Showing posts with label Corona Virus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Corona Virus. Show all posts

Thursday, 16 April 2020

Time to get a grip on the Corona Virus shambles

Audrey Shaw
Take a deep breath, count to a thousand, then try and write a few coherent words.

Yesterday, I wrote a tribute to my Auntie Audrey, who passed away on Tuesday evening. I wrote this for her family and for her friends, to try and put a smile on their face. I didn't want to speak about her illness and the circumstances of her death. That was not on the agenda. However, as Audrey was someone with strong views and someone who spent her life believing in fairness, justice and social responsibility, I also know that she would not rest in peace until I said what I am about to say.

Audrey was eighty nine years old. She was in good health for a lady of her age, until the Sunday before last whens he had a stroke. I spoke to her a couple of days later. She called as it was our wedding anniversary. She told me she was having physio, and she was hoping to leave hospital within a couple of weeks. The question was where she would be going. Would she be staying with one of her daughters or would she go home and they'd take turns to look after her. It all seemed rather positive. Then last Friday, we got the news which I guess everyone dreads. She had Covid19. It was clear that this had been picked up in hospital. The place Audrey had been taken to get better had resulted in her demise. The stats on the news said 761 people had died. Without Audrey, it would have been 760. She is just one small number in a very large number to most people. To us, she was the number that mattered the most. There are 760 other families, with stories, with grief, just the same. But for us, Audrey was the focus. That is why it is personal.

There are many things that we can say about the way the UK has dealt with the crisis. There are many people we can commend. The vast majority of the population, who are following the rules. The NHS workers, the key workers, the old veteran who has walked around his garden 100 times and raised £12 million. I could go on, but you get the drift.

Then there is the government. I will refrain from criticising Boris Johnson, he has been out of the picture and is unwell. We will never know if things would have been better if he had been well, but out of a sense of fair play, I will give him the benefit of the doubt. Then there is the Chancellor. The blow to the economy has been devastating, but he has the air of a man with a grip on the situation. I can say this, as his measures have directly impacted our business in a way which means we feel confident we will survive the crisis and when we reopen, twelve people will return to work. I 100% realise that some will not be so lucky, but given the speed and scale of the crisis, he seems to have done his best.

Then there is the Health secretary, Matt Hancock. He has one job. It isn't easy, but if you don't want the responsibility, don't put your hand up when the jobs are being divvied up by The Prime Minister. The sad truth is that with any objective analysis, he has completely failed the country. His job is to make sure the NHS is fit for purpose to deal with whatever challenges get thrown at it. His job is to listen to scientific advisers, organise supply chains, make sure the chancellor gives him the dosh to pay the bills. The sad truth, and what happened to Audrey is proof of this, is that he has failed us.

Whilst no one expected the Covid19 crisis in December, the job of the health secretary is to ensure that robust plans are in place for such things. Humanity has been at war against infectious diseases since we first evolved from monkeys (or Adam popped into the Garden of Eden, if you prefer that version). The fact we are still here, is a testament to our robust design and our adaptability as a species. Over the last 1,000 years, medicine has evolved from hocum pokum to a precise science. We know that every few years a new, infectious virus will emerge. We know that it will take us a pweriod to develop vaccines. We know that distancing and isolation are the only effective means of blocking transmission until a vaccine has been developed, if the virus takes hold in the population. We know that when people deal with such dangerous pathogens, they need effective equipment (now called PPE). In the late 1970's I worked at the National Institute for Medical Research. I arranged myself some unofficial work experience, working in the immunology department as a lab porter. At the time, some labs had pathogens such as Green Monkey Fever. The protocols were strict. I discussed the response to plagues and diseases with the scientists. I was writing a project for my A level Biology course on immunology. I am not an expert, but we know this stuff. The government built the NIMR in Mill Hill (Now the Crick Institute) so we'd be able to deal with this. Governments, both Labour and Conservative, have funded research and built resilience into the system, so that when the day came we would be prepared.

