Sadiq Khan wins a third term as London Mayor - Barneteye Analysis

 So Sadiq Khan has won a third term as London Mayor. Anyone who reads this blog will not be to surprised with that result. Given that we are a Barnet blog, of course we are interested in the Barnet aspect. Many local Tories will be surprised to learn that Sadiq Khan won comfortably in the Barnet and Camden area, far better than at the last election. Despite a lot of guff from local Tories, Sadiq Khan has clearly persuaded a lot of people in Barnet that he was the best man for the job. 

Here are the London Totals 

🚨 BREAKING: Sadiq Khan has won the London Mayoral Election

🔴 LAB: 1,088,225 (43.7%)
🔵 CON: 811,518 (32.6%)
🟠 LDEM: 145,184 (5.8%)
🟢 GRN: 145,114 (5.8%)
🟣 RFM: 78,865 (3.2%)
⚪️ INDP: 47,815 (1.9%)

3.2% swing from Conservative to Labour

— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) May 4, 2024

Here is the Barnet and Camden Vote

Here is the Barnet and Camden GLA vote, with Labours Anne Clarke winning.

We have declared the Barnet & Camden constituency Member of London Assembly results pic.twitter.com/prOkanGXOT

— Barnet Council (@BarnetCouncil) May 4, 2024

The first thing to note is that turnout was 40.5%. Less than half of Londoners who could vote, did vote. When Sadiq Khan was first elected, turnout was 45%. This was the lowest of the three elections Sadiq Khan has faced. To me, this apathy was unsurprising. I don't know too many people who felt inspired by Sadiq Khan or Susan Hall. The major reason for voting for them was that they weren't the other one. 

It was clear to me from the moment Susan Hall was selected by the Tories that they'd picked a totally unelectable candidate. It seemed that every time she went on the radio, she put her foot in the mouth and made gaffs.  Her keynote policy was the abolition of the ULEZ extension. Given that the zone has been in place for a year, hardly anyone in London has a non compliant car anymore. As such, all Hall was promising was dirty air for all. It was never going to win anywhere enough votes to change her fortunes. Her only other USP was that she was not Sadiq Khan and stood for the party with the best chance of usurping him. You simply don't win elections with no popular policies and no personality. 

It is interesting to note that I didn't even see an election leaflet from Sadiq Khan in Mill Hill. I don't know if he'd given up on us or if the dog ate them. What I do know is that the leafly parts of Barnet are of no interest to him. Despite this, Susan Hall still was too unnactractive a bet to win. As for the GLA, it was no surprise that Anne Clarke won again. She shed around 5,000 votes from last time, luckily for her, the Tories shed 11,000. In fact the only party that increased it's vote was Reform UK, up from around 4000 to around 7000. Clearly quite a few disgruntled Tories have jumped ship. It is also worth noting that even with the reform vote, the Tories would still have lost heavily. 

I saw a swivel eyed young man, from a hard right 'think tank' (is that rhyming slang) stating that the Tories need to move to the right to shore up their vote. His premise is that this will bring those 7,000 voters back onside. It is interesting to note that in 2008, the last time the Tories won in Barnet, Brian Coleman (remember him) won with 72,000 votes. At the time, the Tories were lead by David Cameron, who was doing his best to appeal to the centre as well as the right. 

What Cameron knew and it seems the Tories have forgotten, is that to win elections, you can't just appeal to a narrow group at the extremities of your party. After fourteen years in the wilderness, Labur seem to have taken that lesson on board. The Tories seem to be determined to try and defy the laws of electoral physics. I suspect that there will be a long period of rearranging deck chairs on the the decks of the Titanic, until they lose a few elections and the penny drops.

I do hope the London Tories realise that their obsession with NIMBY's and noise one trick pony groups, such as the anti ULEZ brigade will win you nothing. My advice, get yourself some policies and some vision. 

I've voted in every election since I was able to vote in 1982. This has been the one which energised me least. I get the apathy of voters. There are over six million voters in London and Sadiq Khan got around a fifth of them with 44% of voters. That is a sad indictment on all of our parties. Whilst I am sure Sadiq Khan is celebrating tonight, the fact that four out of five Londoners couldn't be bothered to vote for him, one way or another says it all. Could it be that people are not as convinced that elected Mayors are the answer?

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