This week we saw Jeremy Corbyn launch a new political party. Rather imaginatively named "Your Party" it has certainly caught the attention of those on the left of the Labour Party (and those who left the party because they were on the left and had had enough). It now has an email list with half a million signed up supporters. That is more than twice the number of people who have PAID to join Reform. If they all dig into their wallets, when the party actually starts to exist and you can join, it will be the biggest party in the UK. It will still only be around 1% of the population, but my guess is that they will largely be politically motivated people, who are willing to work hard as activists. What does "Your party" actually stand for? Despite Jeremy Corbyn being leader of the Labour party for several years, it occurred too me that most of us don't really know what he stands for. Is he pro or anti rejoin? Who does he support in the Ukraine war? Does he support Hamas, or is he simply someone who wants to see Palestinians have a nation? Would he renationalise water, rail, BT, gas & electricity? Does he support mass immigration, or as a Union man would he restrict it to maintain members pay & conditions? Does he think women can have a willy? You may have your own opinion of what Corbyn believes on these matters, but I have keenly watched Corbyn and I am not at all sure. It is pretty clear what many of his supporters views are on these matters, but Corbyn has been far less vocal publicly than you would imagine. I suspect this is because he hoped to be let back into Labour. Unlike when he was Labour leader, he can actually speak his mind. I'd love to interview him for the Barnet Eye and ask him directly. I think that a hard left approch to some of these, such as Nationalisation would be big vote winners. Issues like support for trans people would be more divisive for his supporters, as some are very pro trans rights and others are militant left wing feminists. When Hamas launched the October 7th attacks, Corbyns views on Israel seemed to be at the absolute margins of British politics.What has transpired since, with the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, has lead many corades of Corbyn to proclaim "Gezza was right". I am not sure the majority of British voters are behind Corbyns traditional pro Palestinian viewpoint, but it is clear that many who were horrified by the 7th October attacks have lost sympathy and patience with the policies of the current Israeli government. I was chatting with someone who had been four square behind Israel until relatively recently, who said that he simply couldn't support a regime in Israel that lets babies who were not even born when Sept 7th happened starve. The current Israeli regime had until recently been able to claim that if you didn't support the policies of the current regime, you were an anti semite. It appears to me that this has worn thin. In the last week or so, I've seen more than a few Jewish friends on Facebook, who have never been critical of Israel previously saying "not in my name". Of course there are plenty who still support the regime, and claim that Hamas are entirely to blame, but my reading of the room is that this view is rapidly losing traction. The harsh truth is that the goodwill towards the Israeli regime, which followed the 7th Oct attacks is dissipating amongst those who are not hardline supporters of either Israel or the Palestinian cause.
My view? The Netenyahu regime does not represent all Jews or even all Israelis. It failed massively in letting the 7th October attacks happen. I have spoken to an Israeli friend, familiar with their army and seccurit, who tells me that he is familiar with the region and the location of the attacks. He says that the idea that Hamas could run riot for so long is incomprehensible. The Israelis have all manner of security measures in place to ensure such a thing simply cannot happen. They had informers in Gaza, listening posts, drones, watchtowers, sensors, army units on 24 hour standby, attack helicopters ready to take off. His view was that if the Hamas breach lasted for more than ten or fifteen minutes, without a massive response, something was simply not right. I am not going to speculate as to what, but he tells me that the fact that the current regime did not lose power immediately was a disgrace.
As to Hamas. They are not Palestine or the Palestinian people. They do not stage elections and God help Palastinian in Gaza who opposes them. I have no sympathy with the apologists who excuse them. As best I can tell, they launched the attacks as they knew what the Israeli reaction would be and they are happy with it. They gambled, correctly it seems, that if they hung on long enough, sooner or later world opinion would swing against Israel. The fact that the French have said they will recognise the state of Palestine confirms that this strategy is working.
I can't see how there can ever be peace when you have Hamas and Netenyahu. I simply don't think the world would support the complete destruction/relocation of Palestinians in Gaza. I don't think Netenyahu can back down from his policies as the consequences for him personally would be rather difficult, to say the least. I see no way out of this with the current players controlling the chess board. However, history tells us that sometimes the likes of Gerry Adams and Ian Paisley can work together and sort things out, so maybe there is a glimmer of hope. Donald Trump needs some good news. He is, perhaps, the only person who can broker a deal. If he succeeds, he surely will get the Nobel prize, to gold plate and hang on the wall. But only the greatest optimists on the planet expect that to happen.
