Why doesn't Boris Johnson just tell us the truth about covid and vaccine passports?

 I have no doubt at all that by Monday, we will have major restrictions or a lockdown imposed on us. I also have no doubt at all that we'd have one now if there was not a by election today. Boris Johnson is terrified of losing the Stafford North byelection after the last few weeks. He knew that a new lockdown would be the final nail in the coffin of his campaign with die hard covid denying Tories. I'm sure that all of the scientific advice he has got over the last couple of days has been to put new restrictions in place to prevent our hospitals getting swamped. As the Omicron varian is doubling every two days, it is fair to say the damage, hospitalisations and deaths will be twice as bad as they should have been. I watched his press conference yesterday and I was bemused. It was called at the last minute and I expected new restrictions. What we got was bluff and bluster from Boris. I believe that he was going to announce new restrictions and changed his mind, at the last minute, for political reasons. In short, we have a Prime Minister, who I believe is putting his own job and his parties narrow political interests before those of the country.

As for Rishi Sunak, 21 months ago he was widely praised for the Furlough and other help for businesses. Now we are being thrown to the wolves. In my business, I've seen 75% of our studio bookings cancelled, as Xmas gigs, parties and events are cancelled. Musicians can't afford to rehearse without gigs. We've had a dire 2 years. In November, it seemed like we were finally getting back on track. December is a key month for us. Usually the month is jam packed with well paid gigs, so musicians get some funds to see them through the lean winter months of January and February when people are skint. We've all beeb torpedoe'd by the crisis. Without serious support, we will find ourselves in deep trouble. We can't blame Boris Johnson for emergence of Omicron in South Africa, but we can blame him for not having a plan in place, given that it was entirely predictable (Back in January, I predicted that this would happen (I was out by a month)  - 'November -The UK enters lockdown as new cases of the mutant virus run rampant.') We can also blame him for not having a working track and trace system that could have nipped the Omicron plague in the bud. 

Then there are the restrictions he has brought in. To me, wearing masks on public transport and in shops is entirely sensible. I also agree with vaccine passports, however, it enfuriates me that Boris hasn't explained the real reason why they are desireable and necessary. I can only assume that yet again, this is down to his fear of the mad Tory libertarian right. I was sceptical about them until I spoke to a well informed customer, who is a government advisor. The purpose of the vaccine passports is to prevent unvaccinated people, who are far more likely to need medical treatment, from attending superspreader events. The less unvaccinated people who get covid, the less strain on the health service. As Boris and his party are libertarian at heart, this does not sit well with his ideals and he knows it's too hard sell for the 100 odd hardliners in his party. 

I suspect that we'll have a three week 'circuit breaker' lockdown announced in the next couple of days. But hey, what do I know.

What Boris Johnson should be saying about Covid 19

I've not posted a blog on the subject of the pandemic for a little while now, but as I've been talking to someone who knows what they are talking about recently, I thought I'd just summarise what their opinion is on the way the government is currently handling the pandemic. I always find it fascinating talking to people who have a deeper understanding of such subjects.

So when and where might you want to consider wearing a mask.  There is an infectious virus circulating in our society. Lets consider what this means. Firstly lets consider what the term infectious means. It means that the disease is spread by being passed on from one person to another. Unlike cancer or lumbago, one person can infect a lot of other people in a short period of time. It is largely spread through airborne contact. The virus is usually dispersed in droplets when a host (infected person) coughs or sneezes. This is propelled through the air and if it is breathed in, it can cause an infection. When you see claims about the size of a virus, bear in mind these travel far further when propelled in droplets of flem from your nose and throat in the action of coughing. In open spaces, the virus is fairly well dispersed, in badly ventilated, confined spaces this is less true. So what should Boris Johnson be telling us to do if we don't want to get infected? Well the first thing is meet people from outside our household outside where possible. As to masks, if you are in a badly ventilated, confined space with lots of people, it would be wise to wear a mask. It would be wise to sanitise your hands when taking it off. It would be wise to disinfect it when it has been used or dispose of it. If you are outside and no one is coming within 2 meters of you, it will have no effect and is in effect a fashion statement.  Bear in mind, the main reason for wearing a mask is to stop your own coughs and sneezes spreading the virus to other people. We should consider it an act of good manners to wear one in confined, busy spaces. It is not a macho thing to wear or not wear one. It is just good manners and considerate. It may stop you causing harm to others.

Vaccination. There are many myths about vaccination. Some people talk about 'trusting their own immune system, rather than a vaccine'. This is a complete misunderstanding of science. A vaccine simply trains your immune system to recognise a vaccine. This means that when you come into contact with a virus, the immune system has a head start and knows to attack it. Vaccines do not make you immune to anything, they mean that your body deals with the infection more quickly. If you have a robust immune system, your body will deal with it very quickly, you will most likely have no symptoms and the infection will not develop to a level where you can pass it on. If your immune system is less robust, you may have mild symptoms and might pass it on before your body gets to grip with it. If your immune system is compromised, you may still get serious illness or die. You may also simply be unlucky and be more susceptible to the virus than other people. Whatever the situation, a vaccination will make you more, not less able to deal with an infection.

