| Name of candidate | Description (if any) | Number of votes recorded |
| ABELES Aliza Miriam | Liberal Democrat | 446 |
| ABELES Elias Pinkas | Liberal Democrat | 410 |
| GORDON Brian Colin | Conservative Party Candidate | 2732 (elected) |
| HALE Raymond | Labour Party Candidate | 1140 |
| HART Helena Diane | Conservative Party Candidate | 2369 (elected) |
| JOHNSON Geoffrey | Labour Party Candidate | 1155 |
| JOHNSON Julie | Labour Party Candidate | 1180 |
| MARGOLIS Catherine Alexandra | Green Party | 474 |
| OLLIER Alexander Timothy Matthew | Liberal Democrat | 169 |
| SCANNELL Joan | Conservative Party Candidate | 2182 (elected) |
As you can see, Brian Gordon, polled nearly 600 more votes than Joan Scannell, the lowest scoring Conservative. You may think "Maybe Mr Gordon has been a long serving councillor in Edgware and has worked his socks off, making lots of friends). This however is not the case. Mr Gordon was a Councillor in Hale previously and scuttled off to Edgware when he heard that Hale was likely to fall. I know Joan Scannell quite well as she's on the Mill Hill Music Festival committee and she's been part of the Tory furniture for years. I suppose it is conceivable that the two Green Candidates split votes with the Tories, but generally Tories don't ever vote green. Could it be that the Edgware Tory Party is a hotbed of sexism and they just don't like female candidates. To be honest, I haven't got a clue why there was such a huge difference in number of votes. It is true that candidates with alphabetically friendly to the ballot form names do better, but I've never seen such a large difference.
Another interesting ward is Mr Gordons old ward in Hale. This split (as it has done in the past).
| Name of candidate | Description (if any) | Number of votes recorded |
| CEASAR Nicolas James Alexander | Green Party | 536 |
| CREIGHTON James Malcolm | Liberal Democrat | 297 |
| DAVEY Tom | Conservative Party Candidate | 2178 (elected) |
| GOODMAN Michael Ronald | Liberal Democrat | 335 |
| JACOBS Geoffrey Alan | Liberal Democrat | 243 |
| JEANMAIRE Pierre | Labour Party Candidate | 1994 |
| LYONS Kitty | Labour Party Candidate | 2019 (elected) |
| LYONS Roger | Labour Party Candidate | 1870 |
| RAYNER Hugh Robert | Conservative Party Candidate | 2155 (elected) |
| SIMBERG Elliot Keith | Conservative Party Candidate | 2010 |
Interestingly with the Labour vote, that seemed to favour the female candidate. Kitty Lyons was elected whilst her spouse Roger trailed by 150 votes. I think we can safely say that the Labour Party was shafted by the Greens in Hale. The 536 Green votes may well have pushed the other two Labour Candidates past the post. Again the losing Tory was alphateically challenged. He was also not a standing councillor. It doesn't seem unreasonable to assume that both Hugh Rayner and Tom Davey have helped at least a couple of hundred people in the ward over the years, so have a bit of a personal vote. I suppose it is worth considering that as Brian Gordon seemed such a popular chap, he'd probably have topped the Tory Poll in Hale. Had they not won two seats from the Lib Dems in Childs Hill, his chicken run to Edgware may have cost the Tories the council.
