Time for real Conservatives to stand up and be counted

 What is a Conservative in the United Kingdom? I used to think I knew, but I am really not too sure anymore. I was raised in a house where my mother was a socialist of Irish heritage and my father was a Conservative of Australian heritage. I rarely discussed politics with my father. It usually ended in bad tempered arguments. However I had a clear idea of what he believed a Conservative to be. My father was a bomber pilot for the RAF. He was a highly principled man who despised fascism, having seen it at first hand as a prisoner of war in 1944. His view of Conservatism was one that was one of competent management, pragmatism, outward looking, seeking to build trading links and ensuring businesses and business owners could go about their business with minimal state interference. He believed in a welfare state, but believed that where possible the role of this should be to lift people out of poverty, so they could stand on their own two feet. 

He was a member of organisations such as the Rotary club, believing that business owners had a responsibility to be involved in the local community and also that it was incumbent on the better off to stick their hands in their pockets to support the less well off.

As someone who had fought in the armed forces, he believed that Labour could not be trusted with the security of the nation. He was not sympathetic to organisations such as CND that he believed were naive fools. He was a strong believer that technology would lift us all out of poverty and that innovations such as nuclear power were forces for the good. He loved cars, planes and travel. As it wasn't really on the radar before he passed away in 1987, I've no idea what his view would have been of climate change, but he trusted scientists, doctors and weathermen. He was a fab of Margaret Thatcher as he believed the Trades Unions were out of control in the 1970's and ruining the country. As an employer he believed in a fair deal for workers, but also felt that they did not understand the stresses and difficulties of running a business. When I was growing up, we had the three day week. It nearly bankrupted the family. We had all sorts of shortages and power cuts and he put the blame fairly and squarely on the Trades Unions. 

Whilst I did not agree with his views (my mother was quite vocal in her views of his opinions), I respected him and I understood where he was coming from. I have always assumed that the vast majority of sensible Conservative supporters took the same view as him. I never believed they were evil, malicious or greedy. They just wanted sensible, pragmatic government.

We spent the summer being bored to death by a seemingly never ending leadership battle between Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. The membership of the Tory party chose Truss to lead us. She struck me as a pretty uninspiring choice, but she won and she's now Prime Minister. I genuinely didn't know what to expect. She hadn't really outlined any particular policies, other than a general view that she was more right wing than Rishi Sunak.

When Truss took the keys to no 10, she had a full in tray. What were her priorities? My assumption had been that her no 1 priority would be to address the nations energy security crisis. The second priority would be to ensure that those hit by the cost of living crisis would have enough money to eat and stay warm this winter. The third priority would be to address the appalling state of the UK's state finances. despite over a decade of austerity, our finances are in a mess. The fourth priority would be to address inflation, which is driving up mortgage bills and putting even more stress on the budgets of home owning families with mortgages.

When I heard that the new chancellor was enacting a mini budget, I assumed that this was a sensible measure to address the paralysis caused by the slow implosion of Boris Johnson's government over the last year.

With all of those issues in the in tray, what did we get? A massive tax cut for millionaires. Abolition of VAT for Tourists. The reversal of the National Insurance raise that a Conservative chancellor proposed at the last budget. What has she done to resolve the energy security crisis? Her cunning plan is to allow fracking. This is madness. No sane company would invest money in this at the moment. The Truss government is trailing Labour by ten percentage points in the polls and are likely to revoke any licences as soon as they take office. Most fracking sites are in areas controlled by Conservative Councils, who are not at all keen on the concept. The UK desperately needs an energy security strategy that gives a clear plane for the UK's energy requirements for the next ten years. My view is that the UK should be not only seeking to be self sufficient. We should be looking to have a surpluss of energy generation facilities, from a mixture of sources, with a big emphasis on renewable and sustainable energy sources. In the short term, we will still require CO2 producing energy and as a nation we can't have lights going out in winter. What we should be doing is having a plan for where we want to be in 20 years and start building the infrastructure we need now.

