The economy, stupid - Why Kamala Harris lost

Six weeks ago, I thought Harris was a shoe in. Six days ago, it was clear to me that Trump would win. Harris blew it. Why? To quote Former President Bill Clinton, The Economy, Stupid. The Democrats are historically the party of the blue collar workers, the lower middle classes, the workers. The people on the sharp edge of the economy, who suffer when times are bad. This is the core of the democrat vote. They want a candidate who talks about their problems. Whilst issues such as 'reproductive rights' are important, they are not what talks to the Democrat core. In the rest of the world, we see Trump very differently to the average American. They see him as a 'regular Joe'. They see him as a guy they could have a beer with and watch Baseball. They see him as successful and decisive. His message is simple "Make America Great Again". He talks about putting America first. Harris never addressed this. How can you hope to be become President when that's your opponents pitch and you have no catchy riposte? You might not like it but he ordinary Joes voted with their pockets. Biden won in 2020 as Trump was running on his record, which was awful. Kamala Harris wasn't associated with Bidens successes and Trump successfully painted her as the author of the regime's failures. That's how election in democracies work. Whether you like it or not, Trump won and he will be the President in January. Its not the end of the world, we had four years already of him and we survived. My Dad gave me one bit of important advice. Things are never as bad, or as good as you think they are at the time. 

Put your house on Kamala Harris winning the US Presidential election!

I don't really follow US Presidential Race,  and until yesterday, I'd have put my house on Donald Trump winning the US election. It seemed that all the stars were lining up for him. Joe Biden seemingly losing is marbles, Trump literally dodging a bullet. It all seemed to be going swimmingly for the Tangoman. 

We were having a break for a couple of days on the South Downs, walking dogs and at the beach in West Wittering, so I wasn't watching much TV or listening to the radio. I'd managed to avoid the news. We returned last night, I nipped down to the studio to get some practice in and to work on some new material. When I got home, I put the news on. The top international story was the exchange of prisoners between Russia and the West. It seems that the Russians have been collecting poor suckers for a few years, as bargaining chips to get a few of the KGB/FSB hitmen etc back. The talks had been going on for a couple of years behind the scenes, making little progress. There had been talk that opposition leader in Russia Navalny was part of the deal, before Putin bumped him off. 

I was gobsmacked to hear of the deal. For Putin, it is what is known as Realpolitik. Such deals are designed to achieve the maximum political gain. I had assumed that the deal was on hold until Trump was in the White House. That would give Trump a big win early in his career and show that he was a big player on the world stage, who could do the big deals. It would show that Putin was a man who the west could do business with and would be a precursor and an excuse for a 'deal' on Ukraine.

Then I got home and saw that it would be Kamala Harris and Joe Biden welcoming the hostages from the plane. It would be Harris who got the exposure and looked like the person who could get deals done. Why? It is pretty clear to me that Putin has made up his mind that Trump is going to lose and he needed to garner some political capital with Kamala Harris. Now you may think "Why should Putin be able to predict the future any better than anyone else?". Well, firstly he has the Russian state and the FSB/KGB working for him and advising him. The Russian state spends billions on intelligence. The second thing is that the Russians invested a huge amount of effort in getting Trump elected in the last two elections. This payed dividends in 2016, but when Biden won in 2020, it meant that there was already an ingrained hostility. The last thing Putin will want is another hostile US president. A Harris presidency offers the prospect of a reset. If he were to throw the kitchen sink at her with his army of Twitter bots etc, and she won, he'd be where he's been for the last four years. It is pretty clear to me that Putin does not want that. Whilst it may seem as if the war in Ukraine will grind on forever, for Putin this means that his economy will be miredin sanctions and ever more reliant on the likes of China, Iran and North Korea. Whilst this is a necessity for the current situation, it is massively holding Russia back. The support of Russia, North Korea and Iran comes with its own unique costs and problems. 

If Putin can reset his relationship with Harris, negotiate a face saving deal in Ukraine, get some territory and a 'lasting peace deal' that he can sell at home as proof it was worth it, in exchange for a winding down of sanctions, he will be happy. Putin knows that Harris will be a far less sympathetic face in the White House, but we live in the real world. If Harris can broker a deal that is can be sold and wind down the tensions, she will have a good start to her presidency. Putin knows this.

Since Biden departed, Trump has seen ever more old, out of touch and perhaps slightly deranged. His behaviour is, shall we say, not Presidential. Whilst his opponent was even more doddery than him, this wasn't a problem, but Harris is unruffled by the attacks. The latest one, where Trump claimed she'd only been black for a few years was truly bizarre. I suspect Trump is simply slinging mud until he finds some that sticks. The trouble is that when it doesn't and he simply look silly, spiteful and a bit past it, it undermines him. Many Republicans are saying that his choice of Vice President is a disaster and the polling numbers have turned. Trumps USP was that, to his followers, he 'tells the truth'. The trouble is, when the sort of truth he tells are like the mutterings of a much loved old relative who's lost his marbles and just spouts embarrassing stories at weddings and wakes, it loses it's appeal. I have no doubt that the Americans who love Trump will vote for him come hell or high water, but the people in the centre, who were drifting towards Trump as they felt Biden had lost the plot are rapidly backpeddaling. 

Now I don't advocate gambling. In fact I wrote a song called "Long Shot Didn't die" warning of the dangers of it, but of I was going to put a bet on anything, I'd put a bet on Harris. Paddy Power now have her at evens and Trump at 8/11. They say the bookies usually get it right, but it seems to me that the polls are turning and I think the price on Harris is a bargain. In the US, the Independent reports that Harris is bookies favourite for the first time. I suspect that you won't get this price again (unless Trump does a Biden and the Republicans find someone who is up to the job). 

