Thursday 15 November 2018

Brexit - The worst possible deal?

Why? That is the only question I can ask. Why on earth has Theresa May decided to put this 'Deal' in front of Parliament? The one thing Parliament is meant to do before everything is to protect the independence of the British people. The deal Theresa May is proposing a deal where we are bound by laws we have no say at all in making. I am a remainer, but May has managed to pull together a deal that is highly objectionable to both sides. The only party that have won are big business, who maintain a free trade zone. This deal will lead to decades of wrangling, resentment and continual fallouts. The right wing press will not stop their 'crusade' against the EU. The Brexiteers have been given a free pass. Every failure will remain the fault of the EU and loss of sovereignty, none of it will be their fault. As for the remainers, they have to sit back as the UK simply becomes a fare paying passenger on the EU bus.

There will be no Brexit dividend. The thirty nine billion divorce bill will see to that. There will be no reclaiming of sovereignty, as we will still be governed by the EU and the ECJ. I predict that this will quickly unravel as the Tory party gives in to inevitable splits that have been simmering for the last 40 years. I can't see any sane Tory backing a new election. I can't see May backing a new referendum. I can't see Parliament passing this deal. I can't see any Tory capable of putting Humpty Dumpty together again and fixing the divide. Given that Theresa May is not a complete idiot, one has to assume she has some sort of plan to make this work. Either that or it's the cyanide pill she wanted to end her troubled tenure with a shout of "I did my best". When you hear that the bloke (Dominic Raab) who negotiated it resigns saying its a bad deal, what are we meant to think.

Who could have possibly though in 2015, when David Cameron won the general election with a clear majority that we'd find oursleves here, three years later? Whatever you may have thought of the coalition, we have gone from a genuinely stable period of government, where Great Britian was viewed as a country taking hard choices to get its act together, to being a complete basket case.

The markets don't lie. The chart of the Pound vs the Euro deemonstrates what the world thinks of the way the economy has been managed for the last five years. I just feel sorry for my children who will have to live with the decisions for decades.

My own personal view is that if Theresa May was a proper leader, she'd withdraw our request to leave the EU, set up a full Royal Commission to work out how the UK should manage its relationship with Europe and then start again when we actually have a sane and rational plan. Once that has been agreed, it should be ratified by the British people. May should have set up a Royal commission in the first place before triggering article 50. There was absolutely no need to rush such an important change. I personally don't believe that we could have negotiated a better deal than to remain. I do however think a properly constituted Royal Commission would have given #Brexiteers to properly test their ideas and schemes.

Whilst chatting with a local on my morning walk, I was asked whether I thought the deal had anything to commend it. It appears to me that it avoids the chaos of us crashing out of the EU and the massive damage that would cause the economy, but in the long term this deal will be like an albatross around the neck of UK PLC. Every kicking the EU wants to give the UK will simply be passively accepted. The new world markets that Brexiteers boasted about cannot legally materalise and we will be in a state of perpetual poliical turmoil. As the economy of the EU and the UK will to some degree be sheilded from the worst effects by ongoing trade agreements, this will not damage the EU but will serve as a cautionary tale to any other country that choses to leave.

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