The second priority, helping those in food and energy poverty. No decent and compassionate human being should be prepared to stand by and let people freeze and starve. I don't think anyone Tory, Labour or monster raving looney would argue with a policy that guaranteed that everyone can keep their heating on and have a sensible basic diet. I am not keen on means tested benefits, but if Truss had said "We have an emergency, so anyone who's income falls below a level that pays their rent/mortgage, heating and food bills will get emergency financial assistance to make up the difference", I doubt anyone in her party would argue. Instead, we get a £50,000 tax cut for people earning a million quid a year. I know a few people in such a  bracket. I saw one at the weekend and asked whether getting an extra £50K a year would make him work harder. He just looked embarrassed and said "I've been looking to work less hard and this might help". Most of the people I know who have this sort of income worked extremely hard 20 years ago and are now reaping the benefits. I believe that the reason Truss did this was so that the extremely rich would donate to Tory coffers ahead of the election. As Labour are planning to reverse the cut, anyone on a million quid a year will lose £50K, so there is a damn good reason for them to help the Tories out. It's nbot exactly putting the nation first, but sadly human nature never likes the concept of the government taking lots of your cash.

The third priority, addressing the nations appalling finances. The Truss government has stated that this will be achieved through growth. She believes that huge tax cuts for the rich and abolishing bankers bonus caps will do the trick. I had an interesting conversation with a friend in banking. He reminded me that the bonuses were introduced as it was seen as a bit immoral that the bankers had caused the credit crunch, crashed the world economy, had a massive bale out to save their skins and so whilst the rest of us laboured under austerity, it was simply not right that the people who caused the mess were absolutely raking it in. What concerns me most is that the Truss government have produced no evidence to support their strategy. When we talk about growing the GDP there are only two ways this can be done. The first is to improve productivity of businesses. The second is to have mass immigration, so there are more people here working and spending money. It is interesting to read that the Tories are planning to reopen the doors for immigrants to fix the labour crisis. The truth is that by having mass immigration the GDP will rise and Truss will claim that her policy of giving bankers massive bonuses and tax cuts for the rich has worked. The reason she needs to open the taps to mass immigration is because Brexit has caused a labour crisis. I do wonder what will happen when the Tory masses twig what she's up to. Sadly, improving business efficiency, with tax breaks for firms investing is not something that they have considered. If I was truss, I'd give all small businesses a £20K allowance to offset investment in technology 100% against business taxes, in the form of tax credits. This would encourage firms to modernise. For medium sized firms, I'd raise this to £500,000 and for big firms £5 million. That would be a far better use of the cash than tax cuts for the mega rich.

As to the fourth priority. Rising interst rates. The pound is crashing this morning. The markets are spooked and think we are being governed by loonies. The Bank of England are most likely going to have to put interest rates up, meaning people with mortgages, young families etc are going to get clobbered. In short, it is a total mess.

As far as I can see, this mini budget is not just bad politics, it is doing massive damage to the UK. I honestly can't believe that any decent Tory can be happy with it. None of the policies that the Truss govt announced were sold to the membership during the contest. I wonder how many are having buyers regret? One person I spoke to over the weekend said "The majority of Tory members are old, have paid off their mortgages and are well off, so they don't give a stuff". I can't believe anyone will be thrilled to see their children and grandchildren struggling, the countries finances falling apart and the value of their savings eroded by inflation. I spoke last week to one Tory supporting friend. He has just sold up and moved from Mill Hill to Essex. He has a bigger property and has put £80k in cash in the bank. With inflation at 10%, his lump sum will lose £8,000 in value over the next year. If there is an election in two years, he'll have lost £16,000. Will such Tory voters really be putting their tick in the box of an adminstration that clearly doesn't give a stuff about them. 

The majority of Tory MP's didn't support Truss in the leadership contest. They have the option of stopping this madness. It would be hugely embarrassing for them to call a new leader to heel after a couple of weeks, but if you know someone is destroying the economy, surely any Tory who is a patriot would not simply sit on their hands out of loyalty to an unelected leader, enacting bonkers policies that were not in the manifesto. If Truss wants to follow this course, she should put it to the country. The only people who can save us from this madness are real Conservatives in the House of Commons. It is time for them to stand up. The Tories have a majority because the nation rejected a Jeremy Corbyn government, who they thought would wreck the economy. How on earth can they sit back and let Truss do the same? 