And that day has come. How has the UK responded? Our key NHS staff and care workers do not have PPE. We have been woefully slow in ramping up testing to anything like the levels we need. Th sad truth, brutal though it is, is that my Aunt was infected by someone in the hospital where she was taken for treatment. This was not inevitable. The sad truth was that she caught it either because she came within six feet of someone with the disease that did not have proper PPE on, or she was given something that had not been sanitised and had been in contact with someone who had covid. I don't know who this was. A doctor, a nurse, another patient, the tea maker, the cleaner, who knows. All I know is that if all of those people had simply applied the rules we've known for decades, then we'd b planning her discharge rather than her funeral.

Matt Hancocks job is to make sure Audrey and the other 760 people whop passed away are safe in hospital. Many won't have contracted it in hospitals or from health workers, but the lack of PPE and testing means we don't know which workers have the disease and we haven't given them the tools to protect their patients. Both patients and workers have been placed in danger.

I did not need to be like this. It seems that in Germany and New Zealand, for example, they got a grip on the situation early. They have PPE and they have testing. What are they doing that we haven't been doing? The answer is simple. They have just been properly organised, recognised the risks and done something about it.

Every day, I've listened to the 5pm conference. Every day the news is the same. Not enough PPE, not enough tests, it will always be better next week, but the press is full of horror stories. There is no earthly reason why the NHS should not have a stockpile of PPE to last for the next two years, let alone two months. If Germany and South Korea can source tests that works, the excuse we hear that we can't is clearly nonsense. One question that has been asked time and again is why people returning from covid hotspots have not been tested and quarantined? Maybe I'm stupid, but there has not been a single satisfactory answer. I've no idea whether the scientific advisers wheeled out are under orders to tow the line or whether they believe what they say, but it makes no sense.

I'm happy to observe the rules on lockdown for the greater good. I am one of the lucky ones with a garden and a dog and a guitar, so there is stuff to do. The UK has been on a mission to build as many tiny flats as possible, with no outdoor space. I've long felt this was a folly. Now we see millions cooped up in these, with no respite at all. Heaven alone knows what this is doing for their mental health. I have sympathy for those that seek an hours sunbathing in the park, on their own, yards from other people. I don't join in the clarion call on social media criticising those out on their bikes. The bottom line is that they are highly unlikely to infect anyone, as if they are in the road, they will be far more than six feet from pedestrians.

Another example of the drift is the questions as to what will happen when lockdown ends. The answer has been "That is some time away so we will not discuss it". This displays a lack of trust in the British public. It means one of two things. The first is that they have no plan. That is terrifying and gross incompetence. The alternative is that they have a plan and they don't trust us to be told what it is, as they think we are too stupid to realise that it won't be used for a few weeks. As someone who runs a business, this is an almost impossible situation. Lets say that the plan is that they will let everyone who has no underlying health conditions under 65 out, so long as those who are vulnerable are properly isolated from them, I will be in a position to start planning my staff rota when we reopen. I will also have some idea of how many of our customers we will be seeing, which will affect our opening times. If they say no more than 10 people in one place, then that means a very different thing for musicians than if we are only allowed 4. That will have a huge impact on our business. There are millions of other businesses in the same position. Having some idea of the duration and the exit strategy means I can plan the level of debt my business needs, and will dictate arrangements we make with some of the people we pay as part of our normal business.

My personal view is that if we had some sort of checklist as to the risks we personally were at and what risks we posed to other people, we could make an informed decision. As an example, in our house there are six people, all between 18 and 57, who have not got compromised immune systems. So long as we keep away from people who are at risk, we are unlikely to suffer serious issues. I am not saying we should be let out just yet, as the virus is still at its peak, but I would guess that we meet the criteria for release from lock down before people who have underlying conditions or are elderly. If we were given a heads up, then we could start planning. We could also start to generate the wealth that will eventually get the country back on its feet. I have been involved with local churches to try and sort out a community response. It is hard to plan when we have no idea when this will lift or who it will lift for.  A competent government would give us some idea of a how we can deal with it. Maybe we should all be given passes that say what we can and can't do. Travelling on public transport is an example. I don't need to at the moment, so maybe that should be enforced by law. My guess is that most transmission was on public transport, at busy supermarkets and in pubs and clubs before lockdown. It is crazy that there are no rules for small shops. I have witnessed some appallingly stupid behaviour in these recently. Maybe if the rules were laid out, then lock down could be raised earlier with sensible rules still in place. I'm not an expert, these are just musings, but I want to be treated like an adult.