Why are people still getting infected when 80% of the adult population has been vaccinated? One in five adults haven't. We tend to associate with like minded people, so if you are vaccinated, it is likely most of your friends will be. If you have decided not to vaccinate, more of your friends are statistically less likely to be vaccinated. If you are not vaccinated, if your friends are not vaccinated, you are more likely to pass it on and suffer ill effects than a social circle that are vaccinated. In the UK there are nearly 60 million people, so millions are not vaccinated and many hang out together. That does not mean they will all infect each other, but there is a well of potential spread.

Why should fit, healthy people under 60 bother with vaccination as they are unlikely to die? There are three main reasons. The first is that it is possible that a mutation will emerge that will have more serious effects on that group. Vaccination reduced the prevalence, so mutations become less likely The second is that people under 60 can still become seriously ill and die. The third is because we really shouldn't want to risk passing it on to vulnerable people. We shouldn't push the vulnerable to the margins of society. In short it is the community minded thing to do.

Is there anyone who should not get vaccinated? I would recommend that everyone ha a doctor they trust. I trust mine. He stopped me from dying of cancer. If he says don't get vaccinated I wont. I don't know anyone who has been told by a GP not to get vaccinated, except one person who was pregnant during the early stages of the vaccination program. Ask your doctor if there is a genuine medical reason to be vaccinated. If you don't trust your doctor on the subject of vaccination, then you need a new doctor who you can trust.

Why are there so many anti vaxxers if the vaccine is safe? The internet is full of very loud anti vaccine campaigners. In the west, we live ina  free society and people have the right to be sceptical about anything. Many do not trust governments and 'big pharma'. Given the behaviour of some of our leaders, who can blame them. However, vaccines are not developed by Dodgy Prime Ministers. They are developed by large teams of people, many of whom have spent decades working for the benefit of humanity. I know a few people involved in medical research and they are sane, sensible people. They produce peer reviewed research and they place their professional credibility on the line when they do so. Sadly, the sceptics do not work under the same constraints.

Given the short development time, how can we be sure that vaccines are safe? Nothing is ever 100% safe.  Of course some people will get an adverse reaction to the vaccine, but statistically, this is far less likely to happen than a bad reaction to the virus. Given that over a billin people have been vaccinated, if it wasn't safe, we would start seeing hospitals filling up with people suffering side effects. We are not.

What are the chances of another lockdown? Boris Johnson does not want another lockdown. We are having what appears to be a rather strong economic bounce back, and the last thing he wants is that to grind to a halt. From what I can ascertain, the only reason Boris would want another Lockdown is if the NHS became overhwhelmed. It seems that the UK's high vaccine take up may spare us this.

So what should Boris be saying? I think his position on masks is absurd. We should be wearing them on crowded public transport services and other places where people are in close proximity in badly ventilated spaces. We should be sanitising our hands still. Vaccination is our way out of this mess and if we want to fully get back to a normal life, the more who are vaccinated the better. We need to take the heat out of the debate. When Aunty Peggy sends you an alarming Youtube video, respect the fact that she has a different view and don't get cross if she won't 'listen to reason'. Personally I'd give friends who have no vaccinated a bit of a wide berth at the moment, but that doesn't have to be done in an obvious way. Boris should set up a task force to counter vaccine scepticism with proper information produced by mainstream scientists. Personally I would like to see medical professionals called to account if they make claims that cannot be verified. It is the Prime Ministers job to show leadership. 

Have the pandemic and the lockdowns really gone away?

 So where are we as a nation following the lifting of the vast majority of covid restrictions? In the last month or so, I've been to Wembley Stadium, Tottenham Stadium and the Albert Hall. We've had several meals in London and I've met up with friends a few times in town for drinks. The one remaining area where there are a degree of restrictions and barriers is Foreign travel. A nephew of mine flew to Mexico for a long holiday, only to have to return more or less straight away, as it went onto the Red List. Many friends who love foreign holidays are simply not bothering.

The pandemic has had definite winners and losers. Anyone with a regular job, for a large, stable company, has continued earning money, had no travel costs, spent virtually nothing on lunches, drinks with friends, going out etc, for almost 18 months. Many are awash with cash. In Mill Hill, it seems every other house has scaffolding up and is having major renevations. The story is far less amenable for those who work for themselves, are in service or hospitality or music. The music industry in London has had it's heart ripped out. What we are now seeing is a major bounce back. The following are a few comments off a music industry chat group I belong to (these are not my comments)  "We're currently experiencing our busiest ever month." "The word on the street is that the industry has reached capacity in terms of resource and infrastructure. Studios are full. PA Hire companies have empty warehouses.", " The current consensus is that spring is going to be possibly the busiest ever time in live music in this country." This is all great news, because if the live music sector is bouyant, the London economy sector is bouyant. 

