he makes some bizarre comments about the press interest in the scheme. He says that he's surprised anyone was interested in what he had to say, implying they only picked it up because nothing else was happening. Barnet Council has spent millions on consultants to concoct this scheme. Freer claimed at a Council meeting I attended that everyone had their eyes on Barnet to see what happened. The reason it made the news was because the papers recognised straight away that it was a suitably crackpot scheme for the silly season (as the Newspapers call the summer months).

So there you have it. If you want a bunch of nationally recognised purveyors of crackpot schemes, suitable only for the Guardian in the silly season vote for Mike Freer's Conservatives at the Council elections. If you like David Cameron's policies and the direction he wants to go, Vote Lib Dem. I'd suggest that a big swing to the Lib Dems from the Tories in the local elections is probably the only thing that would make the sensible local Tories do something to regain their credibility.

In the Observer article mentioned above, Cameron sends this message to progressive and forward thinking Lib Dems who are serious about improving Great Britain

if you want rid of Gordon Brown and the big brother state, and if you care about our schools, our quality of life and our liberties, then join us in one national movement that can bring real change.

If I were David Cameron, I'd tell this to Barnet's Tory Councillors as a matter of urgency, because anyone who lives in Barnet who agrees with him, and knows anything about the local party, can only vote Lib Dem given the what Barnet Council are trying to do with their current policies.