I believe all of this is a smokescreen to deflect criticism from the fact that the health secretary is out of his depth and failing the nation. I don't think he's a criminal. He's just someone who has failed to step up. This has been clear for weeks. The answer is simple. The Government should ask someone within their ranks to step up and take over, who can display some sort of competence and who can get a plan together quickly. Personally I don't care who it is so long as they can get a grip. Surely there must be someone within the ranks of Tory MP's and Peers who can demonstrate such competence. If they don't, can the Labour Party, Lib Dems, SNP or anyone else lend them someone till this is over.

When we last had such a crisis, Winston Churchill made Clement Attlee his deputy. They appointed Lord Beaverbrook, owner of the Daily Express armaments minister. Within weeks, the country had been completely transformed onto a war footing and Spitfires were being produced faster than the Luftwaffe could shoot them down. Pilots from the Commonwealth, Poland, Czechoslovakia and even the USA were drafted in. That's what happens when you have competent people in charge.

The horrific truth is that people are dying and for no good reason. This isn't through malice, it is through sheer incompetence. The government needs to get a grip.

Wednesday, 18 March 2020

Time to organise our local community to address the corona virus

Covid-19
It is now clear that, as a community, we are going to change the way we live for the next few weeks/months.  We need various things organising, a local hardship fund, street level contacts for elderly and disabled neighbours, to ensure supplies. Protocols agreed for visiting/dropping deliveries for such people.

Many people want to do something, but are scratching their heads as to exactly what. I met with friends last night, and we discussed the matter. What we want to do is to take a few small, practical measures, that will hopefully make a big difference. It might even make us have a better community going forward.

Here is a list of practical suggestions.

1) Set up a street level WhatsApp group to stay in touch with neighbours - I live in Millway, so we talked last night about setting up a Millway group. Use this to make sure neighbours are looked after. Some elderly neighbours will not be internet savvy, so I suggest that we drop in a note giving your phone number and ask them to call you if they have any concerns. If each resident did this for one or two elderly/vulnerable neighbours, we could ensure that they are ok. We could also use it to swap cups of sugar, etc if any of us are short.

2) Pledge a small amount of money for a street level hardship fund. In my road, there are 120 homes. If each pledged a donation of £20 towards the fund, that would mean there was £2,400 available if anyone in the road was in urgent need. I hope this should never be needed, but it would give those who are terrified of not being able to feed themselves or afford soap/toilet rolls etc a degree of reassurance.

3) Why not offer to place orders on Deliveroo or other services for elderly neighbours, if they are having trouble cooking or getting supplies and do not know how to use such services.

4) Looking after pets. Many people who live alone have pets. Make sure that these are being looked after. This will most likely be a big worry for those self isolating.

5) Social media. Facebook and Twitter can be a massive help or the devil incarnate when it comes to crisis management. Posting alarmist messages etc does not help, please be mindful of what you post and what effect it had. There is no point posting "Be nice" if the next message you post is a diatribe against a friend or neighbour.

6) Respect rules introduced for greater social good. This morning, I was walking my dog past Iceland, during a period designated for exclusive shopping for elderly and infirm. I am sorry to report that it appeared that this was being completely ignored. Just imagine if it was your mother or grandmother being affected.

7) Loneliness is a major problem for those self isolating. Keep in touch with friends and neighbours. Have daily phone calls to check in. If you are aware of elderly neighbours birthdays, etc, make an effort to drop in a card (observing sensible protocols).


We also need to organise a co-ordinated effort to support our local businesses as best we can. For example, if you normally go for a curry at The Mill Hill Tandoori on a Friday night, but wish to avoid restaurants, order a takeaway. Many such restaurants only have licences for alcohol sales on site, but these should be relaxed to allow deliveries, so that they can deliver a bottle of Cobra or wine with the food, without risk of prosecution. 


The Barnet Eye has been talking to members of various political parties, including the Lib Dems, UKIP, Labour, The Greens and the Conservatives about how we respond as a community.



The consensus is that Barnet Council are now behind the curve and need to step up. The last message on their website (as of 8.35am on 18.3.2020) was posted on Friday.


