Tuesday, 11 August 2015

2020 - Corbyn, Farron and Osborne?

As David Cameron has stated that he will step down before the next election, it now looks like likely that the next election will be fought with Jeremy Corbyn leading Labour, Tim Farron leading the Lib Dems and George Osborne leading the Tories. It was once said that "a week is a long time in politics", therefore five years is an eternity. After John Majors unexpected win in 1992, Neil Kinnock stepped down and John Smith took over Labour. Smith was a hugely admired figure and it seemed like Labour had at last found an electable leader. Sadly it was not to be, as Smith had a heart attack and died (has anyone ever noticed how many Labour figures who were not Blairites unexpectedly had heart attacks? Should I be making a trip to William Hill?). Half way through the Parliament, John Major quit as Leader. The Tories were thrown into turmoil and promptly re-elected him. With the rise of Blair, the Lib Dems seemed like a sideshow and an irrelevence, despite having dozens more seats than their current total.

Anyway, the point I'm making is that I don't actually think that whatever happens in the Labour vote in September, we'll see the line up in the title contest the next election. I've no idea whether the Tories will keep Cameron, but history tells us that front runners like Osborne get shafted. whoever wins, his enemies know him and how to get at him. Will Corbyn actually still be leader if he wins in September. As a gambling man, I'd bet on two years. The right of Labour hae shown  a very anti democratic streak and I expect the plotting to start the day Corbyn takes the keys (assuming he wins). as for Farron, there aren't enough Lib Dems left to mount a coup. As he's young & healthy, unless he falls under a bus, I expect him to stay, but who really knows (and some say who cares).

We are in for some interesting times.

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