It may sound like an odd thing to say, but I believe this Monday will be the most important day of the career of Boris Johnson's tenure at No 10 Downing Street. It is the day we find whether Dominic Cummings is a Political genius or just a rather unfortunate charlatan, who Boris Johnson was stupid enough to get himself involved with.
You may find this an odd statement, but I believe that Boris's future at no 10 depends on what happens at the local elections Next Thursday, May 5th. A truly awful set of results and the already jittery Tory MP's will know that his time has run out with voters. They expect the results to be bad, but if they point to a wipe out at the next election, which must be held in the next couple of years, they know that they need to ditch him to allow a new leader to detoxify the party.
So why is Monday so important. I've always believed that Dominic Cummings loyalty was with Michael Gove, not Boris Johnson. It was Gove who persuaded Johnson to take on Cummings. Gove is a crafty sod. He's not put his name in the hat as a potential leader, but you wait for Boris to go. He'll soon be up there and making the running. Cummings is his go to strategy man. If Boris recovers, Gove may well find that his chance has passed to the next generation of Tory hopefuls. I've thought all along that the Cummings revealations were far more about Gove's plotting than anything else. Cummings clearly doesn't believe that Boris is the last job he'd have in British Politics, but what right minded person would employ him after he's shafted his old boss so comprehensively? The only answer can be someone who was in on the plan, someone who wants to be leader themselves.
When voters cast their votes, they have a lot of reasons to give Boris the cold shoulder, but a final massive dead cat from Cummings at the start of election week will seal the deal. He's the man who started the whole Partygate saga, despite his own ill advised trip to Barnard Castle in lockdown.
There are only two possible views of Cummings. One is that he's a charlatan and a busted flush, who has simply thrown mud at Boris in a fit of pique, because he was booted out when Boris realised he was poison, sadly for Boris, long after the poison was supped.
Then there is the other option. It's all been a well worked out plan, to gradually destroy the credibility of Boris, in the run up to the local elections, with the coup de grace being delivered in election week. The ties and mutual admiration between Cummings and Gove are well documented and Gove has never made any secret of the fact he thinks he'd be a better PM than Boris, as recent press speculation has revealed.
So how will we know? If on Monday we get the Boris bombshell that I fully expect, we can be pretty sure that a long standing plan is reaching it's climax. By Thursday, voters will be marching to the polls boiling with anger. Of course, if I'm wrong about all of this, and I probably am, Cummings will not be on the news channels, Gove will be pounding the streets hard to support Tory candidates in the local elections and saving Boris and the voters will simply be extremely pissed off with Boris, as opposed to boiling with rage.
I ran my theory by a well placed source that I have, who has been spot on about a number of things No 10 has done regarding strategy. Their response? "Whilst I'm sure that what your saying is not necessarily the last thing Boris is worrying about heading into the locals, the last thing he needs is another dead cat, but I'd say he has other things that may be concerning him more". Make of that what you will. They also said that they thought the odds on Michael Gove at 33/1 were a pretty good price right now if you were going to have a punt on anyone.
Of course, all of this is a purely personal opinion.