However, there is a huge elephant in the room. No one really knows if we are done with lockdowns and restrictions. Last summer we saw the virus retreat, only for it to roar back. The UK is seeing rates of infections edging up, but due to the vaccinations, we are not seeing hospitals overrun. The are two key issues. The first is, how long does the vaccine based immunity last and the second is what effect will the return of cold, dark nights, winter colds and flu and new variants have on all of this. None of us know. The NHS seemed to have a crisis every winter and with perhaps an additional 6-7,000 beds required for covid patients (assuming things stay where they are), is the NHS able to cope?

My guess is that if no vaccine resistant strains appear in the UK, we should be in an OK place to ride it through. The government is planning a booster jab for the most clinically vulnerable. We are not where we were a year ago, when Rishi Sunak launched the dangerous 'Eat out to Help Out' scheme. We actually have a proven, working vaccine. This does not provide 100% immunity and it does not stop every death. Nothing will. What it does, is mean that the danger posed by covid is massive;y reduced to the general population. With new treatments coming on line all of the time, we are getting to an ever better place.

But.... Would I bet my house on Boris not ruining Xmas again with another 'circuit breaker lockdown'? No I wouldn't. A new set of lockdowns would spell disaster for many areas of the economy that are just about starting to recover. Venues, promoters, crew and artists are just about getting to the point where they feel comfortable leaving the back up jobs they've taken. If real, well paid work has returned, then I'd be confident that any music business that has survived this far will be OK. If we are it by more restrictions, it would be a crushing blow to confidence. I am not quite sure that anyone will gamble quickly a third time on the industry recovering quickly. We must always balance the needs of society as a whole. It would be morally wrong to put anyone at undue risk. If we return to a point where the daily deaths are in the thousands and rising steeply, we would be faced with no alternative. I wouldn't envy Boris Johnson if those statistics started to appear, but we are clearly not there right now. 

The question we are all too afraid to ask is "Have the pandemic and the lockdowns really gone away?". None of us know. I've come to the conclusion that looking too long at social media will do nothing for good mental health and well being. There are people who genuinely believe we should still be in lockdown and those who believe we should never have been. Then there is every shade in the middle. It seems to me that British Government followed a long standing tradition when faced with a crisis. We completely balls it up at the start, but get our act together eventually and do just about OK. The likes of Dominic Cummings at Barnard Castle and Matt Hancock in his broom cupboard with the secretary are likely to be the abiding memories. The clapping for carers, the long nights for the scientists and researchers, the covid relief food parcels and all of the good things get sneered at, ignored or forgotten as the dust settles. It strikes me that this is how humans deal with bad things. We only really remember the trivial, unless we are totally traumatised. 

To summarise. My view is that you'd have to be very brave to bet against some sort of return to restrictions, but they are not inevitable. If we are reasonably sensible, wear masks on crowded public transport, meet outside if we can, wash our hands etc, we are less likely to see a a return, so why would you not do that? If we were all just a bit more careful than we had been before the pandemic, that would not really be much of a burden and it may be the difference between a good Xmas and a very miserable one. I lost two beloved family members, several friends and a few long standing customers. Whilst I am naturally a risk taker, I would not put others at risk, which is why I'll wear a mask for the foreseeable in crowded public places. 

Wembley Stadium, covid19 precautions and scams to sell beer (updated)

 For my sins, I went to Wembley on Saturday evening, to watch a Manchester City B team lose in the Charity Shield. It was great to be in a busy football stadium once more, but there were many observations to be made regarding the covid precautions (or lack of them) and the way football fans are treated.

Firstly, on our ticket, we were advised to arrive between 3.15 and 3.45, a minimum of one hour before the start of the match. I'd checked the Wembley site to see what the 'covid protocol' was. It was less than clear but implied proof of double vaccination or a recent Lateral Flow covid test. I have a vaccine passport, my son did a lateral flow test. We arrived at around 4pm. There was no check of anything, we just walked into the stadium. By ensuring fans arrived ridiculously early, we were then left with nothing much to do except for drinking beer and eating pies. Large crowds gathered by the bars, drinking and singing football chants. I couldn't help but think that it would have been more 'covid secure', if they'd told us we had to drink the beers in our seats. At least we'd all have been outside and no one would be singing in confined spaces. 

There was also only about half of the normal outlets selling food and drinks open, ensuring that there were lengthy queues. There were signs everywhere stating that masks must be worn, but almost no one was boethering, not least because you can't eat pies and drink beer with a mask on.

At full time there was the usual dash for the exit by the losing fans, again chanting as we made our way down the stairs and back to Wembley Park station. I was quite amazed that there was no efforts made at all to get a more orderly departure organised. 

I am not an expert in such matters, but I would suggest that whilst we are living with covid, the government and the football authorities should give some thought to the safety of fans. Here are my observations.

1. Take temperatures and check covid validtaion on entry.  I was amazed that this wasn't done.

2. If fans are being advised to arrive early, then allow them to take beer onto the terraces. I would ban drinking of beer in the enclosed spaces. This way, they can sing and chant in an environment where the risk is to some degree mitigated. I would shut bars at kick off. I would also limit purchases so fans can't stockpile beers.