Finally we look at Mill Hill ward. This had a full slate of parties and is quite interesting in a number of ways
| Name of candidate | Description (if any) | Number of votes recorded |
| CLAYTON Rolf | Independent | 371 |
| DAVIES Jeremy Edwin | Liberal Democrat | 721 |
| DUSCHINSKY Val | Conservative Party Candidate | 1936 (elected) |
| FRANCOME Colin | Labour Party Candidate | 1229 |
| HANDLEY Deborah June | Labour Party Candidate | 1264 |
| HART John Robert | Conservative Party Candidate | 2058 (elected) |
| HILL Alasdair | Liberal Democrat | 512 |
| ILOTT Luke Alexander | Green Party | 282 |
| JOHN Sian Bassett | Labour Party Candidate | 1231 |
| JONES George Alfred | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 731 |
| KHATRI Sury | Conservative Party Candidate | 1864 (elected) |
| LEES Michael John | Liberal Democrat | 470 |
| RUSTIN Barbara | Green Party | 495 |
| WILLIAMS David Gustave | Green Party | 228 |
Between 1994 and 2006 this was a Lib Dem ward. In 2006, John Hart got in for the Tories leaving two Lib Dems. In 2010, it went true blue. This time we had the three main parties + three Greens, UKIP and an independent. From being top of the pile, Jeremy Davies for the Lib Dems fell to eighth behind George Jones of UKIP. George is a well known character and lead protests against Etz Chaim Free School, collecting thousands of signatures. The other two Lib Dems faired even worse, without a personal vote. Unsurprisingly John Hart, who has been a Mill Hill Councillor for years topped the poll. I find it slightly depressing that hard working Sury Khatri, who clearly deserved to get reelected came third out of the Tories. I guess this is mostly down to being alphabetically challenged. I'd hate to think that there was any degree of racism in the voting pattern (and to be fair 200 votes is around the usual last on the balance difference). The sad thing for me is that if you add up what I call the progressive candidates and take the most successful from Greens, Lib Dems and Labour
| HANDLEY Deborah June | Labour Party Candidate | 1264 |
| DAVIES Jeremy Edwin | Liberal Democrat | 721 |
| RUSTIN Barbara | Green Party | 495 |
You get a total of 2480 votes. My guess is that all of these people would rather have seen any of the above elected than John Hart. The sad truth is that until those people on the progressive side of politics get their act together and stop showboating and pretending such losses are victories, we are doomed to a Tory Council.
Adam Langleben, who I get on well with, and who is now a Barnet Labour councillor posted this tweet, which just sums up the head in the sand attitude of Labour locally
Adam Langleben
We also now replace the Lib Dems as official opposition in Mill Hill. We gave the Tories a real scare there.
The truth is that if the Labour Party could have reached an accomodation as they have done in the past with the Lib Dems and the Greens had not further split the vote, we may well have seen the end of the Barnet Tory administration. As far as I am concerned, Labour has nothing at all to boast about and the sooner they wake up to this fact the better. We can all play silly games and brag about how we are now the most successful losers in particular wards, but in my book any loser is a loser.
I know the Lib Dems are nationally seen as a toxic brand by Labour. That will not stop the two parties jumping into bed after the next election if it suits them. It just depresses me that the numpties around here are in denial of this fact.
7 comments:
I was at the count on Friday and noted there was a huge amount of spilt voting in Mill Hill, with some very unusual patterns in the split. Some votes were split between the Lib Dems and UKIP, others were split between the Conservatives and Labour, and others were for just one candidate only, notably John Hart and George Jones.
For psephology obsessives, is all the data about split voting released by returning officers, or is that information always lost?
Firstly congratulations to Sury, Val and Jon for their win in Mill Hill and a thankyou to all candidates of all rosettes for a healthy debate and campaign in these elections. It was very interesting to see how many votes were split; with so much split voting it could be argued that we all failed to really convince Mill Hill residents that we were the best for them.
Naturally I'm gutted I didn't poll better however it was great to meet many residents and listen to people's concerns and I hope to be given an opportunity to represent Mill Hill in the future. I felt that the Lib Dems offered a genuine alternative with well funded ideas for improving services and stood up to tax cut gimmicks and onebarnet unlike Labour. Yet we cannot fight against a national decline easily.
Labour can target where they want and fight as they want; its not for me to say they cant. However their blind determination to wipe out lib dems in Child's Hill scuppered their true goal of winning the council. Labour members expressed their wish for CH to stay LD when I bumped into them campaigning in Child's Hill.
Mill Hill is a great, green place with residents proud of their community; this blog is a testament to that. However there will be challenges ahead in the future as we find it increasingly difficult to school our teenagers and our green spaces have increasing pressure to be converted into luxury flats for the few. I hope to meet you all in campaigning for a continued fair and buoyant community in Mill Hill.
Try changing your name to Arseborne, and you'll be top of the list alphabetically, and you might get along better with him of whom we do not speak :)
(Then run for the council?)
Well it clear that either the split vote or the outspoken Sury cost him some votes. i suspect the latter. He was often told to shut up for questioning proposals. Go independant Sury after the General Election and lets have real council debate instead of the whip.
Well it is clear that either the split vote or the outspoken Sury cost him some votes. i suspect the latter. He was often told to shut up for questioning proposals. Go independant Sury, after the General Election and lets have real council debate instead of the whip.
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