Labour wins a landslide and the Borough of Barnet turns red!

 Before I wrote this blog, I re-read the blog I wrote after Boris Johnson won a hefty majority in 2019. How things have changed. At the time, it seemed like Labour was damaged beyond repair. It seemed like the Tories would be in power for another decade. Boris Johnson's popularity was at it's height and locally it seemed to me that Labour was finished. The anti semitism in the Labour party had seemingly done for Labour locally. The election had been rather toxic locally and the Hendon Labour candidate David Pinto-Duschinsky had been given a proper duffing up by voters at the ballot box and  a very hard time at the local hustings. In Finchley, the Lib Dems parachuted in Luciana Berger and would have won had Labour not run a hard kamikaze campaign. In Chipping Barnet, Theresa Villiers got a nasty scare and the Lib Dems returned the favour for Finchley, keeping the Tories in. I despaired.

Since then, things have changed beyond all recognition. Boris gave way to Truss, who was outlasted by the lettuce. Rishi Sunak came in and gave us all an object lesson why being clever does not necessarily mean you have any common sense. I wanted to say some nice things about Sunak's time as Prime Minister, out of fairness and balance, but I genuinely cannot think of anything positive that he's done in that time. Imagine spending your life building a political career, reaching the pinnacle and then achieving nothing apart from the virtual destruction of your party. At a stretch, you could say that he's undone some of the economic damage that Liz Truss inflicted on the UK. The UK isn't seen as quite the basket case it was when he took over. Should we congratulate him for undoing the chaos his own party inflicted on us?

Anyway, enough of the past. Lets have a look at last night. On Tuesday, I gave my predictions for the local seats.

My prediction is as follows

Hendon - Labour by 5,000 votes

Finchley - Labour by 3,000 votes

Chipping Barnet by 2,500 votes. 

So how did I do? Lets start with Hendon. I got the result right but the margin rather wrong. 

The turnout was 55.4%

Here are the results in order of the candidate's surnames.

• BAILEY, Gabrielle Louise     Green Party     Votes: 2,667
• ENDERBY, Clareine     Liberal Democrats     Votes: 1,966
• GIBSON, Jane     Social Democratic Party     Votes: 139
• JOGIA, Ameet     Conservatives     Votes: 15,840
• PALEKAR, Imtiaz     Workers Party     Votes: 1,518
• PEARL, Joshua Leon     Reform UK     Votes: 3,038
• PINTO-DUSCHINSKY, David (ELECTED)     Labour Party     Votes: 15,855
• REND, Ben     Rejoin EU     Votes: 233

Labour's David Pinto-Duschinsky won by a mere 15 votes after three recounts. I am amazed by this result. Just about no one I know who previously voted Conservative was doing so this time. Last time out Matthew Offord won by 4,000 votes. 

OFFORD, MatthewCon        26,878    48.8%

PINTO-DUSCHINSKY, David    Lab    22,648    41.1%

ENDERBY, Clareine    LD    4,628    8.4%

VINCENT-KIRBY, Portia    Green    921    1.7% 

Turnout 66%

The first thing to note is an 11% drop in turnout. The Tories have shed 11,000 votes since 2019, which is massive. It appears that 3,000 of those went to Reform, and 8,000 simply stayed at home. As for Labour, David Pinto-Duschinsky has shed 7,000 votes. It seems that all of them simply stayed at home. As you will see from my predictions, I did not anticipate this. I assumed that he would get around 22,000 votes and Jogia would get 17,000 when I was doing my sums. I can understand why local Tories would be so fed up, I thought there would be more excitement for Labour given the prospect of winning. I have to surmise that the tory strategy of talking up the risks of a supermajority, to some extent, worked.

In our political system, if you win by one vote, you win. As he goes home for a bit of rest, Pinto-Duschinsky will not really care too much about the margin. He has the gig for five years and he has time to make a name for himself. Ameet Jogia, the Conservative may feel he 'did well' coming so close. I think this would be a huge mistake if the Tories think that. He's shed over 11,000 votes. I thought his campaign was awful. I have no doubt that, on these numbers, Matthew Offord would have won, had he not legged it. He had a very strong personal vote, mostly amongst our most conservative religious groups. I would have expected Offord to have got 2-3,000 more votes than Jogia, just through alliances he's built up over the years. Jogia's campaign strategy was appalling. Making a campaign against McDonlads in Mill Hill was plain idiotic. If he'd highlighted Labours plans to allow green belt development as a central plank, I have no doubt, he'd have got more than the 16 extra votes he needed to win. It is clear that Hendon is a very Conservative leaning seat and that Jogia threw it away, rather than doing well to keep it so tight.  I spoke to one of my friends from Mill Hill Synagogue yesterday. I asked how the hustings there went. He said "They hated all of them". When the local Tories do their post mortem, I'd suggest that they see this as a missed open goal, rather than a great performance.