3. Make some effort to mitigate the end of match crush. Ask fans to depart row by row. 

4. Ensure that there are ample outlets selling food and drink, so queues are mitigated.

It was great to be back at football, but I felt that Wembley were not taking covid seriously. With tens of thousands of fans in the stadium, it most certainly did not feel comfortable to me. I felt that they wasted my time, forced me into a potentially risky environment and skimped on covid security. It really wasn't good enough in my opinion. If Wembley believe that Covid is not an issue, don't make us get there up to two hours early. I felt that the early arrival time was purely a ruse to sell beers. We are either taking covid seriously still, or we are not.

I've shared this with my MP and the culture secretary.

****** Updated 15.20 9/8/2021

I have received a comment back from my Hendon MP Dr Matthew Offord. I thought I'd share it

"Thank you for your comments, which have been noted."

I await Mr Dowden's comments. 

The lessons we can learn from Madeira and New Zealand about beating Covid

 I've just returned from a two week holiday in Madeiria. We chose Madeira because it is just about the only place that you can enjoy the sun and not have to self isolate. It is only when you see how other nations do things, that you realise that we have a lot to learn. I spoke to a friend in New Zealand over the weekend and it is clear that some nations have got it right and some have got it wrong. 

You may say "well they are only small nations, it is easier for them to control an outbreak". This misses the point that the many of the measures they have done are so obvious and so straightforward that there is no earthly reason that we couldn't do the same thing. It is worth noting that China, despite having the first outbreak, got to grips with it very quickly once it was clear what they were facing. China has a registered death count of 4,634 around one tenth of the count we've had with one hundred times the population. 

I am not an epidemiologist, but having been to a place that has got the disease under control it really isn't rocket science to see why. All along there has been strong directiona and leadership, with clear rules, which everyone stuck to. They locked down harder initially, which allowed them to get rid of the virus. They put measures in place to keep it out. New Zealand has done remarkably similar things.

Here is what they do in Madeira

1. Testing on arrival. When you arrive in Madeira, you either have to have a certificate stating that you've had a clear Covid test within the last 72 hours, or you have to have a free test at the airport. Getting registered and having the test takes around 30 minutes. You then have to make your way to where you are staying until you get your result, which takes approx six hours.

2. If you are clear, you get regular texts to update your status, if you are well, you simply say you are OK. If you show symptoms, you have to report for another test and self isolate until the result is forthcoming. 

3. If you fail, you either stay where you are until you are clear, or the Madeira govt put you up in a hotel and pay for your board and lodgings. 

4. Everyone respects the protocol of wearing masks and sanitising hands. We saw no cases of people refusing. It seems strange that so many people in the UK have conditions that prevent them from wearing masks, but no one in Madeira has the same issue?

The Maderia Web site says

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Since the beginning of the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic no fatalities have been reported and Madeira Island has one of the lowest infection rates in Europe. Wearing a mask is compulsory only in shopping centres, shops, public transport or enclosed areas. There is no need to wear a mask if you’re walking the streets, beaches, or any outside activity. Restaurants and Bars with open air esplanades are also mask free.

When it was clear what was happening, Madeira closed their airport to all flights and put new arrivals under quarantine. The timeline of the outbreak and measures is summarised below. I felt quite ashamed when I thought about the chaotic mess we have. There night time and leisure industries are recovering. Ours are in chaos and turmoil.The root cause of the outbreak in the UK was unrestricted travel. This still hasn't been addressed. Personally I think no one should board a plane without being tested. I would also state that people arriving in the UK should not attend any mass gatherings of people for 14 days (conferences, sporting events, religious services etc). We need far better testing and tracing and we need mandatory fines for people who break quarantine. 

Anyway, this is the timeline of how Madeira dealt with the problems and reopened their tourist business.

16th March The President of the Regional Government of Madeira announced today, March 16, that there is no case of coronavirus or covid-19 reported on the Island of Madeira. To try to maintain Madeira virus free, all passengers arriving at Cristiano Ronaldo Madeira Airport will be under mandatory quarantine for 14 days, until further notice. This means that all Tour Operators are cancelling their flights to Madeira and Porto Santo except for return flights for tourists already on the Island. Hopefully soon things will returns to normal and Madeira will maintain it corona free status and welcome visitors to Madeira’s always Summer Climate. We will keep you updated in the coming days.

19th March Madeira registers two new positive cases of coronavirus. No deaths have been recorded. In total 3 positive cases are confirmed. A tourist arriving from Holland 5 days ago and a Madeiran resident arriving from Dubai, both quarantined immediately. The Government of the Portuguese Republic declares state of emergency as of 00.00 today 19 March, for 15 days. We hope that with this measure, we are able to contain the spread of the virus on Madeira Island.