I would suggest that Barnet Council licensing committee and the Police should issue such advice. I wrote to the leaders of Barnet Council this morning suggesting the following changes


I hope you are all keeping well. I was wondering if you could let me know the arrangements for businesses to take advantage of the governments rates relief proposal which was announced yesterday? I understand that the practical logistics will take a few days to sort out, but as a member of the Federation of Small Business, I would like to give an update to local members and other businesses of progress for hard pressed businesses, as to how and when this will be available.

If I may be so bold, there are two other measures I would like to suggest that may assist businesses (sadly not mine)

1. A temporary change to licensing laws, allowing restaurants that do not have off licences to supply alcohol with Deliveroo etc meals
2. A temporary relaxation of planning rules, allowing restaurants and pubs which do not have consent for delivery, to deliver food/drinks etc

These are unprecedented times and we need to be flexible to support businesses. It would be great if Barnet Council could lead the way. Now is the time to come together

There are other things that need to be done. I have volunteered for the Mill Hill Churches Homeless shelter this Sunday, doing an overnight shift at John Keeble Church, making sure the homeless have a place to sleep. Although there is a slight increase in my personal risk profile, if we do not support such schemes, we are throwing those at the bottom of the pile in our society under a bus. This morning I noted that the coffee bars in the Broadway were doing a brisk trade. If we can get a coffee, we can help the homeless.

I would welcome all other ideas as to our local, personal response. I will try and keep this blog updated as the ideas roll in.

Tuesday, 17 March 2020

Small businesses need support and certainty now in face of Covid-19 crisis

At around 4.30pm yesterday, a customer brought a guitar into the studio and asked if I could change a string for him. Usually, I get one of the boys to do this, but as none were around, I did the change myself. As I always do, I cleaned the guitar up, tuned it and had a chat. The guy then gave me a fiver and said "have a pint". It was a nice gesture, so I thought "I'll do just that". My route home passes the Mill Hill Services Club, so I nipped in for a pint of Hophead, their finest real ale on tap. Whilst I was in the club, the Prime Minister came on TV and made his statement. 

The first thing that was clear was that I was doing something he felt was inadvisable. As there were only two other customers and Leanne the barmaid in the club, I decided not to panic. I finished my drink and bade everyone farewell, not knowing when I'd next see them. Like many pubs, clubs, theatres and cinemas, the Mill Hill Services Club has a decision to make. In December, the country elected Boris Johnson to lead us. Leadership means making tough decisions, doing the right thing.

Yesterday was the day it became 100% clear that Boris Johnson is not a leader. He had a decision to make. The scientific advice said that people should not go to pubs, clubs, theatres and cinemas. A leader would have issued an executive order closing them, that should be the end of the matter. Boris did not. He showed he lacks the skills and bottle to do it. His decision means that these businesses cannot claim on their insurance policies. This is not trivial. The entertainment and hospitality industry is a key part of the UK economy and the inability of Boris to take the required steps has exposed the industry to a huge amount of risk. Millions of jobs are at risk, real ale has a shelf life, all of the micro brewers and real ale pubs will take an especially big hit. If you turn the lights off, when you come back the beer may not be drinkable. It needs TLC to deliver a good pint. This is just one small aspect of the crisis.
For me in the music industry, we are seeing mayhem. The following is just one email we've received today

Hiya
Sorry we've had to cancel this but drummer and guitarist vulnerable to the you know what.
Could you please refund, if you need any more details please let me know.

Gonna be tough all round, hope you can weather it. We've had six gigs cancelled already!

Cheers
I've processed half a dozen refunds today, all with similar stories. 

At present, we believe that our operation is not high risk. We have issued guidelines to all customers on safety. We have asked them to go directly to studios, not congregate in reception and just come to pay for sessions. We have wipes available and are regularly cleaning. But there is no clarity at all. We are just one of a million small businesses that cannot make any plans, beyond doing everything to cut costs. My staff are terrified of the effects. We have a thriving business making recordings for Bahmitzvah's. Sadly we've seen six recording sessions cancelled as children are having their big day cancelled. It must heartbreaking for the kids who have done all of the preparation and were looking forward to the party. There are several companies who use us as part of their package for such events, These spent the day cancelling bookings, I really worry for them, as this is their busiest time of the year. 