But this blog is not about the Middle East. It is about the UK and our politics. My purpose for giving my analysis, is that charges of anti semitism destroyed Corbyn as leader of Labour. It is really important to understand that if Corbyn plays his cards right, he can make the case that he wasn't being anti semitic in his criticism of Israel and what has happened has justified this. I am not passing an opinion on whether this is correct, simply predicting that this is the line he will take. It is no coincidence that he has chosen this moment to launch his new party. If Corbyn has read the British public well, this may bear dividends for him. In short, what seemed to be a Kryptonite spear through his heart may have become his secret weapon.
If his new party gets its act together, he may get 30-40 defections from his colleagues on the left, some of whom are already suspended. Labour activists and branches are far more left leaning that Keir Starmer and his cabinet. There are plenty of trades unions with cash to fund a new left wing party and activists and resources to staff it. If Corbyn can persuade them to jump ship, then Starmer is in huge trouble. If, and this is a big if, the British public decides Corbyn is not the anti semite bogeyman we were warned about and he was actually right about Israel all along, then we may well see the biggest Political resurrection in 2000 years. The launch of "Your Party" has been ridiculed, but I would caution anyone who dismisses it as a bunch of fringe loony lefties, that there are a huge number of people on the left who do not like Starmer and would be more than happy to cheer Corbyn at Glasonbury again.
And then there is the right. Reform are ahead in the polls. We are seeing riots outside asylum hotels. We are seeing councils calling for the closure of these hotels. The hard right have successfully managed to conflate asylum seekers with rapists and child molesters. Whilst the British re tolerant and would never riot against refugees fleeing tyranny, no one wants a hotel full of rapists and nonces on their doorstep. I doubt that any of the protestors really think all of the residents of these hotels are sex offenders, but no one can blame people for feeling uneasy about the fact that some may be. I happen to think that the hard right and the protestors have not thought this through properly. If the hotels close, no one will be deported any quicker. They will simply be given council housing and dispersed and will be even harder to track. But Nigel Farage and Reform don't care about this obvious problem with their protests. In fact it plays well to their agenda. They are happy to shaft British working class people in need of social housing, if it plays well to their political agenda. Whereas we are not sure what Corbyn's answers were to the questions posed - Is he pro or anti rejoin? Who does he support in the Ukraine war? Does he support Hamas, or is he simply someone who wants to see Palestinians have a nation? Would he renationalise water, rail, BT, gas & electricity? Does he support mass immigration, or as a Union man would he restrict it to maintain members pay & conditions? Does he think women can have a willy? - I think we all know exactly where Farage stands on most of these (possibly with the exception of Ukraine and Nationalisation).
I am going to say something that may be shocking about Nigel Farage. I do not think he would become a dictator if he ever got into No 10. I think he'd be a disaster, because he is, like Corbyn, a perennial oppositionist. A man who exists to say the horrible things that the likes of Starmer are too scared to elucidate. I believe a Reform government would be complete chaos, spooked markets, eternal legal challenges, cabinet reshuffles, MP's resigning over scandals, etc. Unless they can attract a few decent Tories, they will have no real experience of government or dealing with the Civil Service.
But, and here is the big problem. Reforms biggest problem is that it is a one man band. Farage is a good communicator and a larger than life figure. His party has no one else anywhere near his stature. It has all manner of characters who are completely unknown to us. I don't think anyone would disagree that they do not attract people from the Centre of British Politics. It is people from the right of the Tories who largely make up the numbers of members and activists. Of course in the Red Wall seats, many of the voters are disaffected leftists, who feel shafted by the establishment. If Corbyn gets his act together, he may shaft Reform by giving these voters a home back on the left, but it is far too easy to say.
But my big fear is that Reform will be the largest of many parties, Farage will cobble together a government that falls apart, he will resign and then what? The next election will be in 2028-29. My big fear is not what happens then, but what happens in the election after that one. I can see a scenaruo where a Reform government is formed, implodes and what follows it the last British democratic election and a dictatorship. I have no idea what shape that will take. I dount we've even heard of the players who may emerge. But with the fragmentation of the right and left, we might see a situation where the only way to form a government is with a coalition of half a dozen parties, where nothing can be done. The one thing we know about Farage and his party is that he loves a referendum. It may well be that the next one is to abolish democracy in the UK.