29th March As of today, Madeira has 39 positive cases of COVID-19. So far, 198 suspected cases have been identified of which 155 tested negative. Further statistics show that there are 766 people under ‘active surveillance’ with a further 1462 people in ‘self-surveillance.’ Only one (1) coronavirus patient remains hospitalized in Madeira, although without the need for intensive care. The other 38 patients remain in isolation, 34 in their homes and the four Dutch citizens at Quinta do Lorde. No deaths due to COVID-19 infection were recorded in Madeira. The President of Madeira, Miguel Albuquerque issued a new mandate with regards to restrictions on movement and social isolation to contain the spread of the coronavirus. From 00.00 on the 31st of March the following measures come into force: 1 - From the 31st of March only essential business may remain open. 2 - All Hotel suspicious cases must undergo compulsory 14-day isolation period. 3 - A reduction from 120 to 100 passengers to airports Madeira Cristiano Ronaldo and Porto Santo allowed per week. All passengers are directed to comply with mandatory 14-day quarantine 4 - Reorganisation of the health system. Cessation of mobility between existing health units to prevent cross-contamination. 5 - Reinforcement of circulation measures and social gatherings are strictly limited to two people.

30th April No New cases of COVID-19 for the sixth consecutive days and NO DEATHS recorded in Madeira Island. The total number of positive cases remains at 86, with 43 patients having recovered. The number of active cases is down to 43. 176 cases await laboratory results. The emergency state ends and the state of calamity begins in Madeira from 00:00 on Sunday night, for a period of 15 days. The president of the Regional Government of Madeira, Miguel Albuquerque declares the situation of calamity and announced the reopening of some economic activities, hairdressers (appointment only), services and shopping centres. The strict measures that come into force are: - The use of a mask will be mandatory in all commercial spaces where there is a greater concentration of people, such as public transport, shopping centres, schools. - Workers must take temperature twice a day and maintain social distance. - All establishments must operate at one third of the capacity. - Visits to care homes are not allowed. - Restaurants will continue to operate in take-away. - Beaches remain 'closed'. - The reopening of economic activities will be evaluated weekly.

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4th May Madeira has reached it's tenth consecutive day without any new cases of COVID-19, maintaining the number of 86 positive cases, 48 people have recovered, thus making a total of 38 active cases of infection. At the moment, 71 suspected cases await laboratory results. No deaths have been recorded. The region reopens some economic activities, such as shops, hair salons, barbers, and shopping centres, with tight restrictions established by the Regional Government. The reopening immediately imposes the obligation for both businesses and individuals to social distancing regulations, the use of masks in all closed spaces, in public transport and temperature screening of workers twice a day. Clear safety rules regarding the hygiene of employees, customers, disinfection of spaces and trying on or exchange of clothes, footwear, accessories and jewellery are prohibited. Cristiano Ronaldo and Porto Santo Airports will continue to operate a reduced number of two weekly flights and a maximum of 100 passengers allowed to disembark per week, maintaining the mandatory14-day quarantine for all. The ports and marinas of the archipelago will remain closed.

 

8th May There are no new cases of coronavirus for the second consecutive day and no deaths recorded in Madeira. The total number of positive cases remains at 90 and the number of recovered patients has increased to 52, since the hospitalized patient is now recovered, making a total of 38 active cases of infection. The president of the Regional Government of Madeira, Miguel Albuquerque announces today that churches and all other places of worship in Madeira will reopen to the public on Saturday, May 9th, limiting the capacity to one third and with strict measures in place. People must comply with social distancing rules, alcohol-based hand disinfectant is required before entering the church and the use of a mask is mandatory. After service, people should return home and avoid gatherings in the churchyard or surrounding areas. Porto Santo beach reopens under strict rules from Sunday, May 10th. The social distancing between bathers is mandatory and group gatherings is prohibited. Facilities, bars, cafes and restaurants along the beach will remain closed. The mandatory quarantine for Porto Santo will be lifted on the 18th of May for all residents of the archipelago. The Madeira Private Hospital and Madeira Medical Centre will resume their normal services starting Monday, May 11th. Entry will be allowed after a questionnaire and Temperature screening, mask and hand disinfectant are mandatory. Safety distance is also signalled in all services areas. MMC will resume all its services: clinical analysis, permanent care (adults), face-to-face consultations, imaging exams, cardiology, gastroenterology and nursing care, from Monday to Friday from 7:30 am to 9 pm, and Saturdays from 7:30 am to 2 pm. As for HPM, all exams and face-to-face consultations for adults and children will be activated, as well as permanent paediatric care, from 9 am to 12 am. As of May 11th, a series of individual sports will be allowed, while always maintaining social distancing, such as sport and recreational fishing, surfing, bodyboard, canoeing, tennis, motor racing, etc. Public and Forest spaces, recommended walking routes and some public gardens, such as Quinta do Santo da Serra, Quinta Magnolia, Jardim das Madalenas, Jardim do Amparo e Jardim de Santa Luzia will also reopen on May 11th. Maintaining all Facilities, bars, cafes and restaurants closed. Gyms will resume limited activity starting Tuesday, May 12th. Group classes can only take place outdoors at the condition to respect social distancing. Spaces are limited to one third of its capacity, showers and changing rooms remained closed. Members are only allowed to stay inside the gym for one hour, each member will be required to clean and sanitize equipment after each use. Museums, libraries, galleries, cultural centres and archives reopens Thursday, May 14th, with mandatory use of masks, hand disinfectant for all employees and visitors. Routine cleaning and disinfecting of regularly touched surfaces must be frequent and recorded. Beaches, bathing complexes and sea access reopens Friday, May 15th, if the pandemic situation continues to evolve favorably. More information in regards to safety rules, social distancing and hygiene will be announced next Thursday. Restaurants, bars, cafes and terraces may reopen on Monday, May 18th. The operating conditions will be announced at the end of next week.