As for the small cafe's on our high streets, these are going too face a nightmare scenario. They really need help today. Like many small businesses, I had a sleepless night worrying, trying to figure out how to manage, how I can be fair to staff, without destroying the business.

The lack of leadership compounds these worries by the day. That is without the worry of sickness. Last week my auntie cancelled her 90th birthday party. She is fit and healthy for a lady of her age, but I am terrified for her. The lack of action from Boris has certainly not helped keep her safe.
As a natural optimist, I am in new territory. I cannot remember a worse time. My business is now in survival mode. The sad truth is that the government has done nothing at all to help. 

Saturday, 7 March 2020

The Saturday list #255 - 10 ways to protect yourself from the Corona virus

Firstly, lets not panic. If you are a healthy person, the Corona virus is very unlikely to do more than make you feel off colour for a few days. Even those at risk are statistically unlikely to suffer long term consequences or death. But the most sensible thing we can do is avoid contracting the virus if we can. We've spent the week collecting tips from various healthcare professionals etc. Most are common sense and are probably worth bearing in mind generally. If you follow these rules, you will be far less likely to catch colds, flu or get stomach upsets.

1. Wash your hands properly with soap and water after travel or when you may have come into contact with the virus. The virus can live for up to 12 hours on many surfaces, so anything that has come into contact with peoples hands may have the virus. Statistically this is more likely to be doors in busy places, tube handrails etc.

2. Use your card to pay using the contactless feature. Avoiding cash is a sensible precaution as this comes into contact with peoples hands.

3. If you go to the supermarket, wipe the trolley or basket handle with an anti viral wipe. Many people will have pushed this around.

4. If you are flying, wipe down the arm rests and table with a wipe. Airlines do not clean this and you don't know  who sat in the seat before you.

5. Go for a pint after work! If you can avoid travelling on the tube or public transport in rush hour, you are far less likely to be squashed up next to someone with the virus. Generally if you can keep a metre between yourself and the next  person, it will massively reduce your chances of infection. If you can work from home, this would also reduce your risk.

6. Keep warm and hydrated. You become far more susceptible to infection when you are run down, cold and not in good health. Keeping warm and hydrated keeps your body working properly.

7. Avoid close contact with people displaying signs of illness. If you are on public transport or in a public place and someone is displaying signs of illness, sweating, coughing excessively etc, move as far away as possible. Don't be rude or embarrass people, but it is sensible  to put distance between yourself and them.

8. Do not rub your eyes, pick your nose or teeth if you have touched a surface that may be infected and not washed your hands. If this is something you are prone to, buy some anti viral wipes, if you can find any.

9. Use a litter picking stick to remove items that people may discard in your property, if you have a drive or front garden. Don't pick up discarded tissues and wipes with your hands.

10. Vodka is an effective antiviral disinfectant. If you  can't get hold of anti viral wipes and you are worried, soap and water is equally effective, but if you are out and about, why not take a packet of tissues and a flask of vodka. Most wipes simply use alcohol based disinfectants. A dab of vodka on a handkerchief will work equally as well if needed. A sad waste of vodka, but a handy tip. Make sure to tell your boss why you smell of booze though!

Have a great weekend, and stay safe. Bear  in mind you are still more likely to be run over crossing the road than you are to die of Covid-19.

Monday, 17 February 2020

Corona Virus - Read this article - it might just save your life

Note: This article was written in February 2020. Since then, some of the advice has changed, so I have edited it so that anyone finding the advice does not get mislead.

We have now seen cases of the Corona virus locally. Whilst there has been plenty of coverage of the virus, many people are very unsure of the risks and the best way of preventing it. There have also been wild claims, none of which are based on science or even common sense. So here is a summary of all the information you need to know.

How dangerous is the Corona virus.

The current estimate is that the Corona virus currently has an estimated 2% 1.4% mortality rate.  This may well be an overestimate as many may have contracted the virus and have not presented symptoms. This is also likely to drop as the virus and its treatment is better understood. Generally flu strains have a mortality rate of around 1%.

