As I alluded to yesterday, for the first time ever as an adult, I am not really taking any great interest in the local elections. I was a member of the Labour party from 1979 - 2009 and then have been a member of the Lib Dems 2009-2011 and 2016- now. I've delivered leaflets, knocked on doors, attended rallys etc. I've always been fascinated. It was the reason I set up this blog, as I felt the Conservatives. were doing a rotten job. I found I enjoyed writing on other subjects and the blog has evolved away from those roots.
But now, here we are in the middle of an election campaign and I find myself in the strange position where I can find no enthusiasm at all to blog about what is going on. However, I do have some views on how things are likely to pan out. Since the last council elections, we've seen the rise of Reform. We can get some idea of how the cookie will crumble based on recent by elections. Lets start with the recent one in Hendon ward
30 October 2025 Hendon Ward by-election results
Candidate: BAILEY, Gabrielle Louise
Description: Green Party
Votes: 201
Candidate: DAVID, Yosef
Description: Reform UK
Votes: 1,069
Candidate: HARRISON, Lewis George
Description: Labour Party
Votes: 423
Candidate: REND, Ben
Description: Rejoin EU
Votes: 81
Candidate: RYDE, Shimon (Elected)
Description: Conservative Party Candidate
Votes: 1,656
Candidate: WALSH, Jeremy
Description: Liberal Democrats
Votes: 107
Shimon Ryde was duly elected as Councillor for the Hendon Ward of the London Borough of Barnet.
Lets compare that with the last council elections.
5 May 2022 Local Government Election results for Hendon
Candidate: Joshua Aaron CONWAY (Elected)
Party: Conservative
Votes: 2632
Candidate: Charlotte Elizabeth DAUS
Party: Labour
Votes: 1427
Candidate: David Jonathan DUNITZ
Party: Labour
Votes: 1329
Candidate: Christopher Jon FORDYCE
Party: Green
Votes: 429
Candidate: Michael James HUGHES
Party: Liberal Democrat
Votes: 277
Candidate: Franca Mina Anna OLIFFE
Party: Independent
Votes: 568
Candidate: Eunice PHILLIPS
Party: Liberal Democrat
Votes: 240
Candidate: Alex PRAGER (Elected)
Party: Conservative
Votes: 2545
Candidate: Mark Richard SHOOTER (Elected)
Party: Conservative
Votes: 2436
Candidate: Janice TURNER
Party: Liberal Democrat
Votes: 276
Candidate: Viljo George Rafiq WILDING
Party: Labour
Votes: 1018
A couple of points to note. The first is that bye-elections generally have a lower turnout than normal council elections. The Tories held the seat quite easily. I expect the Tories to hold all of their seats and make gains from Labour.
The same pattern was seen in Burnt Oak, which is a Labour heartland
13 February 2025 Burnt Oak Ward by-election results
Candidate: AKBIYIK, Altan Richard
Description: Liberal Democrats
Votes: 93
Candidate: BAILEY, Gabrielle Louise
Description: Green Party candidate
Votes: 202
Candidate: DAUS, Charlotte Elizabeth
Description: Labour Party
Votes: 1,064
Candidate: GHATEH, Kevin Kishar
Description: Conservative Party Candidate
Votes: 501
Candidate: HONDERICK, Charles Laurence
Description: Rejoin EU London
Votes: 68
Candidate: KHATRI, Sury
Description: Reform UK
Votes: 434
Charlotte Elizabeth Daus was duly elected as Councillor for the Burnt Oak Ward of the London Borough of Barnet.
If we now look at the 2022 elections, we see this
5 May 2022 Local Government Election results for Burnt Oak
Candidate: Sara Tracey CONWAY (Elected)
Party: Labour
Votes: 2545
Candidate: Kamal Bahadur GURUNG (Elected)
Party: Labour
Votes: 2377
Candidate: Ruth Carline Alexandra HART
Party: Conservative
Votes: 962
Candidate: Timothy James Matthew Weng Ho McGEEVER
Party: Conservative
Votes: 861
Candidate: Ammar NAQVI (Elected)
Party: Labour
Votes: 2105
Candidate: Rashina SHAH
Party: Green
Votes: 520
Candidate: Samuel SHUPAC
Party: Conservative
Votes: 736
I wasn't surprised that Labour won easily. Their voters are pretty tribal, but I was perhaps more surprised to see The Tories beating reform. It demonstrated the fact that although Reform have a hardcore support, it is nowhere near enough to win seats in Barnet. If I was going to put money on anyone to win, I expect the Tories to take back control. As Labour has not shone locally or nationally and I expect that to be reflected at the polls. Although the Tories are not exactly setting the world laight nationally, I expect a disciplined and sensible campaign focussing on local issues and trust.
Reform locally has a few estranged ex Tories on their cards. In Mill Hill, we have Sury Khatri on the slate. I like Sury personally, but he was a Tory until they booted him out and since then he's lent support to just about everyone. I am not sure that such candidates ever really have much credibility. He supported the Lib Dems in Mill Hill in 2022. I can't really see how that can be squared off with joining Reform. I suspect that he thinks they will win. I think that outside of London, Reform will perhaps do better, although I will be very surprised if they make they gains they think they will. The Tories and Labour have decades worth of polling data and experience in fight seats. It is all very well thinking that you'll win because people don't like Starmer or Badenoch, but Reform don't have a good story to tell in local government, so I think the big parties will play on the fact that inept and inexperienced councillors mean bigger bills will be rather potent.
I've spoken to a few Reform supporters of late. I have been quite shocked at how detached from reality some are. It takes a lot of hard work to win elections and you need to know the lie of the land and who you need to engage with to get them out. A few leaflets and bold claims is not enough to win. Of course, sometimes things happening nationally have a huge effect locally, but Reform is polling lower than last year and they couldn't win bye elections last year.
I am not involved in what the Lib Dems are doing, so I don't know what they are targetting. Likewise I am not close to the Greens. Generally in Barnet, the Greens mistakenly think that if the Lib Dems are doing well, they will. This is a myth. They would be better targetting wards where voters may have issues that the Greens have strong policies on. I think that the Lib Dems may win a ward or two if they run strong campaings, as may the Greens. In Mill Hill, we have a couple of independents running. I think that they have massively underestimated the task at hand to winkle out the Tories. I wouldn't be surprised to see a shock or two, if there are local issues that people are hot under the collar about, but I will be very surprised if Barnet doesn't flip back to the Tories.
I say that with no glee. They were useless between 2002 and 2022. I think Labour had a chance to do good things and they've blown it.
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