Why new Prime Minster Liz Truss will not be Boris Mark II

 There will be many things said about the new Prime Minister, Elizabeth Truss. One theme that is emerging is that she is Boris mark II. She is no such thing. Boris Johnson was elected and had an 80 seat majority. No one has been more critical of Boris Johnson than I was, but when he was elected PM, he soon twigged that he lacked the legitimacy to sort out the Brexit mess and called a general election. Boris carried the blessing of a majority of his MP's and was rubber stamped by the Tory Party members. We have a Parliamentary democracy that means the PM is first amongst equals in the commons. Liz Truss does not hold a mandate from her own MP's. She trailed Rishi Sunak in the Leadership contest. As far as I am concerned, her second act, after appointing a cabinet should be to call a vote of confidence of MP's. That would at least give her a fig leaf of legitimacy (assuming she won, which no sane person would bet against). 

Having got her MP's to publicly support her, the next thing she should do is commit herself to the Tory manifesto that they were elected on. I don't agree with it, but that is what the party was elected to do. Of course the cost of living crisis and energy supplies are most Britons no 1 concern, but Truss needs to show that she respects the democratic institutions of the UK. This may all sound a bit pedantic, but to me it is very important. A wholescale throwing out of policies, following her election by a cabal of 130,000 tory voters would be an insult to the UK.

Anyone who thinks Liz Truss is Boris mark II is crazy. Firstly she lacks his charisma and his thick skin. For reasons I don't really understand, the Tory Party were largely prepared to forgive him anything (apart from a poll ratings slump). Truss comes in as the preferred candidate of the core Tory vote. I may be thick and I'm not a Tory, but I cannot for the life of me see how that will translate into a winning formula at the ballot box. She can either betray the people who put her there and try and unite the party, appealing to the centre right swing voters who win Tories elections or she can hunker down and hope against hope that the Brexit party vote and some sort of reaction against the dullness of Starmer will see her through. 

Many of the Tories who are still loyal to Boris forget that his landslide was against Jeremy Corbyn. Whilst Corbyn energised the Labour left, drawing out all sorts of voters, he never, at any point had a realistic chance of being PM. Theresa May managed to pull off the almost impossible and lose the Tory majority against Corbyn, but Corbyn was still in something of a honeymoon period and May came up with a raft of truly appalling policies that even die hard Tories hated.

Boris was always a long way to the left of the Brexit true believers. They went along with him as they knew he was the one leader who could pull the whole thing off. Boris's gut instincts are always to wing it and let others clear up the mess. Sadly for him, the Pandemic and the behaviour of his team did for him before the true consequences of his policies became clear. Many Brits have woken up to the reality of Brexit. Long queues at ports, higher prices, lack of opportunities, pubs & restaurants closing due to lack of workers. This would be bad, but with the Ukraine conflict casusing an energy crisis and the UK in a proxy war with Russia, she's coming in at the most difficult time since Winston Churchill took over.

The sad truth for Ms Truss is that even if she wanted to be Boris Mk II it isn't an option. She has to come up, in short order, with some serious policies to address all manner of crises. One of the flagship messages of the Tories, one their core vote loves, is that they will sort out illegal immigration. Despite harsh words and horrible policies, Priti Patel has failed miserably. The sad truth is that this a Brexit failure. The French have no reason to do us a favour. Whilst the Euro haters scream that the EU is 'not playing fair' the sad truth is that only a fool would ever think we'd be treated the same once we left. We have no seat at the table and all we can do is complain. The Rwanda policy is an embarrassment and a failure. Truss needs to appoint a team that can do something to sort this out, but the Tory Gene pool has been very diminshed. 

So what should she do? If I was her, I'd abandon the Boris policy of appointing bonkers loyalists. Try and get competent people into the cabinet. If I were her, I'd appoint Boris as Minister for the Ukraine. He's popular with the Ukraine and giving him a figurehead role would do her no harm. The Ukraine Crisis is dangerous and he has something to offer. I'd give Sunak a cabinet post, I'd make him Minister for Brexit Opportunities. He's a Brexiteer and he's vaguely competent. She has to heal the divisions. I'd sack Patel as she's clearly failed. I'd put Jeremy Hunt as her replacement. It's a poison chalice, but he is at least vaguely competent. I'd put Tom Tugenhadt at the MOD. At least he has a clue about the issues and might actually sort something out. 

I doubt Truss will do any of that. I suspect that she will have to reward her cronies. Her one saving grace is that Dominic Cummings has been buried and a stake has been put in the place where his heart should be. 

I predicted in January that Truss would become PM in the summer. I predict that she won't be in two years. 

Liz Truss could be the greatest ever UK Prime Minister

On the first day of the year (remember those days of cold weather and covid restrictions?) I predicted that Liz Truss would be the new Prime Minister by the end of the Summer. I always start the year with a set of predictions and I've been uncannily spot on several times, as well as unfeasibly wrong. 