Who is most at risk

For healthy people with a working immune system, the risk to life from Corona virus appears to be low. That does not mean you will not get flu like symptoms and feel rotten, but you should be able to shale it off after a few days. However, if you are elderly or have a compromised immune system (for instance if you've been undergoing chemotherapy), then your risk levels will be heightened.(Young children are also more vulnerable as their immune systems are not fully developed This statement turned out to be incorrect, children seem to be most unlikely to contract the disease). If you have contracted the virus, be mindful of this.

Symptoms

Common signs of infection include respiratory symptoms, fever, cough, shortness of breath and breathing difficulties, Loss of taste and smell is another marker.

What should you do if you think you have contracted the Corona virus?

The advice from the NHS is to call 111. Do not go to the Doctor or A&E. If you live alone and don't have two weeks food in the cupboard (the advised isolation period), then you will need advice from the 111 service as to how you can get supplies without putting others at risk. As with any virus, it is important to remain hydrated and keep warm. I'd recommend reading the NHS guidelines fully when you have finished this blog https://www.gov.uk/guidance/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-information-for-the-public

Prevention

The NHS has given guideance. The most likely way of catching the virus is through contact on your hands. Someone coughs on their hand emitting active virus, they touch a doorknob, handrail or escalator rail and then you touch the same thing with your hand and rub your eye or pick your teeth.

Avoid close contact with anyone displaying any symptoms.

Wear face masks on public transport.

The message is that if you've touched anything which may have come into contact with the virus, then you need to take precautions. You also need to think of other people, which is why these are the most effective measures.

Do

  • cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve (not your hands) when you cough or sneeze
  • put used tissues in the bin straight away
  • wash your hands with soap and water often – use hand sanitiser gel if soap and water are not available
  • try to avoid close contact with people who are unwell

Don't

  • do not touch your eyes, nose or mouth if your hands are not clean
Is the government managing the crisis properly?

The honest answer is that it probably far too early to say, as there are always lessons to learn, but probably yes. The UK has a very well developed health service and is one of the best equipped to deal with pandemics. That doesn't mean that there are not lessons to learn or things that could be done better. It has been suggested that the Mayor of London and the government should ensure that all public spaces, such as rail/tube stations and other such places have antiviral hand gels  available and promenent signage informing the public to use it. If any of the information in this blog has been useful and it's the first time you've heard it, then that would seem to imply that they are not getting the message across.

(Note - It is now clear that the UK has had one of the most ineffective responses of a developed economy. It is probably too early to fully list the problems with the response, but having the highest number of deaths in Europe is clearly a massive failure by the government)

Is there a conspiracy to kill off the sick and elderly to save the Government money

This blog has seen some wild claims on the internet, stating that the virus was manufactured and part of a conspiracy to kill off those people who are 'economically ineffective'. For this to be true, the US, UK, EU, China, etc would all have to be part of the conspiracy and tens of thousands of people would have to be complicit. As humans live ever closer to each other and travel becomes easier and cheaper, we will constantly get exposed to new diseases from remote regions that would previously remain localised. Back in the 1970's, when I was studying A Level Biology, I worked for a couple of weeks at the National Institute for Medical Research. My role was as a lab porter in the immunology department. I recall a conversation with one of the professors over lunch as to whether the government would ever manufacture a doomsday virus to kill off people deemed surplus to the countries requirements. His response was very interesting. He pointed out that the effects of such a scheme would be completely unmanageable. The chaotic nature of how diseases infect a population would be unmanageable. It would be impossible to manufacture and distribute vaccines on a scale large enough to protect the elite without the general population getting tipped off.

He informed me, rather jokingly,  that if there ever was such a conspiracy, the virus would have a three day incubation period, followed by a two day asymptomatic infectious periood and a four day duration of illness for normal people. It would be sprayed at football matches and tube stations four days before Xmas. The logic being that Xmas is the time of year with least economic activity,  when people see their grannies around etc and when people have full larders, so the damage to the economy would be minimised.  It appears that the Corona virus does not meet any of these patterns. He pointed out that the people who such a scheme are likely to target are those least likely to be on the tube or at football matches, so it would be very difficult to make such a scheme work, unless you sprayed old folks homes, and that would be very difficult to get away with.

As doctors by definition care about public health, they would not play ball. Most people would not put their own grannies, babies and friends at risk. That doesn't mean people won't speculate, but it seems extremely unlikely.