 

 31st May Madeira records no new COVID-19 cases in 26 days and no deaths. Cumulative total of confirmed cases remains at 90, with 76 recovered cases, bringing the total number of 14 active cases of infection. From June 1, 2020 until June 30, 2020 - In order to avoid mandatory quarantine for 14 days, all travellers entering Madeira and Porto Santo must present a PCR test, issued no more than 72 hours prior to their travel date, confirming that they do not have COVID-19. Madeira nightlife venues, clubs and bars with terraces and outdoor spaces reopen from Monday, June 1st, at 50% capacity with strict safety precautions. Clubs can only be open until 2 am. Most shopping centres and shops reopen to the public, restaurants and bars can reopen from the 18th of May. International tourist travel should begin around the end of June, and many hotels and resorts hope to open in July. The beaches, parks, gardens are now open to the public and all road travel restrictions have been lifted.

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Gasping for breath in the post covid world

I am sure I was not the only person reading this who watched the Prime Minister's final press conference of the Covid19 lockdown era. For all of us, this was a period unlike any other in our lives. I lost an aunt, a friend lost a daughter and our studio lost a much loved customer to the disease. For those conspiracy theorists out there, who claim no one has died of the disease, please note that none of these passings were expected, although as we all know, only the Good Lord knows the hour of our death. All I know is that people who were fine at the start of the year are gone and they tested positive for the virus.

Things have gradually been easing up. Last Tuesday, we reopened our music studio business for limited solo practice sessions. Since then we've had around 50 customers pass through the door. In cash terms, this accounts for around 7% of our normal turnover, it is unsustainable to operate at this level in the long term but a necessary first step to get us back on track. We anticipate that things won't be anywhere near normal levels of business until at least September, but who knows. We have a plan in place to manage this situation. At this level of trade, the income pays the wages of the cleaner, and buys me a curry from the Mill Hill Tandoori to eat when I get home. Fortunately my excellent team are on furlough, so they can pay their bills. We did not reopen for the cash, we are doing it because musicians, especially drummers, need to play their instruments, make noise and be free from the distractions you get in your bedroom. We recognised that many need the opportunity to get out of their 'bubble' and it is clearly good for mental health to play in a studio. About half of the customers we've seen are professional musicians, who have had recordings and tours cancelled, who have had little or no income for three months. Some have taken advantage of the furlough scheme, some haven't. The fact that it only paid out for the self employed in June caused many a great amount of financial pain, not everyone has sympathetic Landlords. I spoke to one drummer, who spends his life touring the world, playing with some of the best known artists. He told me that he'd had to tap his parents up for cash, just to survive. This is a virtuoso on top of his game, someone who has appeared over 100 times on TV, played with some of the best know artists on the planet and someone, who in normal times, is able to pick and choose his jobs. As with many musicians, he had a busy autumn and winter, took off January and February and was just getting ready to commence a world tour in March, when lockdown hit. His expected earnings for 2020 went from very healthy to zero in the space of two weeks. The tour has been postponed to next year, but the mortgage payment, the electricity bills, the finance payment on the vehicle, the food bills, none of these have gone away.

On the day we opened, he booked two six hour sessions. We had a long chat. He had been stuck in his flat for the duration. His girlfriend and child live elsewhere in London. He hadn't seen them, except by Zoom for the first few week. His girlfriend was isolating with her elderly and ill parents. She was, quite rightly, unable to see him. He has an electronic kit, one which he played through headphones, but as any drummer will tell you, this is just not the same. At the end of the two day session, he said that "it has been the first time I felt human for three months".

There were a few similar stories from our customers. Perhaps the most heartbreaking is one who is a professional tour manager. Again, he's had no income. To add to the woes, his van was broken into. Clearly there was an attempt to steal it which was interrupted. Sadly the criminals did over £1,000 worth of damage, a huge sum when you have no money coming in. As far as I am concerned, people who take away a persons tools of the trade are scumbags of the worst kind. Doing it during a pandemic is even worse.

Another customer replied, when asked how they were coping said 'gasping for breath'. It will be interesting to see what happens when we emerge on the 4th. Will the pubs be packed, with queues around the corner? Or will we all be too scared to venture out. I contacted the singer in my band, to ask when he'd be ready for rehearsals. His response was that he felt the restrictions had been lifted far too soon. He isn't ready. I suspect that he won't be the only one.

People have asked me how I am? The truth is that it hasn't really affected my mental health greatly. Since 2011, I've been living with the monkey of cancer on my back.My big concern was the MRI scan I had in May. That was my main worry and once that was out of the way, I was able to relax a tad.