As it's Friday, here's a tune to cheer you up. As mentioned above, here is Longshot Didn't Die. A cautionary tale about gambling shenanigans. 

Biden quits - what does this mean for Donald Trump?

 I am not in the least surprised that Joe Biden has stepped down, I was amazed he ran for a second term. Over the course of his Presidency, he's looked increasingly infirm and it has been quite upsetting to see. It is beyond me as to why it took until now for his friends and colleagues to persuade him to step aside. Back at the start of the year, I predicted that time would catch up with both Biden and Trump and I have to say that when I see Donald Trump, I do not see a man who looks in full command of his mind. A few years ago, a much loved person in my life developed dementia. I learned much about the condition. He would be quite able to read, to have a lucid conversation and at times he seemed perfectly with it. On occasion though, he'd start rambling, repeating himself and worst of all, getting angry (often for no reason). When I watch Trump speak, I see echoes of such behaviour. The worst aspect of this was how he would start ranting about random people. I have a friend who is a doctor and I discussed this. In laymans terms, he explained that as the brain realises it cannot process information correctly, it becomes agitated and this is directed at whatever is perceived as a threat or an irritant at that time. I'm not an American, I have no skin in that election, but every citizen of this planet runs the risk of being affected by irrational behaviour of the most powerful man on the planet. I was watching Trump speaking about Kamala Harris. There were two things that worried me. The first is the total lack of diplomatic language in Trumps words. The second was the almost irrational anger. I get that Trump is not a fan of the Vice President, but it used to be the case that we expected a modicum of decorum from Politicians. 

So what do I think of Kamala Harris's chances? It is almost impossible to tell at this point. The demographic shift in the USA since Trump won in 2016 should favour Harris. She is clearly completely sound mentally, so any democrats who were waivering due to Bidens failings, should be back on board. We've not seen her up against Trump. I am sure that will be an interesting debate. I doubt she'll make Biden style gaffes. Trump will try and portray her as a left winger who will drag America's economy  down the pan whilst opening the borders. Harris will have to have a decent strategy to counter this. On the plus side though, the issue has moved to Trumps mental capacity and ability to complete a full term. Being almost the same age as Biden, Trump may well set a trap for himself. The Democrats will be keeping a beady eye for any signs of dementia or any other infirmity. 

Sadly, it seems to me that this election will be more about who is fit to run the country, than about setting an agenda to take America forward. Trump was undone by the pandemic. The USA's response was appalling. Have Americans really forgotten?

My concern for Harris is that she seems to be very low key. My gut feeling is that to beat Trump, the democrats need a charismatic candidate who can give people some hope. I suspect that Harris will do very well with liberal Americans, who don't want restrictions on abortion, who want affordable healthcare and who do not like attacks on immigrant communities. On the other hand, there are few areas where Trump is strong that she will make a dent in. The hard core of blue collar white men who love Trump will never vote for Harris. The issue is that elections are not won in these areas. They are won on the margins. It is too early to know whether Harris will make inroads here. I suspect that if she does, Trump will lack the capacity to claw back people who are won over by calm debate rather than insults and bluster. I expect that we'll soon see the Crooked Kamala jibes come out. Trump will reprise his greatest hits, the ones he believes served him well. It is anyones guess how they will go down against a confident woman who has spent her whole life ignoring barbs and insults. 

It seems to me that Europeans have a lot of difficulty getting their head around why so many Americans seem to like Donald Trump. There have been comparisons with Boris Johnson. To me, such comparisons are wide of the mark. Johnson was around the political landscape for a very long time befoe he became PM. He was a popular Mayor of London and was seen as a 'bit of a laugh' by many. Trump wasn't involved in politics at all before he won in 2016. My view was that I thought many Americans thought Trump would be a good leader because he was seen as a strong leader through his TV appearences on The Apprentice. They felt that Trump was straight talking and would simply sack people who were not up to it. As a lot of Americans thought the politcal system was broken, they felt someone who would sack half of Congress was a great man. Trump failed miserably when he had his first term, but his supporters fell for his "We was robbed" rhetoric. In some ways, Trump losing and claiming he was robbed was something that disaffected Americans could buy into. The thing that interests me is how many Americans are disaffected with the political system and are attracted to this. It seems to me that they are not traditional Republicans. There is a certain lack of coherence in claiming to be a patriot to the flag, whilst wanting to tear down all of the traditional structures of government and follow someone who promoted insurgency. An American friend who is what might be called a 'sensible Republican' told me a month ago that Trump Biden was an impossible choice. I asked about Kamala Harris and his view was that the Democrats would be mad to pick her, but could win with a better candidate ( probably a white, middle class male). His view was that Harris would make him more, not less likely to vote Trump, but he also felt Harris may drag over constituencies that were turned off by Biden (the pro abortion lobby). I suspect when it comes down to it that the truth is that for many Republicans, Trump is the worst possible candidate, apart from whoever the Democrats pick. I have no idea who else in the Democrats would be better than Harris, I don't really follow their politics, but one thing is clear. Americans have a very clear choice if Harris stands. 

You may wonder why I've not mentioned the possibility of a different democrat candidate. I am not ruling it out, but if they are to do it, they will have to get a move on and there is no evidence that they have an appetite for another candidate.