I am not in the least surprised that Joe Biden has stepped down, I was amazed he ran for a second term. Over the course of his Presidency, he's looked increasingly infirm and it has been quite upsetting to see. It is beyond me as to why it took until now for his friends and colleagues to persuade him to step aside. Back at the start of the year, I predicted that time would catch up with both Biden and Trump and I have to say that when I see Donald Trump, I do not see a man who looks in full command of his mind. A few years ago, a much loved person in my life developed dementia. I learned much about the condition. He would be quite able to read, to have a lucid conversation and at times he seemed perfectly with it. On occasion though, he'd start rambling, repeating himself and worst of all, getting angry (often for no reason). When I watch Trump speak, I see echoes of such behaviour. The worst aspect of this was how he would start ranting about random people. I have a friend who is a doctor and I discussed this. In laymans terms, he explained that as the brain realises it cannot process information correctly, it becomes agitated and this is directed at whatever is perceived as a threat or an irritant at that time. I'm not an American, I have no skin in that election, but every citizen of this planet runs the risk of being affected by irrational behaviour of the most powerful man on the planet. I was watching Trump speaking about Kamala Harris. There were two things that worried me. The first is the total lack of diplomatic language in Trumps words. The second was the almost irrational anger. I get that Trump is not a fan of the Vice President, but it used to be the case that we expected a modicum of decorum from Politicians.
So what do I think of Kamala Harris's chances? It is almost impossible to tell at this point. The demographic shift in the USA since Trump won in 2016 should favour Harris. She is clearly completely sound mentally, so any democrats who were waivering due to Bidens failings, should be back on board. We've not seen her up against Trump. I am sure that will be an interesting debate. I doubt she'll make Biden style gaffes. Trump will try and portray her as a left winger who will drag America's economy down the pan whilst opening the borders. Harris will have to have a decent strategy to counter this. On the plus side though, the issue has moved to Trumps mental capacity and ability to complete a full term. Being almost the same age as Biden, Trump may well set a trap for himself. The Democrats will be keeping a beady eye for any signs of dementia or any other infirmity.
Sadly, it seems to me that this election will be more about who is fit to run the country, than about setting an agenda to take America forward. Trump was undone by the pandemic. The USA's response was appalling. Have Americans really forgotten?
My concern for Harris is that she seems to be very low key. My gut feeling is that to beat Trump, the democrats need a charismatic candidate who can give people some hope. I suspect that Harris will do very well with liberal Americans, who don't want restrictions on abortion, who want affordable healthcare and who do not like attacks on immigrant communities. On the other hand, there are few areas where Trump is strong that she will make a dent in. The hard core of blue collar white men who love Trump will never vote for Harris. The issue is that elections are not won in these areas. They are won on the margins. It is too early to know whether Harris will make inroads here. I suspect that if she does, Trump will lack the capacity to claw back people who are won over by calm debate rather than insults and bluster. I expect that we'll soon see the Crooked Kamala jibes come out. Trump will reprise his greatest hits, the ones he believes served him well. It is anyones guess how they will go down against a confident woman who has spent her whole life ignoring barbs and insults.
It seems to me that Europeans have a lot of difficulty getting their head around why so many Americans seem to like Donald Trump. There have been comparisons with Boris Johnson. To me, such comparisons are wide of the mark. Johnson was around the political landscape for a very long time befoe he became PM. He was a popular Mayor of London and was seen as a 'bit of a laugh' by many. Trump wasn't involved in politics at all before he won in 2016. My view was that I thought many Americans thought Trump would be a good leader because he was seen as a strong leader through his TV appearences on The Apprentice. They felt that Trump was straight talking and would simply sack people who were not up to it. As a lot of Americans thought the politcal system was broken, they felt someone who would sack half of Congress was a great man. Trump failed miserably when he had his first term, but his supporters fell for his "We was robbed" rhetoric. In some ways, Trump losing and claiming he was robbed was something that disaffected Americans could buy into. The thing that interests me is how many Americans are disaffected with the political system and are attracted to this. It seems to me that they are not traditional Republicans. There is a certain lack of coherence in claiming to be a patriot to the flag, whilst wanting to tear down all of the traditional structures of government and follow someone who promoted insurgency. An American friend who is what might be called a 'sensible Republican' told me a month ago that Trump Biden was an impossible choice. I asked about Kamala Harris and his view was that the Democrats would be mad to pick her, but could win with a better candidate ( probably a white, middle class male). His view was that Harris would make him more, not less likely to vote Trump, but he also felt Harris may drag over constituencies that were turned off by Biden (the pro abortion lobby). I suspect when it comes down to it that the truth is that for many Republicans, Trump is the worst possible candidate, apart from whoever the Democrats pick. I have no idea who else in the Democrats would be better than Harris, I don't really follow their politics, but one thing is clear. Americans have a very clear choice if Harris stands.
You may wonder why I've not mentioned the possibility of a different democrat candidate. I am not ruling it out, but if they are to do it, they will have to get a move on and there is no evidence that they have an appetite for another candidate.
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