As to the other parties. Reform clearly nicked enough votes to let Labour in. I am not exactly sure that their supporters will be too chuffed, although it must be said that the Green/Lib Dem vote is bigger than Reform, so both sides could claim that they've suffered from this effect. 

The Turnout was 63%

• DEANE, Alex     Conservatives     Votes: 17,276
• DONNELLY, Brendan Patrick     Rejoin EU     Votes: 486
• HOYLE, Sarah     Liberal Democrats     Votes: 3,375
• MURPHY, Katharine Margaret     Party Of Women     Votes: 318
• PARSONS, Steve     Green Party     Votes: 3,107
• PEZZULLI, Bepi     Reform UK     Votes: 2,598
• SACKMAN, Sarah (ELECTED)     Labour Party     Votes: 21,857
• SHAD, Michael     Independent     Votes: 272

Sarah Sackman comfortably beat my prediction of 3,000, winning by 4,500. More heartening for Sarah was that even if every Reform voter went back to the Tories, she'd still have won. It was great to see both the Lib Dems and Greens beating Reform. I consider Sarah to be a friend and am delighted. I suspect that she'll get a top job at some point in this parliament. In truth, this seat went exactly as I expected it to.

As you can see from the results last time, Freer got in due to a split vote. The Lib Dem vote was boosted by anti Corbyn candidate Luciana Berger. This factor disappeared this time. I must note a classy tTwitter post in Finchley from Alex Deane, the Tory. this is how you do it ( I note no such tweet in Hendon or Barnet) - Well done Alex

Not the result we’d hoped for but I’m proud to have been the candidate for @Finchleytories. Thanks to everyone who helped the campaign.

Many congratulations to @sarahsackman who will be a great MP for a great part of our city.

— Alex Deane (@ajcdeane) July 5, 2024

 Here are the results from last time

*Mike Freer (C) 24,162 (43.84%, -3.11%)

Luciana Berger (LD) 17,600 (31.94%, +25.33%)

Ross Houston (Lab) 13,347 (24.22%, -19.58%)

The Tories shed around 7,000 votes. This was very much in line with my expectations. I have to say that I am more than happy to see the back of Mike Freer. My personal experience of him was of a very unprincipled, thin skinned and dishonest character. His rather nasty comments about my family when my Mum died in 2008 in the Hendon Times were perhaps the most disgusting thing I've personally experienced (with the exception of his mate Brian Coleman taunting me about my prostate cancer). 

And finally we go to Chipping Barnet. 

Turnout was 65.5%

• DURRANT, Mark James     Liberal Democrats     Votes: 2,614
• FARBEY, David Samuel     Green Party     Votes: 3,442
• HADDOW, Hamish     Reform UK     Votes: 3,986
• HEWISON, Richard     Party: Rejoin EU     Votes: 379
• LAUER, Kay     Independent     Votes: 182
• TOMLINSON, Dan (ELECTED)     Labour Party     Votes: 21,585
• VILLIERS, Theresa Anne     Conservatives     Votes: 18,671

Of the three seats, this had the highest turnout and the biggest Tory vote. I expected this, given that Theresa Villiers was the incumbent and has a bit of a loyal following. My prediction was pretty close. the Reform vote technically could have saved Villiers, had they all voted Tory, but to be honest I suspect most of them were sick of the Tories and would probably have stayed at home. In my estimates, incumbency can give you 1,500-2,500 votes if you do a decent job. If an MP helps someone, they generally are well disposed towards them. Villiers has been active in protecting the green belt and associated with a few local campaigns. It wasn't enough to save her in the current circumstances, but I think she can draw some comfort in outperforming her fellow Barnet Tories.

A few things I note. Firstly, why was the turnout 10% higher in Chipping than in Hendon? I suspect this was actually down to the fact that there was a perception the Tories had a chance. It was in play. I suspect that many in Hendon assumed that the Tories would simply lose and couldn't be bothered to vote. If I was Labour, I'd take a long look at their strategy in Hendon, when the dust settles. My guess is that 15,840 people who voted Tory are the absolute hard core, who would vote for a Donkey if it had a blue rosette. David Pinto-Duschinsky should have polled 18-20,000 this time by my estimates. I do think that locally Labour make a mistake by concentrating on getting their hardcore vote  out, rather than reaching out to those who are there to be persuaded. This nearly cost them.

