I don't really follow US Presidential Race, and until yesterday, I'd have put my house on Donald Trump winning the US election. It seemed that all the stars were lining up for him. Joe Biden seemingly losing is marbles, Trump literally dodging a bullet. It all seemed to be going swimmingly for the Tangoman.
We were having a break for a couple of days on the South Downs, walking dogs and at the beach in West Wittering, so I wasn't watching much TV or listening to the radio. I'd managed to avoid the news. We returned last night, I nipped down to the studio to get some practice in and to work on some new material. When I got home, I put the news on. The top international story was the exchange of prisoners between Russia and the West. It seems that the Russians have been collecting poor suckers for a few years, as bargaining chips to get a few of the KGB/FSB hitmen etc back. The talks had been going on for a couple of years behind the scenes, making little progress. There had been talk that opposition leader in Russia Navalny was part of the deal, before Putin bumped him off.
I was gobsmacked to hear of the deal. For Putin, it is what is known as Realpolitik. Such deals are designed to achieve the maximum political gain. I had assumed that the deal was on hold until Trump was in the White House. That would give Trump a big win early in his career and show that he was a big player on the world stage, who could do the big deals. It would show that Putin was a man who the west could do business with and would be a precursor and an excuse for a 'deal' on Ukraine.
Then I got home and saw that it would be Kamala Harris and Joe Biden welcoming the hostages from the plane. It would be Harris who got the exposure and looked like the person who could get deals done. Why? It is pretty clear to me that Putin has made up his mind that Trump is going to lose and he needed to garner some political capital with Kamala Harris. Now you may think "Why should Putin be able to predict the future any better than anyone else?". Well, firstly he has the Russian state and the FSB/KGB working for him and advising him. The Russian state spends billions on intelligence. The second thing is that the Russians invested a huge amount of effort in getting Trump elected in the last two elections. This payed dividends in 2016, but when Biden won in 2020, it meant that there was already an ingrained hostility. The last thing Putin will want is another hostile US president. A Harris presidency offers the prospect of a reset. If he were to throw the kitchen sink at her with his army of Twitter bots etc, and she won, he'd be where he's been for the last four years. It is pretty clear to me that Putin does not want that. Whilst it may seem as if the war in Ukraine will grind on forever, for Putin this means that his economy will be miredin sanctions and ever more reliant on the likes of China, Iran and North Korea. Whilst this is a necessity for the current situation, it is massively holding Russia back. The support of Russia, North Korea and Iran comes with its own unique costs and problems.
If Putin can reset his relationship with Harris, negotiate a face saving deal in Ukraine, get some territory and a 'lasting peace deal' that he can sell at home as proof it was worth it, in exchange for a winding down of sanctions, he will be happy. Putin knows that Harris will be a far less sympathetic face in the White House, but we live in the real world. If Harris can broker a deal that is can be sold and wind down the tensions, she will have a good start to her presidency. Putin knows this.
Since Biden departed, Trump has seen ever more old, out of touch and perhaps slightly deranged. His behaviour is, shall we say, not Presidential. Whilst his opponent was even more doddery than him, this wasn't a problem, but Harris is unruffled by the attacks. The latest one, where Trump claimed she'd only been black for a few years was truly bizarre. I suspect Trump is simply slinging mud until he finds some that sticks. The trouble is that when it doesn't and he simply look silly, spiteful and a bit past it, it undermines him. Many Republicans are saying that his choice of Vice President is a disaster and the polling numbers have turned. Trumps USP was that, to his followers, he 'tells the truth'. The trouble is, when the sort of truth he tells are like the mutterings of a much loved old relative who's lost his marbles and just spouts embarrassing stories at weddings and wakes, it loses it's appeal. I have no doubt that the Americans who love Trump will vote for him come hell or high water, but the people in the centre, who were drifting towards Trump as they felt Biden had lost the plot are rapidly backpeddaling.
Now I don't advocate gambling. In fact I wrote a song called "Long Shot Didn't die" warning of the dangers of it, but of I was going to put a bet on anything, I'd put a bet on Harris. Paddy Power now have her at evens and Trump at 8/11. They say the bookies usually get it right, but it seems to me that the polls are turning and I think the price on Harris is a bargain. In the US, the Independent reports that Harris is bookies favourite for the first time. I suspect that you won't get this price again (unless Trump does a Biden and the Republicans find someone who is up to the job).
As it's Friday, here's a tune to cheer you up. As mentioned above, here is Longshot Didn't Die. A cautionary tale about gambling shenanigans.
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