For the first month of lockdown, I was drinking too much and not doing anything apart from walking the dogs, cooking and sunbathing. Then I realised that I'd put on weight and I needed to pull my socks up. It was nothing but laziness and sloth. I wrote a blog stating that I was going to sort it out. I went back to my 3-4 days off alcohol a week, cutting out the snack and doing the 10,000 steps. My weight is now back under sixteen stone. I want to get it under fifteen, but that is a hill to climb. Getting the studios reopened has given me focus and recording our song of support for Black Lives Matter also gave me a boost



So now the studios are opening and sooner or later we will have live music back. I am itching to play. The False Dots last performed over six months ago on the 14th December. It is too long.

Time to get a grip on the Corona Virus shambles

Audrey Shaw

Take a deep breath, count to a thousand, then try and write a few coherent words.

Yesterday, I wrote a tribute to my Auntie Audrey, who passed away on Tuesday evening. I wrote this for her family and for her friends, to try and put a smile on their face. I didn't want to speak about her illness and the circumstances of her death. That was not on the agenda. However, as Audrey was someone with strong views and someone who spent her life believing in fairness, justice and social responsibility, I also know that she would not rest in peace until I said what I am about to say.

Audrey was eighty nine years old. She was in good health for a lady of her age, until the Sunday before last whens he had a stroke. I spoke to her a couple of days later. She called as it was our wedding anniversary. She told me she was having physio, and she was hoping to leave hospital within a couple of weeks. The question was where she would be going. Would she be staying with one of her daughters or would she go home and they'd take turns to look after her. It all seemed rather positive. Then last Friday, we got the news which I guess everyone dreads. She had Covid19. It was clear that this had been picked up in hospital. The place Audrey had been taken to get better had resulted in her demise. The stats on the news said 761 people had died. Without Audrey, it would have been 760. She is just one small number in a very large number to most people. To us, she was the number that mattered the most. There are 760 other families, with stories, with grief, just the same. But for us, Audrey was the focus. That is why it is personal.

There are many things that we can say about the way the UK has dealt with the crisis. There are many people we can commend. The vast majority of the population, who are following the rules. The NHS workers, the key workers, the old veteran who has walked around his garden 100 times and raised £12 million. I could go on, but you get the drift.

Then there is the government. I will refrain from criticising Boris Johnson, he has been out of the picture and is unwell. We will never know if things would have been better if he had been well, but out of a sense of fair play, I will give him the benefit of the doubt. Then there is the Chancellor. The blow to the economy has been devastating, but he has the air of a man with a grip on the situation. I can say this, as his measures have directly impacted our business in a way which means we feel confident we will survive the crisis and when we reopen, twelve people will return to work. I 100% realise that some will not be so lucky, but given the speed and scale of the crisis, he seems to have done his best.

Then there is the Health secretary, Matt Hancock. He has one job. It isn't easy, but if you don't want the responsibility, don't put your hand up when the jobs are being divvied up by The Prime Minister. The sad truth is that with any objective analysis, he has completely failed the country. His job is to make sure the NHS is fit for purpose to deal with whatever challenges get thrown at it. His job is to listen to scientific advisers, organise supply chains, make sure the chancellor gives him the dosh to pay the bills. The sad truth, and what happened to Audrey is proof of this, is that he has failed us.

Whilst no one expected the Covid19 crisis in December, the job of the health secretary is to ensure that robust plans are in place for such things. Humanity has been at war against infectious diseases since we first evolved from monkeys (or Adam popped into the Garden of Eden, if you prefer that version). The fact we are still here, is a testament to our robust design and our adaptability as a species. Over the last 1,000 years, medicine has evolved from hocum pokum to a precise science. We know that every few years a new, infectious virus will emerge. We know that it will take us a pweriod to develop vaccines. We know that distancing and isolation are the only effective means of blocking transmission until a vaccine has been developed, if the virus takes hold in the population. We know that when people deal with such dangerous pathogens, they need effective equipment (now called PPE). In the late 1970's I worked at the National Institute for Medical Research. I arranged myself some unofficial work experience, working in the immunology department as a lab porter. At the time, some labs had pathogens such as Green Monkey Fever. The protocols were strict. I discussed the response to plagues and diseases with the scientists. I was writing a project for my A level Biology course on immunology. I am not an expert, but we know this stuff. The government built the NIMR in Mill Hill (Now the Crick Institute) so we'd be able to deal with this. Governments, both Labour and Conservative, have funded research and built resilience into the system, so that when the day came we would be prepared.

And that day has come. How has the UK responded? Our key NHS staff and care workers do not have PPE. We have been woefully slow in ramping up testing to anything like the levels we need. Th sad truth, brutal though it is, is that my Aunt was infected by someone in the hospital where she was taken for treatment. This was not inevitable. The sad truth was that she caught it either because she came within six feet of someone with the disease that did not have proper PPE on, or she was given something that had not been sanitised and had been in contact with someone who had covid. I don't know who this was. A doctor, a nurse, another patient, the tea maker, the cleaner, who knows. All I know is that if all of those people had simply applied the rules we've known for decades, then we'd b planning her discharge rather than her funeral.