And finally a few words on the national results. As a Lib Dem, I am delighted with the party's performance. In terms of seats, the best in my lifetime. I am also rather chuffed to see some rather horrible Tories consigned to the dustbin. Top of the list, Jacob Rees-Mogg (who was my brothers MP). I was not surprised that Jeremy Hunt survived. He has often given the impression that he's the last sane and rational Tory left in Parliament. The Lib Dems ran a strong campaign, but it was always going to be harder to unseat someone on the left of the Tories. As I suspected, Reform performed atrociously in terms of seats. It was clear to me after their Nuremberg Rally style event on Sunday, that the party is very badly run as a political machine. No doubt Farage will claim he is the real victor, but he isn't. He's put together an organisation that gets millions of votes, but he is really the only recipient of the benefit. It will be interesting to see how he gets on with 30p Lee as they jostle for attention. Both men seem very vain and narcissistic to me. Is Reform big enough for both of them. I predict that by the end of this Parliament, one will be an Independent (or a Tory). 

And as for the Conservatives? A period of bloodletting will follow. The right will want them to move to the area occupied by Reform. The sensible ones will point out that it is the Lib Dems that did the damage and these voters will not return if the swivel eyed mob take over. 

And finally. Thank God it's all over. Not just the election, but the fourteen years of Tory misrule. I really don't think it will be easy for Sir Keir Starmer. He may well find that by the start of next year, he's got to deal with a Fascist government in France, Donald Trump in the USA and heaven only knows what else. We already have a Fascist in Italy. It could be that he's alone as a liberally minded leader in the G7. I don't envy him.

.

Focus on Chipping Barnet Conservatives

The London Borough of Barnet is divided up into three constituencies, Hendon, Finchley + Golders Green, Chipping Barnet. Whilst Hendon is in a state of meltdown following the various shenanigans of MP Matthew Offord and Finchley and Golders Green has become a focal point for protest coordinated by Occupy London as a result of the anti squatter stance of MP Mike Freer, Chipping is what it always has been. A sleepy backwater where nothing much happens.

So much so that the MP, Theresa Villiers was made Northern Ireland minister. Perhaps it is ironic that whilst Barnet is outsourcing its services to the rest of the country, Northern Ireland has outsourced its management to Chipping Barnet!

Of the three constituencies, Chipping is far and away the most middle class, the least diverse and the most Tory. Until 2010, it was the only Barnet constituency with a Tory MP. In 2012, the association made an attempt to make the represenation more diverse, by selecting a female Muslim candidate for the Chipping ward council by election. This was a disaster. The plan failed miserably, with Labour romping away with a previously safe seat.

The local association is now controlled by the chair Fiona Bulmar. Ms Bulmar was a member of the Council cabinet until 2009. She stood for leadership and lost narrowly to Lynne Hillan. In a fit of pique, she walked out of the cabinet and stood down as a councillor. She subsequently made up with Ms Hillan and took up the reigns of running the association.

Like many such clubs, the association has been torn apart by many such rifts and squabbles over the years. Resting anti Council blogger, David Miller was the association chairman for a while. He quit in disgust at the endless shenanigans. Another anti council blogger was an ex Barnet Councillor. Daniel Hope was actually a Chipping ward councillor, until he fell out with fellow Councillor Andreas Tambourides. As a result of the rift, Mr Hope was deselected from the ward. He started writing occasional blogs under the name "The Barnet Bugle". Reports reach the Barnet Eye that Mr Hope has been seeking to rejoin the association as he has decided that gatecrashing lefty love ins after council meetings is not for him. Rather amusingly we hear that Conservative leader Richard Cornelius is less than thrilled at the concept. Having, rather fortuitously, been given the opportunity to get rid of another rather problematic member in Brian Coleman, word reaches the Barnet Eye that Richard is not exactly chuffed at the prospect of having the challenge of the rather easily upset Mr Hope in his ranks. The Barnet Eye wonders if Mr Cornelius is ever secretly jealous of Joseph Stalin, who had a very effective way of dealing with such problems. All Mr Cornelius can do is ask such members to sit on the "general functions committee".

