Friday, 27 February 2026

My take on the Gorton & Denton By Election

What does the Gorton & Denton By Election really tell us, well here is the result, but what does it really tell us.

Turnout 47.6%

Lets start by a look at the General Election.

Candidate                  Party                      Votes     Share         Change 
Andrew Gwynne       Labour                   18,555     50.8%     -16.5% 
Lee Moffitt                Reform UK              5,142     14.1%        9.2% 
Amanda Gardner       Green Party              4,810     13.2%     10.6% 
Amir Burney             Workers Party           3,766     10.3%     10.3% 
Ruth Welsh                Conservative            2,888        7.9%     -11.0% 
John Reid                   Liberal Democrat    1,399        3.8%     -2.0%

Turnout 47%

It is interesting that despite all of the hype, the turnout was about the same. If you look at the combined vote of the right, Reform and Tories, it has gone up from 22% to 28%. Although on paper this looks good for Reform, a sensible analysis would conclude that as the seat was formerly Labour, many sat on their hands. I suspect the same is true of many Labour voters this time. Most people agree that Andy Burnham would have won, given his profile and his lack of association with Starmer. To my eyes, the Green vote is as much two fingers up to Starmer as it was an endorsement of the Greens. That is not to belittle a great performance by them. It is clear that left of centre voters rather like their approach. Policies such as "don't dump shit in our waterways" is a no-brainer winner. Reform shot themselves in the foot putting up a very iffy candidate. Was he really the best they can manage? If he is, then they are doomed. 

I suspect Starmer is privately rather chuffed. His nightmare is a mass defection of working class support to Reform. What we are seeing is that Reform are not winning elections. They do OK in the polls, but people vote for whoever is best placed to clobber them. I suspect that Starmer will take a bloody nose from the Greens, if it means Burnham is kept out and Reform humiliated. We are still very mid term and I'd have been amazed if voters hadn't spanked Starmer. In truth, when Burnham was stopped, I expected Labour to be single digits. Governments always get kicked in the nuts when they are performing badly mid term. Sadly, I suspect that Starmer will be more than happy with getting 25%. 

It is interesting watching the bleating of Reform. It is odd how they don't like the fact that they can't win real elections. 

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