Matt Hancocks job is to make sure Audrey and the other 760 people whop passed away are safe in hospital. Many won't have contracted it in hospitals or from health workers, but the lack of PPE and testing means we don't know which workers have the disease and we haven't given them the tools to protect their patients. Both patients and workers have been placed in danger.

I did not need to be like this. It seems that in Germany and New Zealand, for example, they got a grip on the situation early. They have PPE and they have testing. What are they doing that we haven't been doing? The answer is simple. They have just been properly organised, recognised the risks and done something about it.

Every day, I've listened to the 5pm conference. Every day the news is the same. Not enough PPE, not enough tests, it will always be better next week, but the press is full of horror stories. There is no earthly reason why the NHS should not have a stockpile of PPE to last for the next two years, let alone two months. If Germany and South Korea can source tests that works, the excuse we hear that we can't is clearly nonsense. One question that has been asked time and again is why people returning from covid hotspots have not been tested and quarantined? Maybe I'm stupid, but there has not been a single satisfactory answer. I've no idea whether the scientific advisers wheeled out are under orders to tow the line or whether they believe what they say, but it makes no sense.

I'm happy to observe the rules on lockdown for the greater good. I am one of the lucky ones with a garden and a dog and a guitar, so there is stuff to do. The UK has been on a mission to build as many tiny flats as possible, with no outdoor space. I've long felt this was a folly. Now we see millions cooped up in these, with no respite at all. Heaven alone knows what this is doing for their mental health. I have sympathy for those that seek an hours sunbathing in the park, on their own, yards from other people. I don't join in the clarion call on social media criticising those out on their bikes. The bottom line is that they are highly unlikely to infect anyone, as if they are in the road, they will be far more than six feet from pedestrians.

Another example of the drift is the questions as to what will happen when lockdown ends. The answer has been "That is some time away so we will not discuss it". This displays a lack of trust in the British public. It means one of two things. The first is that they have no plan. That is terrifying and gross incompetence. The alternative is that they have a plan and they don't trust us to be told what it is, as they think we are too stupid to realise that it won't be used for a few weeks. As someone who runs a business, this is an almost impossible situation. Lets say that the plan is that they will let everyone who has no underlying health conditions under 65 out, so long as those who are vulnerable are properly isolated from them, I will be in a position to start planning my staff rota when we reopen. I will also have some idea of how many of our customers we will be seeing, which will affect our opening times. If they say no more than 10 people in one place, then that means a very different thing for musicians than if we are only allowed 4. That will have a huge impact on our business. There are millions of other businesses in the same position. Having some idea of the duration and the exit strategy means I can plan the level of debt my business needs, and will dictate arrangements we make with some of the people we pay as part of our normal business.

My personal view is that if we had some sort of checklist as to the risks we personally were at and what risks we posed to other people, we could make an informed decision. As an example, in our house there are six people, all between 18 and 57, who have not got compromised immune systems. So long as we keep away from people who are at risk, we are unlikely to suffer serious issues. I am not saying we should be let out just yet, as the virus is still at its peak, but I would guess that we meet the criteria for release from lock down before people who have underlying conditions or are elderly. If we were given a heads up, then we could start planning. We could also start to generate the wealth that will eventually get the country back on its feet. I have been involved with local churches to try and sort out a community response. It is hard to plan when we have no idea when this will lift or who it will lift for.  A competent government would give us some idea of a how we can deal with it. Maybe we should all be given passes that say what we can and can't do. Travelling on public transport is an example. I don't need to at the moment, so maybe that should be enforced by law. My guess is that most transmission was on public transport, at busy supermarkets and in pubs and clubs before lockdown. It is crazy that there are no rules for small shops. I have witnessed some appallingly stupid behaviour in these recently. Maybe if the rules were laid out, then lock down could be raised earlier with sensible rules still in place. I'm not an expert, these are just musings, but I want to be treated like an adult.


I believe all of this is a smokescreen to deflect criticism from the fact that the health secretary is out of his depth and failing the nation. I don't think he's a criminal. He's just someone who has failed to step up. This has been clear for weeks. The answer is simple. The Government should ask someone within their ranks to step up and take over, who can display some sort of competence and who can get a plan together quickly. Personally I don't care who it is so long as they can get a grip. Surely there must be someone within the ranks of Tory MP's and Peers who can demonstrate such competence. If they don't, can the Labour Party, Lib Dems, SNP or anyone else lend them someone till this is over.

When we last had such a crisis, Winston Churchill made Clement Attlee his deputy. They appointed Lord Beaverbrook, owner of the Daily Express armaments minister. Within weeks, the country had been completely transformed onto a war footing and Spitfires were being produced faster than the Luftwaffe could shoot them down. Pilots from the Commonwealth, Poland, Czechoslovakia and even the USA were drafted in. That's what happens when you have competent people in charge.

The horrific truth is that people are dying and for no good reason. This isn't through malice, it is through sheer incompetence. The government needs to get a grip.