Like many such sleepy backwaters, nothing much happens. A quick look at the association news reaffirms this. It appears that so far this year, nothing at all has happened!
http://www.barnetconservatives.co.uk/news

The association has a whole stack of rather elegant social events lined up. Here are a few examples

Coppetts Brunch Come and join us for some Bucks Fizz and brunch. 32 The Ridgeway, N11 3LJ

CWCC Theresa's Birthday Party 46 Kings Rd EN5 4EG. £15. Time: 7pm. 

Old Fold Branch Easter Tea 163 High Street. £12.50/head Time: 3.30pm

CWCC Coronation Dinner (60 years celebration) 163 High Street. £17.50/head  Time: 7pm

If this floats your boat, then check here for more details.

http://www.barnetconservatives.co.uk/events

I suspect that Chipping would be the last place with a London postcode to still elect a Tory MP in the event of a total collapse of the party. That is unless it goes UKIP !

Matthew Offord shafted in Boundary Commision carve up of Hendon

It looks like Matthew Offord has been shafted in the Boundary commission carve up of Barnet. The three existing constituencies are being consolidated into two smaller ones. Here are the details.

As you can see, Hendon has been carved up.It looks as if this could have some rather interesting effects on the relations between our three MP's. My understanding is that usually the one with the biggest chunk of the cionstituency gets to keep it. Assuming that the Lib Dem vote doesn't collapse, Chipping Barnet looks to me as if it may become a three way marginal - very interesting.  Edgware looks like it is going to be safe Labour. Finchley & Hendon - Tory / Lab (although the Lib Dem stronghold may add some spice in Childs Hill), Southgate & East Barnet looks like a Tory/Lab fight. 


Theresa Villiers may have an interesting time as a nearly half the ward don't know her. She won't be nearly as comfy, especially if the electorate have tired of the Tories. Freer keeps 75% of his old stomping ground and he's dumped the Labour stronghold of Woodhouse. Gaining a Tory Stronghold in Hendon and the Lab held ward of West Hendon.


Oh well Matthew, good luck in your new job !

David Miller : Chipping Barnets very own John The Baptist !

Barnet Bloggers Bank Holiday Special.

David Miller, who writes the "Not the Barnet Times" blog, has been following a very simple agenda since he started his blog last July. It is quite simple. People in public office, be it Councillors or Officials should do their job professionally and with honour. He believes that collection of
taxes should be kept to a minimum, funding what is necessary, not extravagent lifestyles for those in the pay of taxpayers. His criticism of local officials and councillors has upset those in office. Talk has reached the Barnet Eye that certain highly placed people in the Chipping Barnet Conservatives have called for his head (well actually his ejection from the Party) following his strident criticism of the Queen of the Court at Barnet, Lynn Hillan.

The story is like a modern day reworking of the tale of John the Baptist. What did John say about Taxes? "collect no more than you are required to" (Lk. 3.13) Strangely enough this message didn't go down too well with the ruling elite. His criticism of the shenanigans at the court of King Herod lead to his imprisonment. Herodias, Herods wife bore a grudge against John for criticising her. She conspired with her daughter, Salome, and persuaded the King to behead John. How did John describe himself? Was he a prophet or a messiah? No he said he was "a voice in the wilderness".

Did it do them any good? Well if you believe the accounts, the population ascribed the defeat of Herods army in 36 AD to the wrath of God for killing John The Baptist. Now although I'm a good Catholic boy and I'm sure God was none to pleased with Herod, I'd suggest that there might be a more straightforward explanation. You see I think Herod had got so lazy, out of touch and complacent, as witnessed by the accounts of his court, that he let his army get to a state that they were not up to the job. Had Herod listened to John and cut taxes, made his soldiers behave professionally and cleaned up his court, he would still have had a lifestyle far better than his subjects. He would also have been seen as a popular and fair leader. Maybe his army would have done a little bit better.

Which brings us back to Chipping Barnet & David Miller. Whatever anyone may think of David, there is no doubt that he is a Conservative. There is no doubt that his views are in tune with the majority of grassroots activists. There is no doubt that his family is well respected within the wider party. There is also no doubt whatsoever that if the Barnet Tories listened to him, they would be far more popular and not just with ardent Tories. If the policies he advocates were implimented, this blog would have nothing to say most of the time, as the obvious cock ups would disappear. As to the Tory army - the activists who go out canvassing, delivering leaflets etc? Will Davids treatement inspire them? I don't think so.

David may not live in the desert on locusts, he's probably not lead the chaste lifestyle of John, I doubt that too many churches will be named after him, but when it comes to the Barnet Tories & common sense, he certainly is a voice in the wilderness ! One they'd be well advised to take heed of.