Here's a few of my Sageful words

"Rishi sunak faces off against Liz Truss for the final round"

"We have a new Prime Minister. Liz Truss takes over, her first act is to demote the chancellor to the back benches, blaming him for the tax rises that cost the Tories the local elections."

We are not quite there yet, but Paddy Power seem to think I'm spot on. The smart money is on Liz. So the question now surely must be "How will she do?". My answer is "Liz Truss could be the greatest ever UK Prime Minister". This may shock you. But then again, I believe I could be 'the greatest ever Pope'. If I got the job I'd allow married Priests, Bishops and Pope's (mostly as I don't want a divorce), I'd open the books up to the police on all of the nonces, and change the stance on abortion, contraception and support for bonkers right wing politics. In my own mind at least, this would make me a pretty good Pope, although many would say I'm a pretty bad Catholic. Who knows, the Cardinals may read this and decide I'm just the guy and give me a bell. Extremely unlikely, but you never know. 

I'd put the chances of Liz Truss being the best ever PM as about the same. There's a few differences between plans for being PM and mine for being Pope. I'm a lifelong Catholic and I'd like to see the Church be aligned with my views, which I believe are more in tune with times and would be good for everyone, not just Catholics. I believe it may tempt back a few lapsed Catholics put off by the scandals and the archaic attitudes. Liz Truss is not a lifelong Tory. She used to be a Lib Dem. She's not a lifelong #Brexiteer, she used to be a #Remainer. Liz Truss is not seeking to tempt back Tories disgusted by Boris Johnsons antics, she is simply saying and doing what she has to do to win the job and to hell with her principles (if she ever had any). She claims being a Lib Dem and a Remainer were mistakes on 'her journey'. Unlike Mrs Thatcher, she seems more than happy to make a U-Turn on her principles when there is a juicy job. David Cameron was a passionate Remainer, so Liz Truss was as well. If Remain had won and Cameron was standing down as PM, she'd be trumping her Remain credentials and have the support of the likes of Kenneth Clarke, who would presumably still be Tories. 

As it is, when Boris turned up, the Chamaeleon that is Liz Truss changed colours and blended perfectly into the bonkers wing of the Tory Party. She knows that once her feet are under the table, she can change her spots again if need be. The Tories biggest challenge is to reconnect with voters, disgusted by the behaviour of Boris Johnson. Liz is as dull as dishwater, so I really don't see a closet opening, with a stack of skeletons falling out. But if her sole USP is not being Boris, how will she persuade anyone? The one talent Boris had was that he was a very good risk taker. Liz Truss's talent seems to have been to be very good at sucking up to the boss at the time and shinning up the greasy pole. When you are at the top, you have to start showing leadership. I think she's displayed an uncanny knack of working out how to ingratiate herself with her bosses. She's also identified what makes the right of the Tory party tick. But that is a very different constituency from the electorate. 

Her big gamble seems to be that she's going to make tax cuts. As Rishi Sunak rightly points out, this is irresponsible and dangerous. We are seeing rampant inflation. The Bank of England has imposed interest rate hikes to 'take the heat out of the economy'. If Truss gives us all a tax cut, then the Treasury will have to impose even harsher rate rises. This will primarily hit mortgage owners, the very people who vote Tory. When you mortgage goes up, you feel it. She will need a strong cabinet, but the first rule of politics is that you reward the people who put you in the job. The hard right of the Tory party is not stuffed full of clever and high achieving people. All of the best, most principled people have been culled or resigned and most support Sunak. The membership is a long way to the right of the Tory MP's, which is why she'll win. Both the members and the Right wing MP's who backed her do not want a One Nation cabinet. They want hard right Friedmanesque politics and policies. 

With such a cabinet, I can't see any way that we'll get the policies we need to rebuild the UK after covid and put the NHS back on an even keel. I can't see any way that there will be a commitment to overhauling the UK's creaking infrastructure, as tax cuts have to be funded. I can't see any way that we will reach a satisfactory settlement with the EU on all of the issues that are causing chaos at our borders. 

Of course I could be wrong. Maybe Liz Truss will build an amazing team, fix the problems caused by Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson, revitalise the UK economy and rebuild our international credibility and reputation. And I promise you this. If she does, I'll bestow a Sainthood on her when I become Pope.