So Russia has recalled its ambassador to the UK. The UK has sold Ukraine blueprints for super duper missiles. The head of the CIA has made an 'unannounced visit' to Moscow to discuss what no one seems to know, but a lot of people are speculating. Russia is reportedly performing 'mobilisation exercises'. Both the USA and Russia have received bloody noses in their military adventures. I don't think anyone, least of all Vladimir Putin had any idea that his Ukraine adventure would go so badly. I cannot possibly believe he ever envisaged drones raining down on Moscow and petrol shortages. As for Trump, his adventure in Iran has demonstrated the limits of US power.
If you look at Twitter, you might be convinced to go out and start hording water and tins of sardines. I am not sure that if you've embarked on a failed military adventure that is stretching your economy to breaking point, opening a new front is that wise. I am also not sure that if I wanted to stop Vladimir Putin from launching new military adventures, I'd send the head of the CIA on a secret mission. But then again, I understand little of what Donald Trump does. I am not sure he understands either.
As for Putin, it strikes me that he is in a trap of his own making. Whilst Trump is completely unpredictable, I don't believe that Putin is. I believe he is sane and rational. I also believe that he knows he is in an ever more difficult position. He seems to have his hands firmly on the levers of power. However things change quickly when such people lose their aura of invincibility. There is a simplistic view that he could walk in to the Baltic Republics and annexe them and Trump would not commit the US or NATO. That is a massive gamble. Whilst Putin might see such a gambit as his last chance, will his generals really want to risk seeing their families annihilated in a nuclear holocaust if it all goes wrong?
As a military strategy, opening second fronts when you are not winning your first front has always been a mistake. But we are dealing with people who are, for different reasons very unpredictable. Trump needs a way out of Iran, so creating a massive distraction elsewhere may seem to him to be a brilliant idea. Putin is playing a different game, as best I can see. His one Ace is that Russia is still a country with a huge nuclear arsenal. This makes any sort of major military clash deeply undesirable for both parties. However, if you play international relations with the mindset of a poker player, it is a great card.
The problem Russia has is that after four years, it is bogged down in Ukraine and if it had the resources to achieve its tasks it would have already. It has options, none of which are great. They could sure for peace, but Putin would be finished. They could throw even more resources at the problem, which there is no guarantee would work. They can start soe sort of distraction to take everyones eyes of Ukraine, but this would drain resources even more. Putin is becomi ng ever more reliant on his main allies, China, North Korea and Iran. The most powerful of these is China and a massive escalation is not the way the Chinese do business. The practical difference North Korea and Iran can offer is very limited.
China works on strategies that evolve over decades. Their way is small incremental gains over many years. They move so slowly that no one notices what they are doing until they've done it. Do they really want to risk it all for a dodgy neighbour? They do however see the USA as the main threat to their long term plans and I believe that China see opportunities in Trump to further their long term agenda. The USA under Trump has shown its allies that it is not reliable. This can only be good for Chinese foreign policy and influence. The more discord they can sow between Trump and the US allies, the greater the long term gains for Chinese foreign policy. They don't really have to do very much to win this little game.
But China also know that this is a dangerous game. They can get things wrong as well. I don't believe the situation is anywhere near as dangerous as the hysterical tweeters seem to think. I think it is all very unsettling and worrying, but my view is that there is a big game of bluff going on. Trump wants some sort of victory. Putin wants some sort of face saving solution that can justify his appalling strategy. The Chinese want everyone else to be weaker and their position to be stronger, without doing very much.
From what I know of people who do jobs like being head of the CIA, they talk to their opponents to sort out solutions, not to make threats. Threats are the business of politicians. Starting wars is the job of the military.The CIA's job is to know what is going on. I suspect that his opposite number at The FSB in Moscow is a sane, rational pragmatist. The primary role of both is to know what the other is thinking. At times of great stress, having a face to face chat is probably a very sensible thiong to do. But if I am wrong, if it all goes wrong and these lunatics blow the world up, thanks it's been fun.
