Six reasons why Boris will come to bitterly regret proroguing Parliament

It hasn't taken us long for Boris Johnson to reveal what sort of Prime Minister he will be. I have spent a very long time watching him. I started writing a blog as a direct result of his campaign for the job of London Mayor in 2008. I was very active on the comments section of the Barnet Times. In those far off, heady days, he started as a bit of a buggins turn joke candidate. The Tories had virtually given up on beat Ken Livingstone and saw it as a good way for David Cameron to park him out of the way for a while. It seemed that no one seriously gave Boris a chance, except for Boris and me. I realised something that seems to have passed most political commentators by. Boris had a high media profile and the recognition made him dangerous. Ken Livingstone fought a normal Labour Campaign. Boris ran as a maverick. He smashed the vote, as much to the amazement of the Tory high command as everyone else. I joked the day after that I'd have a tenner on him becoming the Prime Minister. Boris confounded all expectations and didn't become a complete failure, despite many ridiculously stupid mistakes and gaffs. He is one of the few Politicians who is seemingly coated in Teflon. But whilst being a Teflon coated maverick has served him well thus far, yesterday he played a hand that I believe will spell the end of him. There are five reasons. 

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1. The British Public do not like liars. Look at Tony Blair. His period of PM was by far the most economically successful of any post war PM. The economy thrived and the country proudly stood up as one of the leading nations in the world. But Blair lied to Parliament and when that sunk in, his reputation was finished. When Boris and his cronies announced yesterday that the suspension of Parliament was nothing to do with Brexit, everyone in the country knew that he was lying. It was the sole reason. Whilst many Brexiteers yesterday marvelled at what they saw as a masterstroke to deliver their dreams, I believe that as they are decent people, when the intoxication wears off, they will see that we are lead by a man who cannot tell the truth. If he'd come out and said "The People voted for Brexit, this is the only way I can deliver it" then their celebrations would be justified. What he has in fact said is that "I'm going to lie my way through this process". Personally I would have thought that rather than suspending party conferences, with the Brexit Deadlin looming, the Parties should have cancelled them and worked night and day in Parliament to sort the mess out. But however you look at it, Boris has told the British people a whopper and when the dust settles, no one will trust him.

2. Boris has shown just how weak his position is. Boris is a leader who has not won an election and who leads a party that has no majority in Parliament. He needed to build bridges with Parliament to see through his plans. If he had faith in his position, he'd not have needed to take such a desperate gamble. The EU are not fools. They realise that he has alienated Parliament. He had few cards to play and hehas even fewer now. His action has forced all decent Conservative MP's to think very carefully whether they wish to be part of something that undermines the sovereignty of Parliament. He has given sceptical MP's no wriggle room. He would not have done this if he wasn't desperate. 

3.Boris has exposed his bargaining position to the EU. The one card Boris had was to do a deal with The Brexit Party and go for a hard Brexit. Nigel Farage made overtures. He stated that if Boris went for a hard Brexit, he'd stand his party down and let Boris romp home for an election. If Boris had cobbled together a list of demands and said to the EU "Accept this or I'll call an election, sign a pact with the Brexit Party and pull us out with no deal and no £39 million payment to you", then he'd have had leverage. But by Proroguing Parliament, he's said the opposite, which is why Nigel Farage is on the warpath. Farage knows that Boris wants a Theresa May light deal. He's in face saving territory. The move is purely to get this through with no debate. Boris knows Parliament will not accept a hard Brexit, so it will have to accept his deal, no matter how poor, if he refuses to defer the date or revoke article 50. I suspect that all the hard Brexiteers posting triumphantly on Twitter today, will be posting very different things in November.

4. Boris has shown contempt for his own party colleagues. The resignation of Ruth Davidson and Lord Young today show just how much damage he has caused. To lose your leader in Scotland and The House of Lords on the same day is a disaster for Boris. Ruth Davidson is highly respected and has rebuilt Tory fortunes. If Boris calls a snap election, he needs the MP's she brought to the table. As for Lord Young, his resignation shows what men of honour and experience think of his actions. When the dust settles, there will be many Tory peers who are very uncomfortable.

5. Boris has jettisoned all veneer of legitimacy, when he needed it most. Since 2010, we've only had a PM elected and commanding a majority in Parliament for a year. When David Cameron resigned after the referendum, Theresa May had the albatross of legitimacy around her neck. To fix this, she called an election and failed to secure a majority. She had to be propped up by the DUP in exchange for a huge bung. Now we have Boris, not elected and a member of a party that doesn't even have a majority in Parliament, and is one MP away from losing that majority, even with the DUP support. For a man in such a position to Prorogue Parliament is quite ridiculous. He has no legitimacy and has managed to make John McDonnell sound statesmanlike describing the process.

6. Boris has set a dangerous precedent. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that by the end of the year, we'll have a government lead by Jeremy Corbyn. Whilst the Tories lead in the polls at the moment, if Brexit descends into chaos, and a general election falls in the middle of food riots, there could well be a massive swing to Corbyn. Should Corbyn decide that he needs to act unconstitutionally to get his programme implemented, the Tories will be unable to criticise as they have set the precedent. It often seems like a good idea at the time to pull these jolly wheeze stunts, but the law of unintended consequences means that only years after, do we see the true damage that has been caused.

In summary, we have a Prime Minister who has exposed himself as a liar, shown the weakness of his position, damaged his negotiating position with the EU, demonstrated that he has contempt for his own colleagues, jettisoned his veneer of legitimacy and set a precedent that an incoming neo Marxist Corbyn government would find very handy indeed. Those are the six reasons why Boris will come to bitterly regret proroguing Parliament